A NOTE FROM SCOTT Set your alarms! On Thursday morning, at the ungodly hour of 5:30 a.m. PT, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will reveal its nominations for the 98th Oscars. As always, I will be at the Academy’s Beverly Hills headquarters for the announcement, excited to finally learn the answers to the questions that have been keeping me up for months, and will then hustle home to write up an analysis of what happened.
With the membership of the Academy now larger (some 11,000 members) and more spread out (25 percent outside of the U.S.) than ever, accurately projecting the noms is, I dare say, harder than ever. But below, you will find my best guesses of how things will shake out in each of the 24 categories — up one from last year, thanks to the introduction of the best casting Oscar — drawing upon screenings of all of the top contenders, conversations with a wide cross-section of voters and in-depth historical and statistical analysis.
In short, I expect the most noms to go to Sinners (15, which would break the record of 14 currently shared by 1950’s All About Eve, 1997’s Titanic and 2016’s La La Land), followed by One Battle After Another (12, including a record-tying five acting noms) and, in a tie for third, Frankenstein and Hamnet (11 each). Only once before have four films broken into double digits, six years ago.
In terms of companies, Warner Bros. — currently in a tug-of-war between Netflix and Paramount — will easily lead the field. Between Sinners, One Battle, F1, Weapons and Superman, I anticipate 32 noms, which would be the most for a single company since Netflix landed 35 five years ago. Trailing behind will be Netflix (19 between Frankenstein, Train Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, The Perfect Neighbor and a couple of shorts), Neon (17 between Sentimental Value, Sirat, The Secret Agent and It Was Just an Accident) and Focus (15 between Hamnet and Bugonia).
Across all categories, I expect a strong — and possibly unprecedented — showing for non-English-language films (those international voters are not deterred by subtitles, and far fewer English-speakers are than used to be), and a bruising day for people not associated with best picture nominees (there has been an influx of younger voters, many of whom are too busy to see a large number of films, resulting in heavy coattails for the films that they do see and like).
Of course, there also will be, as always, surprise inclusions and omissions, which make the whole thing all the more fun and heartbreaking. We’ll be covering every aspect of the day and the season at THR.com, so be sure to bookmark that URL, as well as this one to specifically access my latest coverage, and this one to catch my Awards Chatter podcast, which features career-encompassing interviews with many of the top contenders.
Good luck and godspeed to us all!
Best Picture
Image Credit: Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
3. Hamnet (Focus)
4. Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Frankenstein (Netflix)
6. Sentimental Value (Neon)
7. Train Dreams (Netflix)
8. Bugonia (Focus)
9. The Secret Agent (Neon)
10. Sirat (Neon)
Alternate
F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Potential Surprise
Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)
Best Director
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix
Projected Nominees
1. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Ryan Coogler for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
3. Chloé Zhao for Hamnet (Focus)
4. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2
Alternate
Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)
Potential Surprise
Oliver Laxe for Sirat (Neon)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent (Neon)
Best Actor
Image Credit: © A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees
1. Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme (A24) — podcast
2. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
3. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
4. Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent (Neon) — podcast
5. Jesse Plemons for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast
Alternate
Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — podcast
Potential Surprise
Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Bill Skarsgard for Dead Man’s Wire (Row K)
Best Actress
Image Credit: Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees
1. Jessie Buckley for Hamnet (Focus)
2. Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
3. Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value (Neon)
4. Emma Stone for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast
5. Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) — podcast
Alternate
Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue (Focus) — podcast
Potential Surprise
Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — podcast 1 and 2
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Tessa Thompson for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
Best Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees
1. Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value (Neon) — podcast
2. Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast
3. Paul Mescal for Hamnet (Focus)
4. Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast
5. Sean Penn for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Alternate
Miles Caton for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Potential Surprise
Jacobi Jupe for Hamnet (Focus)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Kevin O’Leary for Marty Supreme (A24)
Best Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Quantrell Colbert/Warner Bros.
Projected Nominees
1. Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Amy Madigan for Weapons (Warner Bros.) — podcast
3. Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good (Universal) — podcast 1 and 2
Alternate
Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme (A24) — podcast
Potential Surprise
Regina Hall for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Tânia Maria for The Secret Agent (Neon)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Netflix
Projected Nominees
1. Hamnet (Focus) — Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
3. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
4. Bugonia (Focus) — Will Tracy
5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Guillermo del Toro — podcast 1 and 2
Alternate
Nuremberg — James Vanderbilt
Potential Surprise
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — Rian Johnson — podcast
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century) — Scott Cooper
Best Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
2. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
3. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
4. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho
5. It Was Just an Accident (Neon) — Jafar Panahi
Alternate
Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — Robert Kaplow
Potential Surprise
Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Left-Handed Girl (Netflix) — Sean Baker & Shih-Ching Tsou — podcast (Baker)
Best International Feature
Image Credit: Neon
Projected Nominees
1. Norway — Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. Spain — Sirat (Neon)
3. Brazil — The Secret Agent (Neon)
4. Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab (Willa)
5. France — It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
Alternate
Japan — Kokuho (GKIDS)
Potential Surprise
Iraq — The President’s Cake (Sony Classics)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Italy — La Grazia (Mubi)
Best Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Netflix
Projected Nominees
1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)
2. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (still seeking U.S. distribution)
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)
4. The Alabama Solution (HBO)
5. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple)
Alternate
Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)
Potential Surprise
Cutting Through Rocks (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
My Mom Jayne (HBO)
Best Animated Feature
Image Credit: Disney
Projected Nominees
1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
2. Zootopia 2 (Disney)
3. Arco (Neon)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS)
5. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle (Sony/Crunchyroll)
Alternate
Elio (Disney/Pixar)
Potential Surprise
The Bad Guys 2 (Universal)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
In Your Dreams (Netflix)
Best Casting
Image Credit: Neon
Projected Nominees
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
4. Hamnet (Focus) — Nina Gold
5. Sirat (Neon) — Nadia Acimi & Luís Bértolo
Alternate
The Secret Agent (Neon) — Gabriel Domingues
Potential Surprise
Sentimental Value (Neon) — Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Stéphane Batut
Best Cinematography
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures / Apple Original Films
Projected Nominees
1. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
3. Hamnet (Focus) — Lukasz Zal
4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Dan Laustsen
Alternate
Marty Supreme (A24) — Darius Khondji
Potential Surprise
F1 (Apple) — Claudio Miranda
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Linus Sandgren
Best Costume Design
Image Credit: Parisa Taghizadeh/Amazon
Projected Nominees
1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Kate Hawley
2. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Paul Tazewell
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter (podcast)
4. Hamnet (Focus) — Malgosia Turzanska
5. Marty Supreme (A24) — Miyako Bellizzi
Alternate
Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Lindsay Pugh
Potential Surprise
Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) — Colleen Atwood & Christine Cantella
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Song Sung Blue (Focus) — Ernesto Martinez
Best Film Editing
Image Credit: Agata Grzybowska/Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Michael Shawver
3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
4. Hamnet (Focus) — Affonso Gonçalves & Chloé Zhao
5. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione
Alternate
Sentimental Value (Neon) — Olivier Bugge Coutté
Potential Surprise
Frankenstein (Netflix) — Evan Schiff
Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) — Viridiana Lieberman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: A24
Projected Nominees
1. Frankenstein (Netflix)
2. The Smashing Machine (A24)
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
5. Marty Supreme (A24)
Alternate
Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
Potential Surprise
The Ugly Stepsister (IFC)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
28 Years Later (Sony)
Best Original Score
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix
Projected Nominees
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Johnny Greenwood
3. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
4. Hamnet (Focus) — Max Richter
5. Sirat (Neon) — Kangding Ray
Alternate
Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Nicholas Britell (podcast)
Potential Surprise
Tron: Ares (Disney) — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Long Walk (Lionsgate) — Jeremiah Fraites
Best Original Song
Image Credit: Jenna Rosher
Projected Nominees
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick — listen
2. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson & Alice Smith — listen
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Raphael Saadiq & Ludwig Göransson — listen
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass) — Diane Warren (podcast) — listen
5. “Dream as One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Miley Cyrus (podcast), Simon Franglen, Mark Ronson (podcast) & Andrew Wyatt — listen
Alternate
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix) — Nick Cave & Bryce Dessner — listen
Potential Surprise
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple) — Sara Bareilles, Brandi Carlile & Andrea Gibson — listen
Shoulda Been a Contenda
“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — Daniel Blumberg
Best Production Design
Image Credit: 20th Century Studios
Projected Nominees
1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Beachler
3. Hamnet (Focus) — Fiona Crombie
4. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jack Fisk
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Dylan Cole & Ben Procter
Alternate
Bugonia (Focus) — James Price
Potential Surprise
Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Nathan Crowley
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Roofman (Paramount) — Inbal Weinberg
Best Sound
Image Credit: Universal Studios
Projected Nominees
1. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
3. Frankenstein (Netflix)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
5. Sirat (Neon)
Alternate
Wicked: For Good (Universal)
Potential Surprise
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Marty Supreme (A24)
Best Visual Effects
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros.
Projected Nominees
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
2. Frankenstein (Netflix)
3. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
4. Superman (Warner Bros.)
5. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Alternate
Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Potential Surprise
The Lost Bus (Apple)
Shoulda Been a Contenda
Mickey 17 (Warner Bros.)
Best Animated Short
Image Credit: Locksmith Animation/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees
1. Retirement Plan
2. Cardboard
3. I Died in Irpin
4. Playing God
5. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Alternate
Butterfly
Potential Surprise
The Shyness of Trees
Best Documentary Short
Image Credit: Courtesy of Filmmakers
Projected Nominees
1. We Were the Scenery
2. All the Empty Rooms
3. Last Days on Lake Trinity
4. Classroom 4
5. Cashing Out
Alternate
All the Walls Came Down
Potential Surprise
Heartbeat
Best Live-Action Short
Image Credit: The New Yorker/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees
1. Extremist
2. Rock, Paper, Scissors
3. Two People Exchanging Saliva
4. A Friend of Dorothy
5. The Singers
Alternate
The Boy With White Skin
Potential Surprise
Jane Austen’s Period Drama