With apologies to Julian Fellowes, we’ve entered the Guilded Age of awards season. After the early December wave of critics’ group awards, “film enthusiast” organizations and whoever is in the Golden Globes now offered their takes on the field of contenders, the last week or so has seen attention shifting to the all-important guilds that make up the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences — the groups that actually vote on the Oscars. And people tend to forget that there is a marked contrast in the tastes between all those non-Academy groups and the guilds, only to be immediately reminded of that discrepancy when the first Oscar shortlists dropped in the waning days of the year.
Case in point: soon after the initial 12 shortlists were released, Film Twitter was filled with hot takes about the strong showing by Wicked: For Good, a movie that been declared DOA in the Oscar race due to underwhelming critical reaction and a mixed track record in the precursor nominations and awards. Jon M. Chu’s musical sequel received eight mentions across eight categories — including Best Cinematography and Best Visual Effects — tying with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners for the most-mentioned movie.
Even though Wicked: For Good is unlikely to match Coogler’s overall Oscar count when nominations are revealed on Jan. 22, it’s exactly the kind of crafts-intensive spectacle that makes guild members’ hearts sing. The same goes for Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, which was met with shrugs by critics on the film festival circuit, but clearly connected with Academy artisans to the tune of six short list mentions — the most of any Netflix contender.
As the largest Academy branch, the Screen Actors Guild is a particularly ripe target for vote-seeking contenders, especially as the deadline for the first round period in SAG’s newly renamed Actor Awards approaches on Jan. 4. Tag along with Inside Track as we recount our trips to a pair of SAG-heavy FYC events in New York this week, and touch on how one prominent Oscar hopeful’s faith in the guilds was shaken this week.
Supremely SAG
It was a tale of two Martys. I was in the room when Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme had its first-ever public showing as the “secret screening” title at the 63rd edition of the New York Film Festival. That audience consisted of critics, industry folks, the occasional famous face (Matthew Broderick, for example) and festival-goers lucky enough to score an elusive ticket. Given the makeup of that crowd and the circumstances around the screening, the atmosphere in the room was understandably electric and when Safdie took the stage — bringing out star Timothée Chalamet not long after — it sparked an enthusiasm that powered the crowd through the two-and-a-half hour film and generated the kind of euphoric social media response that any serious contender hopes for.
So it’s no surprise that Marty Supreme has been racking up the points at precursor ceremonies, including eight nominations at the Critics’ Choice Awards and three at the Golden Globes. And while Chalamet took point on keeping the movie in the public eye with a series of viral stunts, A24 has been careful to keep the guilds in its sights, making its below-the-line talent — including production designer Jack Fisk and director of photography Darius Khondji — readily available for press and FYC events. That can account for the movie’s placement on four Oscar shortlists, including Best Cinematography and Best Makeup and Hairstyling.
My second round with Marty Mauser came at a packed SAG screening at Manhattan’s DGA Theater earlier this week, and it was interesting to observe the reaction in the crowd as the movie unspooled, absent the “secret screening” energy that dominated my previous viewing. The audience was engaged and vocally responsive for the first 30 to 40 minutes, but their attention seemed to wane as the movie entered its busy middle section, snapping back into focus when Marty made his last stand at the ping-pong table. (I was seated in a row occupied by another Timothy — as in Hutton — and the Ordinary People Oscar winner clearly enjoyed that rousing finale.)
Chalamet also struck a notably different tone with the SAG crowd than he did at NYFF where he hyped the movie as a “love letter to New York.” In recent weeks, the boisterous 29-year-old actor has fought off charges of “arrogance” for the less-than-humble way he’s discussed his career and this movie in particular. During a post-screening Q&A, moderator David Ehrlich directly addressed that subject, telling Chalamet that he’s in the right to call Marty Supreme his best performance, inspiring applause from some in the room. Chalamet graciously accepted the compliment, but declined to double down, instead remarking: “Maybe I get carried away in speaking with that Marty Mauser spirit.”
Certainly, there’s no danger of Chalamet missing out on a Best Actor nomination — no matter how carried away he gets on the promotional circuit. The question is whether those antics might cost him the support he needs for a win over his friend and mentor Leonardo DiCaprio, who is currently holding the No. 1 spot on Gold Derby’s leaderboard for One Battle After Another.
Funnily enough, costar Kevin O’Leary touched on another “Can he win?” talking point around Chalamet’s alter ego during the Q&A, revealing that he thinks Marty is a jerk who gets rewarded instead of punished for his behavior. (For the record, the Shark Tank star also made it clear that he loves the movie.) Ehrlich gamely tried to stick up for the ping-pong wizard, pointing out the rare moments in the film where Marty does think of others instead of himself. But O’Leary took his argument to the crowd, asking for a show of hands about whether or not the title character deserves his happy ending. The result? More nays than yays — make of that what you will.
Best Actor
1.
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
2.
Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
3.
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
4.
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
5.
6.
Joel Edgerton
Train Dreams
7.
8.
9.
Jeremy Allen White
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
10.
Dwayne Johnson
The Smashing Machine
Stranger danger
Full house SAG screenings aren’t just a perk enjoyed by Oscar contenders. The Metrograph theater in downtown Manhattan was nearly turned upside down by a Demogorgon-sized crowd of eager Stranger Things fans during a Netflix-hosted FYC event for the show’s fifth and final season. With the series finale set for Dec. 31, this is the last time that the mothership series will be eligible for 2026’s Actor Awards-to-Emmy corridor. And Stranger Things is already absent from one high profile ceremony that takes place during that time frame; Golden Globes voters rolled their D20s on snubbing the final season.
Then again, the Golden Globes hasn’t paid the series much mind since its first season way back in 2016. Stranger Things has enjoyed better returns with SAG voters and at the Emmys, earning three nominations — and one win — for Best TV Drama Ensemble at the Actor Awards and four Best Drama Series Emmy nods for each of its four seasons to date. This time around, Netflix is making a concentrated effort to promote the work of the never-nominated members of the show’s young cast, particularly Noah Schnapp, whose final season performance was extensively praised by costars Maya Hake and creators Matt and Ross Duffer at a Q&A following a screening of Season 5’s fourth episode.
“It was so exciting and means so much to have [the Duffers] put so much trust in not just me, but all of us, and give us such great opportunities in this last season,” Schnapp remarked, giving Chalamet an example for how to play the humble card. “With such a wide cast, they’re able to give everyone so much time and write to everyone’s strengths. You really see everyone shine in our last season.” Despite being given center stage, the cast declined to stick around and work the room after the panel. Instead, Schnapp and his in-demand costars made a rapid exit amid a phalanx of security guards, while the Duffers gamely greeted well-wishers on the theater’s cramped second floor before bailing early. We’ll chalk that up to the ceaseless demands of a months-long farewell press tour.
Right now, Stranger Things holds the No. 6 spot on our Best TV Drama Ensemble leaderboard, and has to knock out either The Gilded Age or The Morning Show to make the final five. The latter certainly seems vulnerable coming off of an underwhelming Season 4 and lacking the powerful “final season” narrative that Stranger Things enjoys. When all is said and done, the Hellfire Club should be able to run up that hill past the combined star power of Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon.
TV Drama Ensemble
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Last will and testament
By the way, while that Stranger Things screening was a SAG event, other guilds found their way into the theater as well. I sat next to a PGA member who called It: Welcome to Derry one of their favorite fall shows and also shared two favorites on the feature film side — One Battle After Another and… Marty Supreme. But when I mentioned that The Testament of Ann Lee ranks among my best of the year, they replied: “Oh… I haven’t seen that yet.”
Sadly, that seems to be par for the course with Mona Fastvold’s boldly conceived period musical, which I first saw at the Toronto International Film Festival in September when it was still seeking distribution. Searchlight gamely stepped up and launched the movie on an accelerated awards circuit run that included stops at regional festivals like Woodstock, intimate dinners with critics’ groups and stabs at viral moments like Amanda Seyfried singing one of the movie’s Shaker hymns for an invite-only audience.
Despite all those great efforts in service of a great movie, though, The Testament of Ann Lee was completely blanked on the Oscar shortlists — even in categories where many (myself among them) assumed it would be guaranteed a spot, including Best Original Song, Best Cinematography for Will Rexer, and Best Makeup and Hairstyling for its period detail. Given that Searchlight acquired the film relatively late in the cycle and had to book screenings in a crowded stretch, perhaps this is a case where not enough guild voters — like my PGA seatmate — were able to see the movie ahead of their various deadlines. Or perhaps enough of them did see it… and it simply didn’t sing to them in the same way it did to its most vocal champions.
Now it’s up to SAG voters to keep our faith in Seyfried’s Best Actress viability alive. The actress has already dipped out of the Top 5 on our leaderboard, swapping places with One Battle After Another newcomer Chase Infiniti. More FYC screenings are planned before and after the movie’s Christmas Day release as Mother Ann Lee prepares for her final sermon.
Best Actress
1.
2.
Renate Reinsve
Sentimental Value
3.
Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
4.
5.
Chase Infiniti
One Battle After Another
6.
Amanda Seyfried
The Testament of Ann Lee
7.
Cynthia Erivo
Wicked: For Good
8.
Jennifer Lawrence
Die, My Love
9.
Kate Hudson
Song Sung Blue
10.
Julia Roberts
After the Hunt
Secret agent man
In case there was any doubt about how the Academy’s increasingly diverse and global membership has impacted the awards race, we have one word for you: Sirāt. As expected, Spanish auteur Óliver Laxe’s film received a Best International Feature mention, but less expected was its four additional mentions for Best Casting, Best Cinematography, Best Score, and Best Sound. For the record, the Casting shortlist also included Brazil’s The Secret Agent and Norway’s still-popular Sentimental Value, the latter of which was also among the Cinematography shortlists alongside France’s Nouvelle Vague and Germany’s Sound of Falling. Clearly, those guilds are looking abroad and liking what they see.
The same global enthusiasm pervades other branches as well. We recently spoke with SAG power couple Carrie Coon and Tracy Letts — who is also a WGA member — and they made it clear that international fare is at the top of their screener pile. Their current favorites? Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice and The Secret Agent and its star, Wagner Moura. “He’s just a phenomenal actor,” Coon raved of the Brazilian leading man, who is a key part of the film’s massive surge in the Best Actor and Best Picture races, where it’s currently ahead of Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash in our odds. That’s gilded compliment from a guild superstar.
Best Picture
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
And speaking of foreign fare, another shortlisted entry, Argentina’s Belén, has been actively courting voters. Dolores Fonzi’s based-on-a-true-story abortion drama added the most screenings of any film over the past week, according to exclusive intel provided by our friends at FYCit. The film, which Fonzi described to us “as a very emotional movie and very personal,” is looking to make up ground in the Best International Film race, where it currently sits at No. 10 in our odds.
Best International Film
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
And finally…
This will be the last Inside Track of 2025 as we gear up for our own Christmas vacation — squirrels not invited. Enjoy your holiday rest, watch some great movies, and we’ll see you back here in January.
Note: Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions is owned by Penske Media Eldridge, a joint venture between Eldridge and Penske Media Corporation, which owns Gold Derby.