The Australian Open countdown is officially on, and to prepare you for the first major of the year, we’re breaking down the stakes for each of the top players.
We begin with Jannik Sinner, the defending champion who has claimed back-to-back titles at Melbourne Park. Settle in as we examine what the Italian has to play for in Australia.
Sinner’s Countdown to the Australian Open
Historical Performance
To understand Sinner’s Australian dominance over the past two years, recall what Novak Djokovic accomplished before him. When Djokovic’s Melbourne reign ended, Sinner seamlessly inherited the throne.
Sinner’s performances have been nothing short of devastating.
The combination of precise, powerful serves, including a vastly improved second serve, has transformed him into a wrecking ball that overwhelms opponents on these hard courts. What makes his Australian Open campaigns particularly formidable is his ability to outlast anyone in extended rallies.
Sinner’s unforced error count has dropped dramatically compared to earlier in his career, rendering him nearly unplayable on these surfaces. The tournament’s early-season timing also works in his favor, arriving before the nagging minor injuries that sometimes plagued him later in the year. Though it must be said, his recent physical transformation has been remarkable in addressing those concerns as well.
The signs were always there. His quarterfinal run in 2022 hinted at enormous potential, and once he refined his serve and evolved into the rally supercomputer we see today, it was only a matter of time.
That time came in 2024, and he defended the title in 2025.
The Stakes
For Sinner, the stakes aren’t really about rankings or points.
Yes, failing to defend would cost him in the standings, but at this stage of his career, that’s not what drives him. It’s all about the trophies, and when that trophy belongs to a Grand Slam, the motivation intensifies. These are career-defining, legacy-shaping moments, and having won the previous two editions only amplifies the pressure.
After finishing behind Alcaraz in the year-end rankings, Sinner will have something to prove in Melbourne, particularly on a surface that has historically favored him over the Spaniard. If he wants to reassert himself as the true world No. 1, he’ll need to deliver a statement performance. That said, winning the event would not put him ahead of Alcaraz, given how rankings work.
Our Prediction
Even after a slight dip to close out last season, Sinner remains head and shoulders above everyone not named Alcaraz, and even that advantage might tilt in the Italian’s favor given how poorly Melbourne has treated the Spaniard historically.
Sinner should cruise into another deep run at Melbourne Park. Whether that means making history with a third consecutive title remains to be seen, but we’re confident he’ll reach at least the semifinals, and more than likely the final.
As we all know, in the end, anything can happen.
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – Imagn Images