AI Is Killing Select White Collar Jobs. What’s Hot and What’s Not?

Private education and health accounted for over 100 percent of job gains in 2025.

Change in Select White Collar Jobs

Professional and Business Services: Negative 9 of 12 months in 2025

Information: Negative 7 of 12 months in 2025

Financial: Positive 10 of 12 months in 2025

Select White Collar Jobs Sum of Monthly Changes

For the year, professional and business services lost 97,000 jobs. Information lost 30,000 jobs. Financial gained 38,000 jobs.

AI is impacting these job categories.

Change in Manufacturing and Construction Jobs

Manufacturing: Negative or Zero 10 of 12 Months

Construction: Negative or Zero 7 of 12 Months

Construction did have two good months. This was likely data center construction. Residential and office has been dismal all year.

Change in Manufacturing and Construction Jobs 2025

Manufacturing: -68,000

Construction: +14,000

Construction may have been negative without data center and utilities.

Change in Education and Health, Leisure and Hospitality

2025 Jobs Synopsis

Nonfarm payrolls gained 584,000 jobs in 2025.

Leisure and Hospitality provided 188,000 of them.

Private education and Health provided 709,000 of them

Together, PE&H + L&H provided 897,000 jobs of the 584,000 total jobs. Government subtracted 149,000 (a good thing).

ADP Employment by Firm Size

Synopsis

Small businesses are suffering

White collar jobs other than Education and Health are suffering

Manufacturing is suffering

Retail is suffering (Up a mere 2,000 in 2025)

Residential construction is suffering

The only signs of strength are in Education and Health, and Leisure and Hospitality, marginally (188,000 is weak except in recessions)

Negative revisions are coming

What Do We Call This?

Trump says it’s the greatest economy ever, silly.

You should known that by now.

Expect Negative Revisions

The discrepancy between jobs reports and quarterly data widens again.

It’s based on highly accurate QCEW data that I expect negative benchmark revisions next month.

2025 closed out with a thud. Here are the details.

Assuming there are no more negative revisions (and what is the likelihood of that), the year-over-year employment gain was just 610,000.

I expect the next benchmark revision to wipe that out. Thud!

AI Is Killing Select White Collar Jobs. What’s Hot and What’s Not? – MishTalk