The ATP Brisbane International is certain to have a new champion, as well as an American in the final, as we reach the penultimate stage of the event with Russian Daniil Medvedev, a former runner-up here in 2019, attempting to win his first title since Almaty last year. He has to surmount a tricky American challenge in the semifinal, though. We examine his chances as well as the other all-American semifinal. Who will play the championship match?
ATP Brisbane Semifinal Predictions
Brandon Nakashima vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
Aleksandar Kovacevic has come out of the blocks in Brisbane, playing some of the best tennis of his career. After he dispatched the rusty Nick Kyrgios in the opener, he showed remarkable resolve to earn two solid wins over Cameron Norrie and then the big-serving Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in three sets to move into the semi-finals.
Next, he will face fellow American Brandon Nakashima, who has played perfect tennis in Brisbane. The 24-year-old advanced by defeating Raphael Collignon in straight sets without having his serve broken.
Both competitors must feel optimistic after their strong starts to 2026. Nakashima has shown remarkable consistency, having yet to lose a set in the tournament. Although he couldn’t reach a final last year, this presents a prime opportunity for him to do so at the very beginning of 2026.
Nakashima’s serve has been broken only once throughout the tournament. That in itself should power him into the final against his older compatriot.
Prediction: Nakashima in 2
Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen
Head–to–Head: Medvedev 2 – 0 Michelsen
Daniil Medvedev has rediscovered strong form recently and moved through the draw with resilient hard-court performances, including a gritty win over Kamil Majchrzak to reach this stage. His patience from the baseline, defence skills and ability to absorb pressure make him particularly effective on hard surfaces like Brisbane’s. Medvedev also holds the head-to-head edge over Alex Michelsen from previous meetings.
The American has also impressed this week with powerful serving and solid shot-making, booking his spot in the semifinals. While the American’s recent results show confidence and his game has matured, he still trails Medvedev in experience and in their head-to-head history. Michelsen’s aggressive style can trouble opponents, but against a crafty counter-puncher like Medvedev on a relatively quick hard court, it will be a test to maintain consistency under pressure. Medvedev should win this, but it won’t be easy.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports