For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Boston Red Sox.
Batters
After three years fumbling around the .500 mark and being firmly out of the AL East discussion, the Red Sox returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2021, and were still fighting for the AL East title as late as early September. The season ended with the unsatisfactory conclusion of dropping the Wild Card Series to the Yankees in three games. The Red Sox are a team I have lot of conflicting emotions about. I still don’t think the Mookie Betts situation was handled all that well, and I think they’ve missed some upside opportunities by generally being very quiet at trade deadlines. I also wonder if the whole Alex Bregman–Rafael Devers situation earlier this year could have been avoided with better communication. But this is also a franchise that does big things to improve the team; trading for Garrett Crochet was a huge play, signing Bregman last year was bold, and acquiring both Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras from the Cardinals in separate swaps this offseason were shrewd moves to target specific team problems. I guess the best way to describe the franchise now is “unsentimental.”
However they got here, ZiPS projects the lineup to be an incredibly solid, deep group, with the weakest spots — second base, third base, and catcher — still projecting to be average or better. This isn’t just an artifact of aggressive playing time projections, either, as ZiPS sees a lot of value in the the stable of backups and role players. That Boston was able to send prospects to the White Sox sufficient to land Crochet last offseason while still graduating several prospects to the majors reflects how quietly excellent the organization’s developmental pipeline has been.
One can see why there’s so much talk about a possible Jarren Duran trade that may or may not involve Ketel Marte. Duran will get plenty of playing time in Boston, but he’s probably even more valuable to a team like Arizona than the Red Sox, who are without any real outfield holes now that Roman Anthony has successfully reached the majors. Kristian Campbell’s projection has taken a big hit, due to a lousy major league debut and a surprisingly underwhelming performance at Triple-A after his demotion; he still projects to have a solid future, though it may not be in Boston. I’m not predicting Trevor Story to be as healthy as our Depth Charts expect, but it was nice to see him get a fully healthy season in for the first time in a while.
Adding Contreras was a particularly nice deal. If Duran is more valuable to another team than Boston, then Boston is arguably one of the absolute best places for Contreras. No, he isn’t a star, but the Red Sox are prime contenders, and that means they need certainty here rather than someone who could possibly bring higher upside. The Sox cobbled together replacements at first base after Triston Casas ruptured his patella, but that’s a tough position to cobble together offense for on the fly, and Red Sox first basemen only combined for a .244/.305/.386, -0.7 WAR line, easily the worst production at the position of any playoff team this year. Casas’ injury in 2025 and a fractured rib in 2024 cost him a lot of playing time, and even if there’s an expectation that he can turn things around, Boston is in a tough position to actually have to count on that. I still think Casas can have success in the majors, but it may simply be with a franchise that can take a riskier approach.
I’m actually mildly annoyed there isn’t more to complain about, since I’m a man who likes snark, and since I’m from Baltimore, any Red Sox success may hinder the Orioles.
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Pitchers
If you asked me after the World Series what the Red Sox most needed in the pitching department, I’d have said a true no. 2 starter between Crochet at the top and their deep stable of mid-rotation starters. They addressed their biggest offensive weakness with a trade, and they did the same thing here, acquiring Gray from the Cardinals. And as with the Crochet trade, they did it without giving up anyone they desperately did not want to lose; Brandon Clarke could be a real plus for the Cardinals someday, but there are a lot of things that need to happen for him to get there.
Crochet has the second-best WAR projection for a pitcher in ZiPS, behind only Tarik Skubal, so there’s no ZiPS reasons to question Crochet’s bonafides as a beast of an ace. No other members of the rotation besides Crochet and Gray get amazing projections, but there are a lot of absolutely useful projections, good enough to make the Red Sox and most of their fans happy. Brayan Bello is a dependable number three, and ZiPS places Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kutter Crawford, Kyle Harrison, Patrick Sandoval, and Johan Oviedo in roughly the same tier of average-ish performance. Basically, pulling any two out of the hat gives the Sox one of the better 4/5 situations in the majors. And you can argue that basically all of them have an upside scenario that would at least put them at Gray-level performance, though I’m a little less bullish on Oviedo. A bunch of arms with question and upside is the Dodgers’ approach, and I think it’ll work well here.
Aroldis Chapman has some downside risk due to age, but he was terrific in 2025, when he cut out the walks that had long plagued his profile as his sinker increasingly became a larger part of his arsenal. It’s rare to see pitchers change what makes them successful as they approach 40, and outside of those age concerns, there’s no real reason to worry about him. The days of experimenting with Garrett Whitlock as a starter might be over, but he successfully came back from injury as a dynamite setup man. Likewise, Jordan Hicks is best used as a reliever. Of the projected bullpen, ZiPS is really uneasy about only Zack Kelly. It also thinks that Ryan Watson, a Rule 5 reliever picked up in a trade with the A’s, was a sneaky-good move.
All told, ZiPS thinks the Red Sox ought to eclipse 90 wins and be seriously in the fight for the AL East title. ZiPS also thinks that Boston has less downside than its competition, and an awful lot would have to go wrong for this team to go back to where it was from 2022-24.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
3YOPS+
RC
Roman Anthony
588
.267
.369
.443
126
.176
.341
7
4.0
.355
129
85
Jarren Duran
643
.259
.326
.445
113
.186
.320
11
3.7
.332
110
91
Ceddanne Rafaela
582
.264
.307
.430
103
.166
.313
11
3.6
.318
104
79
Alex Bregman
568
.251
.342
.415
111
.164
.266
2
3.1
.331
107
71
Wilyer Abreu
458
.245
.328
.438
112
.193
.297
9
2.5
.330
111
61
Trevor Story
543
.255
.301
.418
98
.163
.327
-2
2.4
.310
93
68
Willson Contreras
478
.254
.350
.443
120
.189
.315
1
2.2
.346
114
65
Kristian Campbell
559
.246
.336
.373
99
.126
.325
-4
1.8
.316
101
64
Nate Eaton
459
.246
.307
.386
93
.140
.312
4
1.8
.303
89
55
David Hamilton
374
.228
.298
.359
83
.131
.282
7
1.8
.291
84
46
Carlos Narváez
418
.224
.307
.362
87
.138
.291
3
1.6
.296
88
42
Vinny Capra
344
.244
.313
.351
86
.107
.298
7
1.5
.295
86
35
Nathaniel Lowe
590
.265
.341
.408
109
.143
.325
-1
1.5
.327
105
74
Braiden Ward
382
.246
.336
.331
88
.085
.321
0
1.4
.303
90
46
Nick Sogard
492
.248
.333
.343
90
.095
.311
-4
1.4
.303
91
53
Franklin Arias
517
.247
.294
.349
79
.102
.279
4
1.3
.282
84
54
Masataka Yoshida
398
.278
.339
.414
110
.136
.302
0
1.2
.328
105
51
Marcelo Mayer
353
.238
.295
.387
89
.149
.294
1
1.1
.296
93
38
Triston Casas
359
.239
.340
.426
113
.187
.290
-2
1.0
.333
113
45
Ali Sánchez
265
.240
.293
.347
79
.107
.305
5
1.0
.282
77
25
Yasmani Grandal
269
.231
.313
.345
84
.114
.272
0
0.9
.294
81
26
Romy Gonzalez
329
.266
.307
.426
102
.160
.338
4
0.9
.314
99
43
Connor Wong
351
.248
.309
.386
93
.138
.313
-8
0.6
.304
87
40
Tristan Gray
428
.223
.281
.379
83
.156
.291
0
0.6
.286
81
42
Allan Castro
472
.230
.299
.340
79
.110
.293
-1
0.5
.284
84
46
Mikey Romero
513
.229
.273
.394
84
.165
.299
-2
0.4
.288
90
53
Elih Marrero
161
.211
.280
.299
63
.088
.293
3
0.3
.261
63
14
Trayce Thompson
352
.210
.287
.365
81
.155
.306
-4
0.2
.286
75
35
Seby Zavala
252
.184
.264
.305
59
.121
.288
1
0.1
.255
55
18
Jason Delay
248
.218
.271
.284
56
.066
.282
3
0.1
.249
56
18
A.J. Vukovich
112
.190
.277
.330
69
.140
.262
0
0.1
.272
68
9
Johanfran Garcia
233
.206
.262
.327
64
.121
.282
-1
0.0
.260
73
19
Ahbram Liendo
477
.218
.279
.271
56
.053
.317
6
0.0
.249
63
40
Matt Lloyd
379
.234
.307
.368
88
.134
.306
-1
0.0
.295
86
40
Brooks Brannon
375
.226
.269
.339
69
.113
.330
-4
-0.1
.266
76
33
Ronaldo Hernández
291
.219
.268
.342
69
.123
.259
-4
-0.1
.267
69
25
Corey Rosier
391
.221
.296
.309
70
.088
.283
3
-0.1
.272
72
37
Max Ferguson
435
.197
.286
.281
60
.084
.266
-1
-0.3
.258
64
36
Andruw Musett
379
.205
.266
.282
54
.077
.281
-1
-0.4
.247
61
26
Justin Gonzales
395
.242
.299
.354
82
.112
.289
-9
-0.4
.288
85
42
Yophery Rodriguez
481
.210
.277
.312
65
.102
.270
7
-0.5
.262
69
41
Tyler McDonough
385
.227
.284
.320
69
.093
.319
-8
-0.5
.268
68
35
Ronald Rosario
403
.208
.262
.307
59
.099
.267
-4
-0.5
.253
63
31
Phillip Sikes
372
.200
.272
.316
64
.116
.297
3
-0.5
.261
65
32
Miguel Bleis
461
.202
.260
.319
61
.117
.258
7
-0.5
.257
67
41
Freili Encarnacion
452
.222
.268
.359
74
.137
.295
-7
-0.6
.274
79
43
Drew Ehrhard
232
.225
.272
.338
70
.113
.278
0
-0.6
.268
72
21
Caden Rose
280
.173
.262
.262
48
.089
.317
4
-0.8
.241
55
19
Karson Simas
308
.212
.270
.272
53
.060
.314
-3
-0.8
.245
54
23
Juan Montero
125
.171
.256
.216
35
.045
.271
0
-0.8
.221
41
7
Marvin Alcantara
504
.223
.268
.274
53
.051
.279
-1
-0.9
.243
57
37
Nelly Taylor
493
.195
.282
.296
62
.101
.290
-5
-0.9
.260
69
43
Raudelis Martinez
305
.201
.269
.272
53
.071
.236
3
-1.0
.245
55
20
Hudson White
265
.170
.235
.232
32
.062
.241
-2
-1.1
.213
35
13
Nazzan Zanetello
370
.170
.257
.276
50
.106
.310
-3
-1.1
.243
58
25
Juan Chacon
249
.201
.258
.262
47
.061
.311
0
-1.2
.235
49
18
Antonio Anderson
421
.196
.261
.274
51
.078
.300
-3
-1.4
.242
56
28
Luis Ravelo
294
.185
.245
.244
38
.059
.268
-3
-1.4
.222
44
16
Nathan Hickey
481
.210
.297
.347
80
.137
.287
-11
-1.5
.285
83
44
Tyler Miller
366
.204
.249
.307
55
.103
.267
0
-1.6
.245
60
28
Fraymi De Leon
314
.174
.233
.223
29
.049
.265
0
-1.6
.209
35
19
Albert Feliz
270
.171
.222
.283
40
.112
.313
-3
-1.9
.224
46
16
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Roman Anthony
.297
.401
.500
149
5.5
.238
.344
.395
107
2.4
Jarren Duran
.284
.352
.490
132
5.3
.231
.302
.392
93
2.1
Ceddanne Rafaela
.290
.332
.479
123
5.1
.239
.283
.381
85
2.2
Alex Bregman
.276
.368
.466
131
4.5
.224
.313
.366
91
1.6
Wilyer Abreu
.270
.353
.497
133
3.7
.221
.302
.389
94
1.6
Trevor Story
.281
.325
.469
119
3.9
.224
.270
.370
77
0.9
Willson Contreras
.282
.379
.495
141
3.3
.228
.326
.392
101
1.1
Kristian Campbell
.274
.361
.417
118
3.1
.220
.308
.333
81
0.5
Nate Eaton
.271
.333
.435
111
2.9
.215
.278
.339
74
0.7
David Hamilton
.258
.332
.417
106
2.9
.200
.270
.316
65
0.8
Carlos Narváez
.256
.337
.410
107
2.7
.197
.279
.313
65
0.5
Vinny Capra
.269
.339
.392
103
2.3
.212
.286
.307
66
0.7
Nathaniel Lowe
.291
.366
.451
126
2.8
.237
.310
.365
89
0.1
Braiden Ward
.274
.359
.373
105
2.2
.216
.306
.292
70
0.5
Nick Sogard
.278
.358
.389
111
2.5
.220
.302
.298
70
0.2
Franklin Arias
.271
.319
.394
98
2.5
.219
.269
.310
61
0.1
Masataka Yoshida
.309
.367
.461
129
2.2
.246
.311
.364
89
0.1
Marcelo Mayer
.267
.321
.447
111
2.1
.213
.268
.344
71
0.3
Triston Casas
.265
.365
.485
133
1.9
.213
.316
.372
93
0.2
Ali Sánchez
.278
.327
.391
99
1.7
.210
.261
.302
59
0.4
Yasmani Grandal
.263
.346
.397
107
1.6
.197
.281
.294
63
0.2
Romy Gonzalez
.298
.337
.477
124
1.7
.232
.272
.368
79
-0.1
Connor Wong
.276
.340
.437
114
1.5
.220
.280
.336
74
-0.3
Tristan Gray
.246
.303
.429
101
1.5
.194
.256
.341
67
-0.3
Allan Castro
.260
.328
.388
98
1.7
.204
.273
.295
61
-0.5
Mikey Romero
.257
.301
.448
105
1.7
.205
.251
.342
66
-0.7
Elih Marrero
.245
.316
.343
85
0.8
.182
.247
.257
42
-0.1
Trayce Thompson
.241
.316
.427
105
1.2
.180
.257
.309
60
-0.7
Seby Zavala
.214
.298
.362
79
0.7
.155
.235
.254
38
-0.6
Jason Delay
.252
.311
.331
78
0.8
.187
.239
.240
35
-0.5
A.J. Vukovich
.221
.307
.388
92
0.4
.165
.247
.275
48
-0.2
Johanfran Garcia
.239
.291
.388
88
0.7
.176
.231
.271
42
-0.6
Ahbram Liendo
.248
.312
.309
74
1.2
.189
.251
.235
39
-1.1
Matt Lloyd
.261
.337
.412
107
0.9
.205
.278
.321
67
-1.0
Brooks Brannon
.257
.299
.394
92
0.9
.196
.242
.282
48
-1.2
Ronaldo Hernández
.248
.296
.395
90
0.6
.191
.239
.295
49
-0.9
Corey Rosier
.246
.325
.355
87
0.7
.195
.269
.275
52
-1.0
Max Ferguson
.225
.315
.321
79
0.7
.172
.264
.247
44
-1.2
Andruw Musett
.239
.301
.338
78
0.7
.176
.235
.249
37
-1.2
Justin Gonzales
.270
.329
.404
105
0.6
.210
.269
.310
64
-1.4
Yophery Rodriguez
.239
.305
.360
85
0.7
.181
.248
.268
46
-1.6
Tyler McDonough
.261
.313
.371
88
0.5
.202
.258
.281
52
-1.3
Ronald Rosario
.241
.294
.364
83
0.7
.177
.234
.268
40
-1.5
Phillip Sikes
.228
.300
.367
85
0.4
.173
.245
.277
46
-1.4
Miguel Bleis
.228
.286
.366
78
0.4
.178
.239
.284
46
-1.5
Freili Encarnacion
.252
.294
.416
94
0.5
.193
.239
.313
54
-1.8
Drew Ehrhard
.256
.304
.391
92
0.1
.199
.245
.290
51
-1.1
Caden Rose
.199
.290
.310
68
-0.1
.145
.236
.213
29
-1.5
Karson Simas
.238
.297
.309
70
-0.1
.182
.240
.236
34
-1.5
Juan Montero
.196
.282
.255
52
-0.5
.143
.227
.177
18
-1.1
Marvin Alcantara
.251
.299
.310
70
0.3
.198
.246
.241
39
-1.7
Nelly Taylor
.222
.311
.341
82
0.3
.170
.257
.256
46
-1.9
Raudelis Martinez
.231
.300
.307
69
-0.3
.174
.241
.234
35
-1.7
Hudson White
.206
.269
.278
53
-0.4
.141
.206
.194
14
-1.7
Nazzan Zanetello
.199
.290
.330
72
0.0
.138
.229
.228
29
-2.0
Juan Chacon
.230
.291
.306
66
-0.6
.169
.227
.223
28
-1.8
Antonio Anderson
.227
.288
.323
69
-0.4
.171
.231
.232
33
-2.3
Luis Ravelo
.218
.276
.294
58
-0.6
.156
.213
.201
17
-2.2
Nathan Hickey
.234
.322
.392
98
-0.4
.183
.267
.299
60
-2.7
Tyler Miller
.234
.280
.353
73
-0.7
.181
.225
.261
37
-2.4
Fraymi De Leon
.198
.263
.260
45
-0.9
.146
.211
.189
13
-2.2
Albert Feliz
.202
.250
.327
59
-1.2
.145
.192
.229
20
-2.6
Batters – Platoon Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Roman Anthony
.266
.362
.430
.268
.371
.448
Jarren Duran
.247
.311
.388
.264
.332
.470
Ceddanne Rafaela
.262
.304
.448
.265
.308
.422
Alex Bregman
.253
.347
.413
.250
.339
.416
Wilyer Abreu
.232
.312
.376
.251
.334
.466
Trevor Story
.266
.312
.455
.251
.296
.403
Willson Contreras
.265
.359
.469
.250
.347
.433
Kristian Campbell
.255
.346
.387
.243
.333
.367
Nate Eaton
.250
.318
.404
.244
.302
.376
David Hamilton
.221
.283
.327
.232
.305
.373
Carlos Narváez
.230
.317
.385
.222
.302
.351
Vinny Capra
.252
.325
.364
.239
.306
.343
Nathaniel Lowe
.257
.329
.388
.268
.345
.416
Braiden Ward
.235
.337
.329
.250
.336
.332
Nick Sogard
.255
.335
.358
.244
.331
.336
Franklin Arias
.252
.301
.356
.245
.291
.346
Masataka Yoshida
.263
.327
.374
.284
.344
.429
Marcelo Mayer
.231
.283
.341
.241
.299
.405
Triston Casas
.227
.324
.402
.244
.347
.437
Ali Sánchez
.238
.293
.357
.241
.292
.342
Yasmani Grandal
.230
.319
.361
.232
.312
.339
Romy Gonzalez
.278
.326
.468
.257
.293
.397
Connor Wong
.250
.315
.393
.246
.305
.382
Tristan Gray
.214
.268
.344
.228
.288
.398
Allan Castro
.226
.291
.339
.231
.301
.340
Mikey Romero
.212
.260
.364
.234
.277
.404
Elih Marrero
.220
.278
.320
.206
.280
.289
Trayce Thompson
.213
.295
.380
.208
.283
.357
Seby Zavala
.189
.282
.338
.181
.255
.289
Jason Delay
.228
.282
.278
.213
.265
.287
A.J. Vukovich
.200
.282
.343
.185
.274
.323
Johanfran Garcia
.212
.264
.333
.203
.261
.324
Ahbram Liendo
.232
.297
.296
.213
.272
.261
Matt Lloyd
.223
.288
.340
.239
.314
.379
Brooks Brannon
.223
.266
.340
.227
.271
.339
Ronaldo Hernández
.226
.277
.366
.216
.263
.330
Corey Rosier
.206
.278
.268
.226
.302
.325
Max Ferguson
.193
.279
.266
.199
.289
.287
Andruw Musett
.204
.275
.306
.205
.263
.273
Justin Gonzales
.245
.304
.377
.240
.296
.345
Yophery Rodriguez
.198
.264
.288
.213
.281
.320
Tyler McDonough
.228
.282
.327
.226
.285
.317
Ronald Rosario
.225
.279
.324
.201
.255
.301
Phillip Sikes
.218
.292
.337
.192
.263
.308
Miguel Bleis
.202
.261
.315
.202
.260
.321
Freili Encarnacion
.222
.267
.373
.222
.268
.354
Drew Ehrhard
.239
.292
.373
.219
.263
.322
Caden Rose
.173
.271
.267
.173
.258
.260
Karson Simas
.218
.277
.287
.209
.268
.265
Juan Montero
.176
.282
.235
.169
.244
.208
Marvin Alcantara
.231
.279
.285
.220
.264
.270
Nelly Taylor
.191
.274
.282
.196
.285
.301
Raudelis Martinez
.194
.263
.264
.204
.272
.276
Hudson White
.173
.241
.267
.169
.232
.217
Nazzan Zanetello
.177
.269
.281
.167
.252
.274
Juan Chacon
.203
.267
.275
.200
.254
.256
Antonio Anderson
.206
.268
.284
.192
.259
.270
Luis Ravelo
.184
.241
.250
.186
.246
.242
Nathan Hickey
.196
.275
.299
.215
.305
.363
Tyler Miller
.193
.234
.261
.207
.255
.323
Fraymi De Leon
.174
.234
.209
.174
.233
.229
Albert Feliz
.176
.225
.284
.169
.221
.282
Pitcher – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Garrett Crochet
L
27
15
6
2.78
30
30
184.3
152
57
18
49
230
Sonny Gray
R
36
11
8
3.74
27
27
154.0
147
64
19
41
160
Brayan Bello
R
27
11
10
4.02
31
30
163.3
157
73
17
58
136
Garrett Whitlock
R
30
6
3
3.17
45
5
71.0
61
25
7
18
81
Connelly Early
L
24
8
7
4.07
24
21
108.3
99
49
12
40
110
Payton Tolle
L
23
5
4
4.15
28
21
102.0
95
47
15
30
106
Aroldis Chapman
L
38
5
2
2.92
56
0
49.3
35
16
4
22
71
Tanner Houck
R
30
6
5
4.00
19
17
100.7
99
48
10
33
79
Kyle Harrison
L
24
5
4
4.34
27
23
110.0
104
53
14
44
107
Johan Oviedo
R
28
6
5
4.28
22
20
96.7
87
46
12
41
93
Patrick Sandoval
L
29
6
5
4.21
17
17
87.7
88
41
8
39
78
Tyler Uberstine
R
27
5
5
4.38
22
18
100.7
101
49
13
35
88
Lucas Giolito
R
31
7
8
4.65
27
27
137.3
137
71
21
53
123
John Holobetz
R
23
5
6
4.49
21
17
110.3
116
55
14
31
80
Kutter Crawford
R
30
6
7
4.47
21
18
104.7
100
52
16
32
90
Yordanny Monegro
R
23
4
4
4.28
21
19
75.7
73
36
10
27
69
Josh Winckowski
R
28
5
4
4.13
32
9
80.7
84
37
9
26
63
Shane Drohan
L
27
5
5
4.62
19
17
74.0
72
38
9
33
63
David Sandlin
R
25
6
6
4.62
27
13
87.7
93
45
13
30
69
Ryan Watson
R
28
4
3
4.15
36
5
60.7
61
28
7
20
50
Jovani Morán
L
29
3
1
3.74
33
3
43.3
38
18
4
19
48
Eduardo Rivera
L
23
4
5
4.77
20
14
77.3
74
41
10
40
70
Hayden Mullins
L
25
4
5
4.83
21
19
85.7
82
46
11
44
78
Blake Wehunt
R
25
4
6
4.78
18
18
69.7
71
37
10
28
57
Jordan Hicks
R
29
4
5
4.56
34
11
73.0
71
37
7
34
66
Jake Bennett
L
25
3
4
4.68
18
18
67.3
72
35
9
22
46
Jack Anderson
R
26
4
4
4.52
27
5
71.7
76
36
10
20
57
Dalton Rogers
L
25
4
6
4.86
21
16
87.0
87
47
12
50
76
Bryan Mata
R
27
3
3
4.50
32
5
62.0
58
31
7
31
60
José De León
R
33
4
4
4.83
20
11
69.0
70
37
10
31
62
Justin Wilson
L
38
2
2
3.79
49
0
38.0
38
16
4
15
41
Greg Weissert
R
31
5
4
4.10
62
0
59.3
56
27
7
21
54
Justin Slaten
R
28
4
3
4.01
37
1
42.7
39
19
5
16
40
Isaac Coffey
R
26
4
5
5.09
19
16
74.3
73
42
11
32
61
Tyler Samaniego
L
27
3
2
4.21
31
1
36.3
36
17
4
14
30
Osvaldo Berrios
R
26
4
4
4.76
31
5
58.7
63
31
8
21
43
Zack Kelly
R
31
3
3
4.47
47
2
56.3
51
28
7
28
54
Alec Gamboa
L
29
3
5
5.03
20
5
53.7
58
30
6
28
33
Liam Hendriks
R
37
2
1
4.43
25
1
22.3
21
11
3
9
24
Caleb Bolden
R
27
3
4
5.11
21
8
56.3
59
32
8
27
42
Wyatt Mills
R
31
2
3
4.95
30
5
43.7
44
24
6
20
35
John Stankiewicz
R
27
4
5
4.82
37
2
52.3
56
28
7
22
38
Jeremy Wu-Yelland
L
27
2
1
4.78
22
0
37.7
35
20
5
18
39
Reidis Sena
R
25
3
4
5.01
26
2
41.3
40
23
5
25
37
Hobie Harris
R
33
2
3
4.76
33
1
39.7
42
21
5
20
32
Austin Adams
R
35
1
1
4.91
29
1
25.7
21
14
3
18
33
Christopher Troye
R
27
2
2
4.89
25
0
35.0
33
19
4
23
33
Gabriel Jackson
R
24
3
4
5.18
22
4
57.3
64
33
8
26
32
Cooper Adams
R
26
3
3
5.05
28
2
62.3
66
35
9
25
46
Noah Song
R
29
1
3
5.32
26
4
45.7
48
27
7
24
37
Jacob Webb
R
27
3
5
5.13
32
2
52.7
54
30
7
26
41
Brendan Cellucci
L
28
2
3
5.02
27
1
43.0
43
24
6
27
38
Wyatt Olds
R
26
4
6
5.32
35
4
67.7
64
40
9
41
59
Zach Bryant
R
28
2
2
5.35
27
0
38.7
41
23
6
19
29
Jorge Juan
R
27
2
4
5.55
29
0
35.7
34
22
5
23
32
Pitcher – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
3ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Garrett Crochet
184.3
11.2
2.4
0.9
6.5%
30.6%
.300
150
144
2.80
67
5.0
Sonny Gray
154.0
9.4
2.4
1.1
6.4%
24.8%
.305
112
103
3.57
90
2.7
Brayan Bello
163.3
7.5
3.2
0.9
8.3%
19.5%
.290
104
104
4.08
96
2.3
Garrett Whitlock
71.0
10.3
2.3
0.9
6.2%
27.9%
.297
132
127
3.05
76
1.6
Connelly Early
108.3
9.1
3.3
1.0
8.7%
23.8%
.295
103
105
3.96
97
1.5
Payton Tolle
102.0
9.4
2.6
1.3
7.0%
24.8%
.293
101
106
3.97
99
1.3
Aroldis Chapman
49.3
13.0
4.0
0.7
10.6%
34.3%
.295
143
126
2.74
70
1.2
Tanner Houck
100.7
7.1
2.9
0.9
7.7%
18.4%
.292
97
97
4.11
103
1.2
Kyle Harrison
110.0
8.8
3.6
1.1
9.3%
22.7%
.295
96
101
4.26
104
1.2
Johan Oviedo
96.7
8.7
3.8
1.1
9.9%
22.4%
.283
97
99
4.34
103
1.1
Patrick Sandoval
87.7
8.0
4.0
0.8
10.1%
20.1%
.309
99
100
4.01
101
1.1
Tyler Uberstine
100.7
7.9
3.1
1.2
8.1%
20.3%
.298
95
98
4.29
105
1.1
Lucas Giolito
137.3
8.1
3.5
1.4
8.9%
20.6%
.294
90
89
4.61
111
1.1
John Holobetz
110.3
6.5
2.5
1.1
6.6%
16.9%
.297
93
98
4.26
107
1.0
Kutter Crawford
104.7
7.7
2.8
1.4
7.3%
20.4%
.280
93
93
4.46
107
0.9
Yordanny Monegro
75.7
8.2
3.2
1.2
8.3%
21.2%
.292
97
104
4.25
103
0.9
Josh Winckowski
80.7
7.0
2.9
1.0
7.5%
18.2%
.302
101
103
4.13
99
0.9
Shane Drohan
74.0
7.7
4.0
1.1
10.1%
19.3%
.290
90
93
4.50
111
0.6
David Sandlin
87.7
7.1
3.1
1.3
7.9%
18.1%
.299
90
94
4.61
111
0.6
Ryan Watson
60.7
7.4
3.0
1.0
7.6%
19.1%
.297
101
101
4.15
100
0.5
Jovani Morán
43.3
10.0
3.9
0.8
10.2%
25.7%
.301
112
111
3.53
90
0.5
Eduardo Rivera
77.3
8.2
4.7
1.2
11.7%
20.5%
.291
87
94
4.74
115
0.5
Hayden Mullins
85.7
8.2
4.6
1.2
11.5%
20.4%
.291
86
91
4.80
116
0.5
Blake Wehunt
69.7
7.4
3.6
1.3
9.2%
18.6%
.293
87
94
4.77
115
0.5
Jordan Hicks
73.0
8.1
4.2
0.9
10.4%
20.2%
.302
92
91
4.29
109
0.5
Jake Bennett
67.3
6.1
2.9
1.2
7.5%
15.8%
.294
89
93
4.60
112
0.5
Jack Anderson
71.7
7.2
2.5
1.3
6.5%
18.4%
.301
92
97
4.27
108
0.4
Dalton Rogers
87.0
7.9
5.2
1.2
12.5%
19.0%
.295
86
90
5.00
116
0.4
Bryan Mata
62.0
8.7
4.5
1.0
11.2%
21.7%
.295
93
95
4.49
108
0.3
José De León
69.0
8.1
4.0
1.3
10.1%
20.3%
.300
87
82
4.90
116
0.3
Justin Wilson
38.0
9.7
3.6
0.9
9.0%
24.6%
.324
110
96
3.64
91
0.3
Greg Weissert
59.3
8.2
3.2
1.1
8.3%
21.3%
.290
102
100
4.09
98
0.3
Justin Slaten
42.7
8.4
3.4
1.1
8.7%
21.7%
.286
104
103
4.01
96
0.3
Isaac Coffey
74.3
7.4
3.9
1.3
9.9%
18.8%
.284
82
85
5.22
122
0.2
Tyler Samaniego
36.3
7.4
3.5
1.0
8.9%
19.1%
.296
99
100
4.26
101
0.2
Osvaldo Berrios
58.7
6.6
3.2
1.2
8.1%
16.7%
.301
88
92
4.70
114
0.1
Zack Kelly
56.3
8.6
4.5
1.1
11.3%
21.9%
.284
93
91
4.57
108
0.1
Alec Gamboa
53.7
5.5
4.7
1.0
11.3%
13.3%
.295
83
83
5.06
121
0.0
Liam Hendriks
22.3
9.7
3.6
1.2
9.2%
24.5%
.300
94
82
4.10
106
0.0
Caleb Bolden
56.3
6.7
4.3
1.3
10.6%
16.5%
.293
82
84
5.28
122
0.0
Wyatt Mills
43.7
7.2
4.1
1.2
10.3%
17.9%
.290
84
82
5.06
118
0.0
John Stankiewicz
52.3
6.5
3.8
1.2
9.4%
16.2%
.299
87
89
4.77
115
-0.1
Jeremy Wu-Yelland
37.7
9.3
4.3
1.2
10.7%
23.2%
.294
87
92
4.65
115
-0.1
Reidis Sena
41.3
8.1
5.4
1.1
13.2%
19.5%
.294
83
88
4.83
120
-0.1
Hobie Harris
39.7
7.3
4.5
1.1
11.0%
17.7%
.306
88
83
4.70
114
-0.1
Austin Adams
25.7
11.6
6.3
1.1
15.4%
28.2%
.295
85
77
4.92
118
-0.1
Christopher Troye
35.0
8.5
5.9
1.0
13.9%
19.9%
.293
85
89
4.91
117
-0.2
Gabriel Jackson
57.3
5.0
4.1
1.3
10.0%
12.3%
.293
81
85
5.43
124
-0.2
Cooper Adams
62.3
6.6
3.6
1.3
9.0%
16.6%
.295
83
87
5.01
120
-0.2
Noah Song
45.7
7.3
4.7
1.4
11.5%
17.8%
.297
78
79
5.31
128
-0.2
Jacob Webb
52.7
7.0
4.4
1.2
10.9%
17.2%
.294
81
84
4.99
123
-0.2
Brendan Cellucci
43.0
8.0
5.7
1.3
13.4%
18.8%
.296
83
85
5.37
120
-0.2
Wyatt Olds
67.7
7.8
5.5
1.2
13.2%
19.0%
.284
78
81
5.59
127
-0.4
Zach Bryant
38.7
6.7
4.4
1.4
10.9%
16.6%
.294
78
81
5.39
128
-0.4
Jorge Juan
35.7
8.1
5.8
1.3
13.7%
19.0%
.287
75
78
5.71
133
-0.4
Pitcher – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitcher – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Garrett Crochet
.204
.252
.289
.222
.277
.362
6.3
3.7
2.24
3.35
Sonny Gray
.237
.293
.380
.252
.299
.416
3.8
1.4
3.04
4.62
Brayan Bello
.253
.330
.424
.241
.304
.351
3.5
1.4
3.50
4.49
Garrett Whitlock
.228
.278
.350
.224
.281
.361
2.2
0.7
2.49
4.27
Connelly Early
.206
.294
.325
.248
.324
.401
2.2
0.7
3.57
4.71
Payton Tolle
.228
.293
.378
.244
.296
.424
2.1
0.4
3.48
5.07
Aroldis Chapman
.178
.275
.200
.201
.289
.351
2.0
0.3
1.80
4.81
Tanner Houck
.258
.338
.412
.247
.304
.369
1.7
0.4
3.86
5.05
Kyle Harrison
.261
.333
.374
.237
.318
.410
2.0
0.4
3.74
4.97
Johan Oviedo
.238
.332
.392
.237
.314
.398
1.8
0.3
3.72
5.04
Patrick Sandoval
.205
.290
.318
.268
.344
.406
1.7
0.4
3.66
4.89
Tyler Uberstine
.270
.336
.429
.238
.304
.401
1.9
0.4
3.74
4.99
Lucas Giolito
.241
.317
.406
.266
.329
.460
1.8
0.0
4.19
5.37
John Holobetz
.264
.318
.426
.260
.303
.414
1.7
0.3
3.98
5.10
Kutter Crawford
.243
.318
.450
.254
.300
.408
1.6
0.2
3.95
5.07
Yordanny Monegro
.243
.310
.414
.248
.316
.395
1.6
0.3
3.59
4.99
Josh Winckowski
.268
.329
.409
.253
.309
.408
1.4
0.2
3.62
4.89
Shane Drohan
.271
.344
.412
.241
.326
.409
1.1
0.1
4.06
5.27
David Sandlin
.277
.339
.458
.254
.310
.427
1.1
0.0
4.09
5.21
Ryan Watson
.250
.328
.398
.262
.312
.408
0.9
0.0
3.58
4.84
Jovani Morán
.224
.297
.310
.229
.315
.385
1.0
0.0
2.89
4.86
Eduardo Rivera
.242
.340
.341
.248
.340
.438
1.0
-0.2
4.22
5.48
Hayden Mullins
.271
.358
.393
.233
.336
.414
1.1
-0.2
4.24
5.52
Blake Wehunt
.278
.357
.452
.240
.311
.407
1.0
0.0
4.24
5.44
Jordan Hicks
.273
.377
.422
.226
.307
.358
1.0
-0.1
4.01
5.27
Jake Bennett
.274
.327
.442
.263
.323
.434
0.9
0.0
4.19
5.24
Jack Anderson
.248
.299
.406
.276
.321
.462
1.0
-0.2
3.88
5.30
Dalton Rogers
.238
.331
.381
.261
.357
.441
1.0
-0.3
4.32
5.60
Bryan Mata
.246
.360
.377
.236
.319
.394
0.9
-0.2
3.81
5.27
José De León
.250
.346
.424
.262
.344
.426
0.8
-0.2
4.26
5.57
Justin Wilson
.255
.317
.364
.240
.313
.400
0.7
-0.3
2.97
5.34
Greg Weissert
.255
.336
.422
.236
.295
.370
0.9
-0.3
3.36
5.03
Justin Slaten
.254
.342
.448
.229
.286
.354
0.7
-0.2
3.35
4.86
Isaac Coffey
.250
.344
.441
.255
.354
.425
0.6
-0.4
4.59
5.70
Tyler Samaniego
.234
.308
.319
.260
.333
.438
0.4
-0.1
3.69
4.93
Osvaldo Berrios
.270
.344
.423
.264
.321
.440
0.5
-0.2
4.19
5.29
Zack Kelly
.245
.357
.394
.233
.316
.392
0.7
-0.4
3.69
5.35
Alec Gamboa
.265
.354
.412
.274
.359
.425
0.3
-0.4
4.53
5.76
Liam Hendriks
.244
.326
.366
.234
.302
.404
0.3
-0.3
3.36
6.08
Caleb Bolden
.269
.369
.462
.258
.343
.408
0.3
-0.5
4.64
5.81
Wyatt Mills
.263
.356
.447
.255
.349
.415
0.3
-0.5
4.38
5.95
John Stankiewicz
.267
.348
.406
.264
.322
.455
0.2
-0.4
4.27
5.43
Jeremy Wu-Yelland
.234
.333
.340
.245
.348
.439
0.2
-0.4
4.03
5.54
Reidis Sena
.233
.341
.397
.258
.356
.404
0.2
-0.4
4.38
5.78
Hobie Harris
.240
.329
.400
.282
.354
.447
0.2
-0.4
4.13
5.66
Austin Adams
.209
.358
.395
.222
.377
.315
0.1
-0.4
3.96
6.14
Christopher Troye
.270
.395
.444
.222
.329
.361
0.1
-0.5
4.32
5.74
Gabriel Jackson
.266
.352
.404
.285
.360
.480
0.2
-0.6
4.68
5.79
Cooper Adams
.239
.333
.385
.286
.347
.481
0.2
-0.6
4.50
5.65
Noah Song
.268
.375
.427
.260
.342
.460
0.2
-0.7
4.63
6.30
Jacob Webb
.274
.369
.442
.243
.323
.400
0.1
-0.6
4.59
5.83
Brendan Cellucci
.236
.382
.382
.263
.361
.447
0.1
-0.6
4.42
5.76
Wyatt Olds
.250
.397
.440
.241
.355
.379
0.1
-1.0
4.76
6.06
Zach Bryant
.279
.380
.441
.253
.333
.460
-0.1
-0.7
4.71
6.19
Jorge Juan
.238
.377
.429
.253
.380
.413
-0.1
-0.8
4.85
6.50
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.