DETROIT — In a move that threatens to upend MLB arbitration norms, Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers could be headed to an arbitration hearing after the two sides failed to reach an agreement before Thursday’s deadline.
The reigning back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner is in his final year before free agency.
Skubal, who was projected to earn $17.8 million in arbitration, per MLBTradeRumors, made $10 million last season and could break Jacob deGrom’s record for largest arbitration raise for a pitcher ($9.6 million) and David Price’s record for highest overall arbitration salary for a pitcher ($19.75 million).
After failing to reach an agreement with the Tigers, Skubal filed a salary figure at $32 million, per a league source. The Tigers filed at $19 million.
That $32 million would eclipse Juan Soto’s overall arbitration record of $31 million. Skubal’s case represents a unique circumstance, given his status in the sport.
As ESPN reported Thursday, players such as Skubal who have more than five years of service time can buck arbitration norms by using salary comparisons to not only previous arbitration-eligible players, but to any players in baseball. This could allow Skubal’s camp to invoke comparisons to the likes of Zack Wheeler ($42 million) or Gerrit Cole ($36 million) rather than just deals previous players reached in their first six years of MLB service.
In addition to being the top left-hander in the sport, Skubal is also a member of the MLBPA’s executive subcommittee.
The Tigers have operated as a “file-and-trial” club under president of baseball operations Scott Harris, meaning they do not negotiate one-year contracts after the filing deadline and instead choose an arbitration hearing. In those hearings, both sides make presentations and an independent panel ultimately chooses either the team or player salary figure — but not a number in between.
If the case heads to a hearing, arbiters will decide on either the $32 million or $19 million figure. The only way the two sides could settle on an amount in between would be to continue negotiating and strike an agreement before a February hearing.
Two years ago, the Tigers did not come to an initial agreement with right-hander Casey Mize after the two sides haggled over $25,000. In a loophole related to the file-and-trial mindset, Mize and the Tigers ultimately reached a one-year deal with a $3.1 million club option — technically a multi-year deal. The Tigers declined the option after the season, and Mize remained under team control via the arbitration system.
The chances of negotiating any multi-year extension with Skubal are slim, given his status as a Scott Boras client who could earn a record deal in free agency. Given the wide gulf between the two sides, there could be incentive for negotiations to continue.
Detroit has gone to only one arbitration hearing since 2001, winning a case with Michael Fulmer in 2019. On Thursday, the club reached agreements with seven other arbitration-eligible players.
This winter, Skubal has already been the subject of debate and trade whispers. The odds of him breaking camp in Lakeland with the Tigers next month remain high. But there is now at least one more twist for the two sides to navigate.