Slowing auto sales stoke concern over near-record car prices

High prices threaten to send U.S. auto sales into decline this year as middle-class consumers shy away from new-vehicle purchases with stickers near record levels.

Major carmakers including General Motors Co., Honda Motor Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. said sales fell during the final three months of the year. Although industry-wide volume likely surpassed 16 million vehicles for 2025, the annualized rate slowed in the fourth quarter to an estimated 15.6 million, down more than 5% from the third quarter, according to industry researcher Cox Automotive.

Automakers are contending with consumer angst about the cost of living that persisted throughout the last year, as well as curtailed government support for electric vehicles and new tariffs that are pushing up costs. Randy Parker, Chief Executive Officer of Hyundai’s North America business, said those issues will continue to weigh on the industry this year.

The year ahead “is going to be very challenging, Parker said, adding that he still expects Hyundai to grow in 2026. “Affordability is going to be the key.”

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New-car sales among households with annual incomes of $75,000 or less have plunged 30% since 2019, while sales fell 7% among families with incomes between $75,000 and $150,000, according to Cox. Deliveries, meanwhile, soared 45% among households with annual incomes of $150,000 or more in the same period.

More than one in five new-car buyers signed up for loans with payments of more than $1,000 a month in the fourth quarter, an all-time high, according to researcher Edmunds.com.

Cox expects affordability to weigh on the market this year, forecasting US auto sales of 15.8 million vehicles. That would mark the US auto industry’s first annual drop since 2022.

“The people who can still afford new vehicles are buying what they want: larger premium vehicles,” said Cox executive analyst Erin Keating. “Everyone else, they didn’t downgrade to a compact car, they left the new market entirely, buying either used or hanging onto what they’ve got.”

Sales slowdown

Well-heeled buyers helped GM report a 5.5% increase in sales last year. Volume at its pricey GMC truck brand set a record and Cadillac reported its best year in a decade with its large Escalade SUV showing big gains.

GM makes many of its larger SUVs, including the Escalade, at its Grand Prairie manufacturing plant.

GM’s sales in the fourth quarter fell 6.9%, as EVs and some of its cheapest models, such as the Chevrolet Trax and Buick Encore GX, saw declines.

Honda said fourth-quarter sales fell 9.5%, with its namesake brand declining 10%. Key models including the Civic compact car and CR-V SUV were down in December.

Hyundai saw a 1% decline in the most recent quarter, a late slowdown in what was a record year for the South Korean automaker. Toyota Motor Corp. posted an 8.1% gain in the final three months of the year and a 10% jump in December, led by its RAV4 compact SUV and Camry sedan.

Stellantis NV said deliveries rose 4% in the fourth quarter, lifted by Ram pickups and Chrysler minivans. The Jeep brand also saw a 4% gain in the quarter, helping it break a six-year losing streak to increase sales 1% for the year. The automaker’s full-year sales fell 3% from 2024.

Tariff pressure

The Trump administration whipsawed carmakers and shoppers alike last year with new tariffs and moves to gut environmental regulations that had pushed carmakers to sell more electric vehicles.

Fears that duties would drive prices even higher fueled a sales surge early last year before the levies took effect. Yet the import taxes haven’t yet pushed up stickers, in part because automakers are largely absorbing the higher costs and due to moves by the government that have provided carmakers with some relief.

Toyota expects demand to remain strong this year, especially for its gas-electric hybrids which are expected to make up more than half of its volume, said David Christ, head of the Toyota brand in the US.

But the company is facing pressure from production capacity limits at its factories and the cost of the Trump administration’s tariffs, which may force it and other automakers to increase prices.

“We feel that prices are going to go up for us and our competitors,” Christ told reporters in a briefing on Monday. “The number one topic that is on every dealers’ tip of their tongue is affordability, and not just Toyota dealers.”

Tariff-driven price hikes would only add to the industry’s affordability challenge. S&P Global Mobility forecasts sales will decline to about 15.9 million vehicles this year, citing cautious consumers and the potential that carmakers will adjust pricing as the main culprits.

Some analysts are more bullish about 2026. AutoForecast Solutions estimates sales will rise to 16.3 million vehicles, up about 100,000 units from last year. Prices will also stay at today’s lofty levels, said Sam Fiorani, AutoForecast’s vice president of global vehicle forecasting.

“As long as the factories are running at healthy levels, we won’t see prices dropping,” he said in an interview.

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