The first round of the Australian Open wraps up on Day 3 as some of the top players in the world make their 2026 Melbourne debuts. No. 5 seed Lorenzo Musetti squares off against Belgian Raphael Collignon. Elsewhere around the grounds, Day 3 welcomes Jannik Sinner vs Hugo Gaston, Ben Shelton vs Ugo Humbert, Taylor Fritz vs Valentin Royer, and Karen Khachanov vs Alex Michelsen. Offering their insights and predictions are Zain Mustafa, Ilemona Onekutu, and Tope Oke. But who will advance?
Australian Open Men’s Day 3 Predictions
Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergs
Zain
After being out injured for big stretches of 2025, Hubert Hurkacz returned at the United Cup and looked the same player, with no sign of rust or any decline. Zizou Bergs is a creative baseliner who can make matches trickier than one would like, but Hurkacz’s serve and backhand consistency are more than enough firepower to see him progress to the next round here.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 4
Ilemona
Bergs’ athleticism keeps him competitive early, but breaking down Hurkacz’s serve over a long match is a tall order. The accumulation of free points should carry Hurkacz through.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 4
Tope
This promises to be a blockbuster for the Melbourne fans. Both players impressed in the United Cup and will look to retain that form in Melbourne. Expect this to be the distance with the powerful Dutchman wearing down the Pole, who just returned from a lengthy injury.
Prediction: Bergs in 5
Joao Fonseca vs Eliot Spizzirri
Zain
While much of the talk about this match has been centred around the prodigious Joao Fonseca, Eliot Spizzirri is a player who has actually had success against the Brazilian before. That, combined with the Americans’ better return and Fonseca’s huge injury concern regarding his back, makes me go for the upset in this one.
Prediction: Spizzirri in 5
Ilemona
Fonseca’s fearless baseline game translates well under pressure, especially when rallies heat up. His ability to step in and finish points should prove the difference as the match wears on.
Prediction: Fonseca in 5
Tope
Based on their skills gap, Joao Fonseca should be winning this comfortably, but there are questions about the Brazilian’s fitness, having withdrawn from the Brisbane and Adelaide events due to a lower back injury. If he isn’t fully fit, an upset may be on the cards against a red-hot Spizzirri, who has already won four out of six matches this season and defeated him in their only encounter last season.
Prediction: Spizzirri in 5
Jan-Lennard Struff vs Vit Kopriva
Zain
Vit Kopriva is a player who likes the slow red clay much more than the slick blue hard courts, relying on grinding out points due to an underpowered serve. Jan-Lennard Struff, on the other hand, has one of the best serve and forehand combinations in the game, and should have more than enough firepower to reach yet another Major second round.
Prediction: Struff in 4
Ilemona
Kopriva’s steadiness may test patience, but Struff’s aggressive serving and net forays shorten points on his terms. That proactive approach should pay off in decisive moments.
Prediction: Struff in 5
Tope
The German is the more experienced and superior player, but there is a knack for unpredictability that has followed him through his career, which the tested Vit Kopriva can latch on. The Czech player has a chance the longer the match goes.
Prediction: Kopriva in 5
Lorenzo Musetti vs Raphael Collignon
Zain
Raphael Collignon had a great run at a hard-court Major last time around at the US Open, where he played some aggressive and high ball-quality tennis. For Lorenzo Musetti, this is a surface he has historically struggled on, but he has improved greatly over the past six months or so, and if he keeps his varied baseline game going, a second-round appearance looks likely.
Prediction: Musetti in 4
Ilemona
Collignon can disrupt with pace, but Musetti’s ability to vary height, spin, and rhythm should gradually open the court. Once he finds his range, the matchup favors his all-court instincts.
Prediction: Musetti in 3
Tope
His ascent to world #5 is a testament to the elite player Lorenzo Musetti has become. If he is healthy and moving gears, this should be a victory for the Italian. Otherwise, it could be a drawn-out battle against Raphael Collignon, who has proven he is capable of challenging at the top level.
Prediction: Musetti in 4
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports