The rapidly growing popularity of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, WeGovy, and Mounjaro is profoundly changing the way people eat and creating a new demographic of shoppers for CPG companies to chase.
That could mean a reversal of the bigger-is-better mindset that has dominated consumer packaged goods products for decades. The era of king-sized packaging is unlikely to come to a close, but grocers can expect to see a greater focus on companies offering high-protein foods in smaller sizes.
That’s according to Rick Miller, a partner at data analytics firm Big Chalk Analytics, who said the popularity of GLP-1s is already reflected in new products, and the trend is just getting started.
“While they don’t always act quickly, the food manufacturers—and by proxy, their retail partners—will figure out there’s profit to be made in smaller pack sizes of food,” he said in an interview with Supermarket News.
GLP-1 impact on grocery volumes
A Big Chalk Analytics survey of 4,511 U.S. shoppers in spring of 2025 showed that 11.2% of adults are using GLP-1 drugs, and 8.3% are considering it within the next 12 months.
The impact of these drugs is estimated to reduce caloric intake by 16% to 39%, which could mean a 1.2% to 2.9% reduction in overall food sales, according to the report. Snacks and sweets are likely to take the biggest hit.
Those projections of reduced spending were reflected in a survey released in December by data analytics firm Numerator that showed those taking GLP-1s with the goal of losing more than 15 pounds cut their grocery spending by 7.7%, and those aiming to lose 15 pounds or less cut spending by 11%.
The Big Chalk report noted that interviews with GLP-1 users suggest that discretionary categories like snacks and candy are on the chopping block for GLP-1 users, but the data is “not yet conclusive.”
“Anecdotally, the people that we talked to who’ve been on a GLP-1 program for at least a year have said, “Well, listen, my desire to eat and my desire to drink has gone down, but my desire to eat junk food, bad food has gone down more so than my desire to eat in general,’” Miller said.
The rapidly growing demographic of shoppers is already making its way onto store shelves from companies like Nestlé and Conagra. Both have released GLP-1-friendly products over the past year.
Conagra, which owns a wide range of popular brands including Slim Jim, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender’s, Reddi-wip, Hunt’s, Orville Redenbacher’s, Duncan Hines, and Chef Boyardee, among others, announced in December the rollout of an “On Track” badge for 26 products in its Healthy Choice line it deems “GLP-1 friendly.”
The badges indicate that the products are high in protein, a good source of fiber, and low calorie. “Our ‘On Track’ badge reflects our commitment to providing accessible, healthy meal options tailored to their needs,” according to Conagra.
Nestlé went a step further in May with the release of its Vital Pursuit line of frozen dinners, which are marketed as a “companion” to GLP-1 drugs.
“As the use of medications to support weight loss continues to rise, we see an opportunity to serve those consumers,” Nestlé North America CEO Steve Presley said in May.
Reduced cravings could cut package sizes
A Big Chalk review of product categories purchased by GLP-1 users, as well as those considering using the medication, shows that toaster pastries could be particularly vulnerable.
Of the eight categories reviewed, toaster pastries had the highest percentage of shoppers who purchase the product currently but are considering using GLP-1s at 11.4%. That’s followed by protein bars at 11%, snack/granola bars at 10.5%, coffee at 10.2%, lunch meat/cold cuts at 9.8%, loose granola at 8.6%, cold cereal at 8%, and carbonated soft drinks at 7.8%.
“While we would expect current volume sales in these categories to already reflect declines from current GLP-1 users, the consumers who are considering—but not yet using—a GLP-1 represent further risk,” the report noted.
The report added that GLP-1 users are trading down on package sizes in all eight categories. Coffee was the biggest category with 39.6% of GLP-1 users buying smaller packs, and soft drinks was the smallest at 29.1%. Big Chalk noted that not all downsizing is due to GLP-1 usage, adding that “there are likely financial implications in play, but the behavior is stark enough it warrants presentation.”
Miller said he believes this will motivate food manufacturers to reduce package sizes, bucking a trend that’s been in place since big box retailers like Walmart and Target began selling groceries.
“You know, a lot of times the pressure on manufacturers was to provide more volume for the same price,” he said. “And I think you’re going to see a shift back to smaller pack sizes, because consumers are going to demand it.”
That doesn’t necessarily mean the elimination of larger packs, but instead a diversification of product offerings that place a greater emphasis on smaller sizes, he said.
“What that just means is you have to have some breadth in your assortment as a retailer or as a manufacturer, so you’re not going to discontinue the 30-packs of Coke … but you’ll put a little bit more emphasis on the smaller pack sizes, because you’re going to have a larger demand … It’s an assortment reallocation. It happens all the time, usually for different reasons, but in this case, it’ll be GLP-1 driving it,” he said.