The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
👉 Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Jahmyr Gibbs during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as particularly actionable.
📈 Positive Regression CandidatesBrian Thomas, Jr. (JAC)
BTJ made his way into last week’s Regression Files because the young man, at long last, had some sort of defined role in a Jacksonville offense that has cooked opposing defenses of late. I think his positive regression can continue in Week 16.
I wrote last week that Thomas has become the unquestioned air yards eater in the pass-first Jaguars offense, and while that’s not a role that provides anything close to a safe weekly statistical floor, it gives Thomas some juice as an upside WR3 option.
Thomas’ air yard eating continued unabated in Week 15 against the Jets. He took in 142 air yards (43 percent of the team’s total), the ninth most among all pass catchers in Week 15. He was targeted on a hefty 25 percent of his routes too. Jakobi Meyers leads the Jags with a 33 percent first-read target share since Week 13 while Thomas has seen 26 percent of the first-read looks from Trevor Lawrence. It makes for a high-variance profile that can work in some (most) situations.
BTJ is averaging 21 air yards per target over the past three games. You know what you’re getting: It either hits or it doesn’t, without much in between. Against a Broncos defense allowing the second most team air yards per game (291) and the second most downfield attempts per game (4.6), Thomas has a clear path to atoning for the statistical sins of his early season and being a difference maker in fantasy semifinal week.
Rashee Rice (KC)
UPDATE: Rice on Wednesday entered the league’s concussion protocol. He’s highly questionable for Week 16.
Folks during Monday afternoon’s Rotoworld Waiver Wired YouTube chat were all but begging me and RotoPat for permission to bench Rice (and Travis Kelce) in Week 16 against the Titans after Patrick Mahomes suffered a season-ending knee injury last week against the Chargers.
I get it. You don’t want to pin your semifinal hopes on the likes of Gardner Minshew, who might eventually break Josh Johnson’s record for most NFL stops in league history. I think Minshew can do what we need him to do, however. Namely, to feed Rice — and maybe Kelce — short and intermediate targets that can turn Rice back into the PPR scam we knew in 2024 and for parts of this season.
Rice isn’t good. Let’s be clear about that. You are what your usage is though, and Rice’s has been pretty good of late. Rice has 22 first-read targets over KC’s past three games; no one else has more than 11 over that span. Rice leads the Chiefs with a 29 percent targets per route run rate over those three games while leading the team in pass routes.
He’s just run cold. It happens. Last week against the Chargers, Rice had nearly 18 expected fantasy points but 13 real-life fantasy points. Justin Jefferson was the only receiver to run colder in Week 15. Ja’Marr Chase is the only NFL wideout with more expected fantasy points than Rice over the past three weeks.
It speaks to an extremely fantasy-friendly profile for Rice, who should be treated as a WR2 in Week 16 against a Titans secondary giving up the league’s fifth highest adjusted yards per pass attempt and the fourth highest EPA per drop back. Tennessee, as I mentioned in last week’s matchup column, has become one of the game’s most reliable pass-funnel defenses.
Matthew Golden (GB)
A season of total irrelevance for Green Bay’s rookie wideout could end with some of the good kind of regression now that Christian Watson is sidelined with yet another injury, this one a chest injury that required a trip to the hospital after the Packers’ Week 15 loss to the Broncos.
Golden, finally healthy, could take Watson’s role this week against the Bears. Against the Broncos last week, Golden ran 35 percent of the team’s pass routes and was second on the team behind Watson with 70 air yards, at 17.5 air yards per target. He ended with 55 yards on three grabs.
Watson over the past month has dominated with a 38 percent air yards in the Green Bay offense. No other Packers pass catcher has an air yards share above 13 percent. In fact, only five receivers in the NFL have more air yards than Watson over the past four weeks. His absence would open up an air yards cavern that Golden could fill against Chicago.
That the Bears in 2025 have faced the league’s fourth highest downfield passing rate (13 percent) suggests Jordan Love could let it rip in Week 16. We saw Love air it out against these Bears in Week 2, when the Packers had 391 total team air yards, far higher than their season-long average of 255 air yards per game. Green Bay was 3 percent over its expected pass rate in that game. Another glut of air yards would be quite the development for Golden if Watson is out.
📉 Negative Regression CandidatesMatthew Stafford (LAR)
Only the sharpest analytical minds of this generation could tell you Stafford will regress with Davante Adams sidelined. No normal mind could conceive of such insight.
It’s more than that though. Of course Stafford will miss his 1B option in Week 16 against a stingy Seattle secondary that limited the Rams to 130 passing yards on 28 drop backs in Week 11. The Rams without Adams are more than a little likely to lean hard on the run game this week (and every week without Adams), stripping Stafford of much of his touchdown-based upside.
You know by now that Adams functions as the rare goal line receiver. Twenty-three of Stafford’s 37 touchdown tosses this year have come inside the ten yard line (green zone). He leads the league in both inside-the-ten and inside-the-five pass attempts, and headed into Week 15, the Rams were 14 percent over their expected pass rate inside the ten yard line. That changed dramatically in Week 15, when the Rams were 11 percent below their expected green zone pass rate with Adams sidelined. That’s a (big) blow to Stafford’s fantasy profile.
Be careful about how you use Stafford in one-QB formats this week. I don’t think he’s a top-12 option with Adams out in an ugly road matchup against a tough defense. I’d happily start Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Jared Goff over Stafford in fantasy semifinal week. The Regression Reaper cometh.
DJ Moore (CHI)
You’ve lost sleep over benching Moore in Week 15. Or maybe you’ve lost sleep because you had a Week 15 playoff bye week and now feel compelled to use Moore as a flex play in Week 16 against Green Bay. Either way, DJ Moore has been bad for your nightly REM cycles and general mood. I get it.
Moore last week against the Browns caught four of five yards for 69 yards and a touchdown with Rome Odunze (foot) sidelined and Luther Burden leaving the game with an ankle issue. The two touchdowns were nice — if you were desperate enough to play Moore — but the rest of his receiving profile was iffy, even as the only healthy starting wideout for Chicago.
Moore was targeted on 20 percent of his routes against the Browns, well behind team leader Colston Loveland (28 percent targets per route). While he led the team with a 41 percent air yards share, Moore only saw 17.5 percent of the team’s targets against Cleveland. Moore’s three first-read targets in Week 15 ranked fourth among Bears pass catcher (Burden led the way with six). Moore has 10.2 expected fantasy points against the Browns; 31 receivers had a higher expected points output in Week 15. It was hardly a dominant showing.
If Burden and Odunze are out in Week 16, Moore becomes viable as a WR3/4 or a flex in 12-team formats. Drop back volume will likely be an issue, however. The Packers are a pronounced run funnel defense, seeing a league-low 44 percent neutral pass rate against them since Week 9. The Bears, meanwhile, have been among the run heaviest teams over the past six weeks (47 percent neural pass rate). With somewhat normal game script, we’re going to see a lot of the Chicago running backs in Week 16.
Can Moore get there on 5-6 targets? That should be the question you’re asking when fretting about using him in your semifinal lineup.