Avatar: Fire and Ash has blazed out of the gate with the movie’s opening weekend box office projections to exceeding $350 million worldwide. This third installment arrives a mere three years after the previous sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, which took 13 years for director James Cameron to make. And his next trip to Pandora is at least another five years away.
Hollywood is waiting to see if Fire and Ash can replicate the response to the first two Avatar films, which both rank among the highest-grossing movies ever made, banking more than $2 billion each. It’s a high bar to live up to, and the future of the franchise may depend on just how well Fire and Ash performs.
Cameron has already indicated that he still has plans to make Avatar 4 and Avatar 5, having completed scripts for both and film portions of the former. As we await the box-office verdict for Fire and Ash, Gold Derby has assembled everything we know about the next two installments.
James Cameron and Oona Chaplin on the set of ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash‘Mark Fellman/20th Century Studios
When are Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 coming out?
Both of the remaining sequels were given release dates in 2023; Avatar 4 is currently slated for Dec. 21, 2029 and Avatar 5 will follow on Dec. 19, 2031.
Do both Avatar sequels have a greenlight?
We certainly thought so, especially since Cameron has already filmed part of Avatar 4. But during his recent appearance on the Matthew Belloni’s podcast, The Town, Cameron expressed some doubt about whether the sequels should Fire and Ash fall short of the success of the first two films.
“[The budget] is one metric f–k ton of money, which means we have to make two metric f–k tons of money to make a profit,” said Cameron. “I have no doubt in my mind that this movie will make money. The question is, does it make enough money to justify doing it again?”
Cameron went on to say that he’s at peace with leaving the franchise if Fire and Ash isn’t as successful as it needs to be, and has an alternate plan to wrap things up.
“I’ve been in Avatar land for 20 years,” related Cameron. “Actually 30 years, because I wrote it in ‘95, but I wasn’t working continuously on it for those first 10 years. If this is where it ends, cool. … There’s one open thread [after Fire and Ash]. I’ll write a book!”
‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’20th Century Studios
What are the budgets for Avatar 4 and 5?
Or, to use Cameron-speak, what exactly is a metric f–k ton?
We don’t know yet, but we can make an educated guess. Avatar: The Way of Water is estimated to have cost between $350 million and $460 million, while Avatar: Fire and Ash, which was shot concurrently, reportedly had a budget of more than $400 million.
Given those numbers, it stands to reason that Avatar 4 and 5 will likely cost at least $400 million per film or approximately $800 million for the pair. Both films would have to rank among the highest-grossing movies of all time to make a profit. The first two Avatar movies pulled that off, but it remains to be seen if the third film will join their ranks. At this scale, it’s easy to see why even Cameron is uncertain about the fate of the sequels.
James Cameron, Zoe Saldaña and Sam Worthington on the set of Avatar: Fire and Ash20th Century Studios
What do we know about the plots for Avatar 4 and 5?
Earlier this year, Cameron indicated The Way of Water and Fire and Ash “tell one big story,” adding that Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 will also function as a two-movie storyline.
“It kind of stops for a beat after the end of 3,” Cameron said. “I don’t mean we’ll necessarily stop in production, but the story kind of stops and then it jumps forward in time a little bit.” In 2022, the late Avatar producer Jon Landau revealed that the beginning of Avatar 4 has already been filmed.
“We’ve completed most of the first act of Avatar 4 and there were logistical reasons why we needed to do that,” said Landau. “We’ve designed most of the whole movie for Avatar 4, but we haven’t actually filmed all of it. Just the first act.”
A subsequent Variety report in 2024 confirmed that Cameron shot all of the live-action scenes for Avatar 4’s first act, which takes place within the same time frame as Fire and Ash before the story jumps forward six years. The second and third acts have yet to be filmed.
The young cast of ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’20th Century Studios
“We even did part of movie four because our young characters are all going to have a big time jump in movie four,” said Cameron. “We see them and then we go away for six years and we come back. And so the part where we come back is the part we haven’t shot yet. So we’ll start on that after [Fire and Ash] is released.”
Landau, who died in July 2024 and to whom Fire and Ash is dedicated, also disclosed that part of Avatar 5 will take place away from Pandora and involve Zoe Saldaña’s character.
“In [Avatar 5], there is a section of the story where we go to Earth. And we go to it to open people’s eyes, open Neytiri’s eyes, to what exists on Earth,” said Landau. “Earth is not just represented by the RDA. Just like you’re defined by the choices you make in life, not all humans are bad. Not all Na’vi are good. And that’s the case here on Earth. And we want to expose Neytiri to that.”
Zoe Saldaña on the set Mark Fellman/20th Century Studios
Earth was only briefly glimpsed in the first Avatar, but we can infer that things are dire enough that humanity staged a second invasion of Pandora after being repelled from the planet in the original movie. The big questions about Neytiri’s future journey to Earth are simple: Why is she going there? And who’s going with her?
Perhaps the answer to those questions has to do with the rumored title of Avatar 5, The Quest for Eywa. Cameron has confirmed that title is under consideration, but he has yet to say whether the final film will include that name.
Meanwhile, Oscar-nominated production designer Dylan Cole told Gold Derby that his team already has concept art for the next two movies, although a lot of those designs are in early stages. “We know in broad strokes where we’re going design-wise in the next movies,” he revealed. “We did all of those designs before we had the scripts for the next movies, and now that the scripts are in, there’s tailoring and set-building to be done. But we’re certainly not starting from scratch.”
What Does James Cameron want to do next?
“I feel I’m at a bit of a crossroads,” said Cameron during a recent interview with The Hollywood Reporter. “Do I want [Fire and Ash] to be a wild success — which almost compels me to continue and make two more Avatar movies? Or do I want it to fail just enough that I can justify doing something else?”
Sigourney Weaver and James CameronMark Fellman/20th Century Studios/Courtesy Everett Collection
“I’ve got other stories to tell,” added Cameron. “And I’ve got other stories to tell within Avatar. What won’t happen is, I won’t go down the rabbit hole of exclusively making only Avatar for multiple years. I’m going to figure out another way that involves more collaboration. I’m not saying I’m going to step away as a director, but I’m going to pull back from being as hands-on with every tiny aspect of the process.”
As part of the same interview feature, Cameron confirmed that he is working on a new Terminator movie… and Arnold Schwarzenegger will not be a part of it.
“Once the dust clears on Avatar, I’m going to really plunge into [Terminator],” said Cameron. “There are a lot of narrative problems to solve. The biggest is how do I stay enough ahead of what’s really happening to make it science fiction? … I can safely say [Schwarzenegger] won’t be [in it]. It’s time for a new generation of characters. I insisted Arnold had to be involved in Terminator: Dark Fate, and it was a great finish to him playing the T-800. There needs to be a broader interpretation of Terminator and the idea of a time war and super intelligence. I want to do new stuff that people aren’t imagining.”