The NBA’s end-of-season award races are always hotly debated, but this year’s ballots could be complicated by a tangle of unintended consequences.

In 2023, the league began mandating that award winners play at least 65 games to be eligible. The new policy was designed to cut down on “load management,” or the strategic resting of star players.

Unfortunately, the NBA is battling an injury epidemic this season that could have dire consequences on this year’s award races. As the 2025-26 season approaches its midpoint, seven of the 15 all-NBA selections from 2024-25 are at risk of failing to reach 65 games.

Instead of encouraging healthy stars to play more often, the 65-game rule could wind up penalizing several of the worthiest candidates for suffering legitimate injuries. While the NBA contemplates whether it wants to remove or reduce the 65-game threshold in the future, voters could be stuck waiting until the final week or two of the season to find out which candidates are actually eligible.

Before that mess really sinks in, here’s a look at the most deserving winners at the season’s midpoint. The following selections reflect games played through Wednesday and aren’t intended as projections of year-end winners. (All stats, records and rankings are through Wednesday’s games.)

1. MVP: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

Well, well, well: Denver center Jokic and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are back atop the MVP leaderboard for the third straight season. After Jokic held off an ascendant Gilgeous-Alexander in 2024 and Gilgeous-Alexander claimed his first MVP in 2025 by leading the Thunder to 68 wins, this year’s race could hinge on Jokic’s health. The seven-time all-star has been sidelined since hyperextending his knee Dec. 29, and he won’t be able to reach 65 games played unless he is back on the court by month’s end.

That’s obviously a bummer. Jokic (29.6 points per game, 12.2 rebounds per game, 11.0 assists per game) has placed first or second in MVP voting for five straight years because he is a master at checking all the boxes: He compiles stunning statistics, captains title contenders, leads elite offenses and enjoys excellent health. Everything was on track until his injury: Jokic was averaging a triple-double, guiding the league’s top offense and leading the NBA in both rebounds and assists. Meanwhile, Denver was living up to preseason expectations as one of the biggest threats to the defending champion Thunder.

There’s good news: the other Nuggets have done an amazing job holding down the fort, scrapping together a 6-3 record in his absence. If Jokic can get healthy in the next few weeks, he could salvage his chance to become just the sixth player in NBA history to win four MVPs.

If not, Gilgeous-Alexander (31.9 ppg, 6.4 apg, 4.5 rpg) is perfectly positioned to capitalize. The Thunder boasts the NBA’s best record and top-ranked defense, and the defending champions are on pace to match their 68 wins from last season. Thanks to his patented blend of efficiency and consistency, Gilgeous-Alexander ranks second in scoring, third in player efficiency rating and first in win shares.

Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown and Luka Doncic make up a deep chase pack, but they will have their work cut out for them catching up to Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander down the stretch.

2. Defensive Player of the year: Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

For the second straight season, Wembanyama’s spotty health looms over what should have been an open-and-shut decision. Last year, Wembanyama was ineligible to win his first defensive player of the year award because of a blood clot that ended his season in February. This year, Wembanyama has already missed 14 games with multiple injuries and will need a minor miracle to reach the 65-game threshold.

Even so, the 22-year-old remains the NBA’s best and most feared defensive presence by a wide margin. The Spurs have vaulted from 25th in defensive efficiency last season to third this season, and they’ve been even more dominant when their towering French center is on the court. Consider: San Antonio’s defensive rating with Wembanyama on the court is 103.3, a stingier mark than Oklahoma City’s league-best 105.4 defensive rating.

While Wembanyama (24.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 2.7 blocks per game) continues to rank among the league’s most prolific shot blockers and rebounders, opponents have learned they’re better off trying to avoid him rather than challenging him. After San Antonio stunned Oklahoma City with three straight head-to-head wins in December, Thunder forward Jalen Williams singled out Wembanyama as the difference-maker: “There’s this guy on their team that’s 7-foot-5 and takes up a lot of space on the court.”

Assuming Wembanyama eventually becomes ineligible, Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert, Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren and Miami’s Bam Adebayo should all merit strong consideration.

3. Rookie of the year: Cooper Flagg, Mavericks

This is the best race of the bunch: Flagg (18.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 4.2 apg) and Kon Knueppel (19.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.6 apg) are running neck-and-neck one year after they were Duke teammates. While both were blue-chippers entering the NBA as top-five draft picks, Flagg and Knueppel have experienced a bit of role reversal. Flagg was supposed to benefit from a veteran Dallas roster that would provide him structure, while Knueppel was joining a Charlotte Hornets team that has been plagued by injuries and dysfunction for the past half-decade.

Instead, the Mavericks (15-26) and Hornets (14-26) have nearly identical records and Flagg has endured more turbulence. Dallas fired general manager Nico Harrison in November following his controversial trade of Doncic and a slow start to the season, and oft-injured big man Anthony Davis hasn’t been able to stay on the court. As a result, Flagg opened the season playing out of position as a point forward and the Mavericks’ offense lagged without injured lead guard Kyrie Irving.

Knueppel, meanwhile, has made an immediate impact for a surprisingly potent Charlotte offense that has improved from 29th last season to 10th this season. The 6-foot-6 wing is off to a scorching start for a rookie, connecting on 42.5 percent from deep while launching more than eight three-pointers per game. Only six players in NBA history have matched Knueppel’s three-point volume and efficiency for an entire season: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Buddy Hield, CJ McCollum, Duncan Robinson and Davis Bertans. Knueppel is 20 years old; all of the others were 25 or older.

Though Flagg can’t match Knueppel’s efficiency, he has shifted into a more effective offensive role as the season has unfolded and wowed observers with his motor and defensive impact. Just as Knueppel has settled in offensively next to LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, Flagg has more than held his own for a Dallas defense that ranks 10th despite Davis’s absences. On this ballot, Flagg narrowly gets the nod because of his size, athleticism and two-way impact, plus the burst scoring potential he flashed while pouring in a career-high 42 points against the Utah Jazz last month.

VJ Edgecombe, the electric Philadelphia 76ers guard, is running a respectable – albeit distant – third.

4. Most improved played: Deni Avdija, Trail Blazers

The 25-year-old Avdija’s mid-career breakthrough recalls Jimmy Butler’s most improved player campaign in 2014-15. Like the former Bulls wing, Avdija (26.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 6.9 apg) began his career on the bench and was tasked with doing the dirty work before he gradually earned more scoring opportunities through force of will and a relentless attacking approach.

A 2024 trade sent the Israeli forward from the Washington Wizards to Portland, enabling him to emerge as a No. 1 option on a roster in transition. Avdija’s nonstop drives to the hoop have made him a regular presence at the free throw line, so much so that opponents are publicly complaining about how often the referees reward him with calls. Despite his increased playmaking responsibilities, Avdija has continued to live up to his “Turbo” nickname with stellar defensive energy. While Portland’s losing record could make it more difficult for Avdija to land his first all-star selection, he has outperformed some rival stars who are earning more than twice his $14.4 million salary. Now that’s value.

Though voters have favored rising young stars in recent years, Avdija is one of several worthy candidates who took the long road to the most improved player conversation. Versatile forward Jalen Johnson has taken the reins from Trae Young as the face of the Atlanta Hawks at age 24 in his fifth season, and 26-year-old guard Collin Gillespie has been a productive starter for the Phoenix Suns after going undrafted in 2022 and spending several years in the G League. Jalen Duren, the Detroit Pistons’ 22-year-old center, tops the list of youngsters.

5. Sixth man of the year: Ajay Mitchell, Thunder

Gilgeous-Alexander garners most of the headlines for the Thunder, but he is the first to acknowledge that Oklahoma City isn’t a one-man show. The Thunder’s team defense drove its 2025 championship run, and its depth has been envied by opposing teams for years.

The 23-year-old Mitchell (14.1 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.5 rpg) is a former second-round pick who has made a major leap in his second season, emerging as another starting-caliber player on Coach Mark Daigneault’s bench. The lefty guard has a smooth handle, an attack mindset and good decision-making instincts, and he has captained an Oklahoma City bench unit that ranks first in point differential.

Mitchell’s ability to scale his offense has been especially important because Oklahoma City has juggled early-season injuries to starters Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein. After falling out of the playoff rotation for much of the Thunder’s title run, Mitchell has returned as one of the NBA’s best values on a $3 million contract.

There’s stiff competition to consider: Longtime San Antonio Spurs forward Keldon Johnson has excelled off the bench in a do-everything role, and Minnesota Timberwolves center Naz Reid, the 2024 sixth man of the year, is back in the mix thanks to his dependable production.

6. Coach of the year: Joe Mazzulla, Celtics

Mazzulla didn’t win coach of the year in 2023-24 even though he led Boston to a league-best 64 wins and its first championship since 2008. That year, his candidacy was held back by his relative inexperience and the assumption that he was merely a beneficiary of the NBA’s deepest and most talented roster.

The comically intense Mazzulla finds himself on the other side of the narrative spectrum in his fourth season as Celtics coach. Boston shredded its veteran roster in response to Jayson Tatum’s Achilles tear, leaving Mazzulla to patch together a cheaper rotation around a few key holdovers. The results have been better than anyone could have imagined: Without Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet, Boston ranks second in offensive efficiency and third in net rating while sitting in third place in the Eastern Conference.

If Boston’s players received most of the credit in 2023-24, Mazzulla deserves his fair share this time around. Mazzulla’s perimeter-oriented approach on offense has made full use of Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard, and he has crafted a decent defense despite losing most of his frontcourt pieces. Rather than tumbling back into the play-in tournament or even the draft lottery, Mazzulla has positioned the Celtics for a playoff run if Tatum can return to the court before season’s end.

Elsewhere, J.B. Bickerstaff has led the rising Pistons to the top of the Eastern Conference, Mitch Johnson has thrived in his first full season as Gregg Popovich’s replacement for the Spurs, and rookie head coach Jordan Ott has hit the ground running with the upstart Suns.