CJ Carr’s ceiling, do-overs of the Marcus Freeman era and more in the Notre Dame mailbag

Now we’re into the offseason, for real.

College football has a national champion. Notre Dame has a transfer portal haul. Marcus Freeman seems to be everywhere. And spring practice is still two months away. You’ve got plenty of questions about how we got to this point and where it’s all headed as Notre Dame gears up for a season that has “CFP run or bust” energy already.

Let’s get started.

(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)

If you could magically replay one snap of the Freeman era, what would you choose? Fourth-and-goal from the 11-yard line against Texas A&M? Ten men on the field at the end of Ohio State? For the sake of discussion, there’s no guarantee the do-over nets a different outcome. — Tom H.

Without question it’s that fourth-and-goal from the 11-yard line against Texas A&M. According to the ESPN analytics, the Irish had a 70.5 percent chance to win the game when the Aggies snapped the ball back to Marcel Reed, before Donovan Hinish got held and before Reed lofted a pass to backup tight end Nate Boerkircher, who hadn’t caught a touchdown since he was a redshirt freshman at Nebraska three years ago.

It’s not just the likelihood of Notre Dame getting a better outcome on a do-over; it’s the fact that the Irish would be a stone-cold lock for the College Football Playoff with that win … with the Aggies potentially knocked out the way Miami knocked out Notre Dame. You might have heard that head-to-head matters. And if the Irish are in the 12-team field? Who knows, maybe they’d have been playing on Monday night.

The only play with similar stakes to the Texas A&M touchdown that I’ve covered was Matt Leinart hitting Dwayne Jarrett on fourth-and-9 from the 26-yard line in the Bush Push game. There was just 1:32 left in the game, USC was out of timeouts and Notre Dame could have knelt out the game with any stop. The Irish might have been playing that Vince Young Texas team in the national title game. Again, there is a high likelihood of a different outcome with incredible stakes if it happens.

You mentioned the 10 men on the field against Ohio State, but ESPN analytics gave the Buckeyes a 76 percent chance to win after they got down to the goal line. And even if the Irish do get that stop, it’s not clear the season goes any differently. That felt similar to the offensive pass interference penalty called on Notre Dame at Florida State in 2014. Yes, it wiped out the game-winning touchdown that would have been an iconic Notre Dame moment. And yet that season probably still goes off the rails due to injuries and the defensive coordinator.

I realize this is a thought experiment Notre Dame fans probably don’t want to entertain, but what’s one positive play under Freeman that could flip the outcome of a game if it’s replayed? Again, there’s no guarantee that Notre Dame wouldn’t get the same result. Jayden Harrison’s kickoff return against Georgia? Beaux Collins getting flagged for a personal foul at Texas A&M? Aamil Wagner’s fumble recovery against Penn State? Only hardy souls would venture down this path.

CJ Carr certainly had a fantastic season, especially for a first-year starter. What is the goal for Year 2? What’s the biggest thing the coaches want him to address? — Matthew P.

I’m fascinated to see how much Carr’s experience boosts his production next season, in contrast to how defenses play him differently now that Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are no longer in the backfield. Defenses aren’t going to overload the box to stop Aneyas Williams. The junior is talented, but Love and Price were terrors for defensive coordinators. They had to respect them so much that every play felt like Notre Dame got the benefit of a play-action fake without faking the handoff.

The most significant growth opportunity for Carr is the USC game, which was by far his worst performance of the season. His 31.1 QBR (per ESPN) against the Trojans was his only game under 60. For the sake of context, Carr’s QBR at Miami in his first career start was 79.6. And he exceeded 90 five times (Purdue, Arkansas, Boston College, Navy and Stanford).

The USC game was the only time all season where one bad throw seemed to turn into two, then three, then that awful interception before halftime. It felt like Carr got into his own head and didn’t know how to get out, nor did the coaching staff know how to pull him back from the brink. For almost every game next season, that kind of mental funk shouldn’t matter, with the apparent exception of BYU and Miami. However, it’s hard to see the Irish beating the Cougars and Hurricanes if Carr goes into a funk again.

Yes, there are throws Carr can fine-tune. He missed some shot plays last season. It’s not clear whether offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock knew how to maximize Carr on fourth down or in short yardage. Carr’s leadership should be better, though it was already outstanding last season, to the point that some players thought he could have been a captain as a sophomore despite not winning the job until mid-August.

Carr is already quite good. He’ll be better than that next season. But understanding how to pull himself out of a skid is an area of necessary improvement, especially if Notre Dame plans to play deep into January, because the defenses Notre Dame would see in the CFP are too good not to push Carr to his limits.

On Jan. 11, you equated Notre Dame’s start in the portal as “being down 10-0 in the second quarter.” What score would you equate to how they finished the game? — Ryan S.

Notre Dame won 38-13.

I realize this won’t be the case the next time Notre Dame falls behind in a game, in recruiting or in the portal, but maybe the overreaction from earlier this month can be a reminder to withhold judgment until it’s (literally or figuratively) halftime? Not saying there aren’t omens worth acknowledging, like the first half against Texas A&M and Notre Dame missing on another five-star prospect under Brian Kelly.

But for the most part, it’s worth remembering that Notre Dame is near the top of the food chain in this sport. Things typically work out for schools like that.

The next portal cycle Notre Dame doesn’t host anybody on opening weekend, relax. Or at least stay off the message board.

Between transfers and incoming freshmen, something like one-third of the roster will be different. Who will be the top three to five most impactful new faces for next season? — Jimmy R.

By my count, Notre Dame will have 98 scholarship players on next year’s roster. And there are 36 newcomers within that group, which is 36.7 percent of the roster. That’s a lot of new blood to get acclimated.

My hunch is that the most impactful new face will be defensive tackle Francis Brewu, but the second-most impactful will be new defensive line coach Charlie Partridge. The defensive line wasn’t efficient enough last season when Notre Dame needed it, especially early in the season. When Freeman lamented over and over about Notre Dame’s inability to get pressure with its front four, he was begging the position to step up.

The defensive line did, producing more pressures in last year’s 12-game schedule than it did in 16 games a year earlier. But the nine pressures at Miami was a disappointment that lingered, even with the defensive line posting 20 pressures against USC.

Partridge, especially with his knowledge of how defensive coordinator Chris Ash likes to call a game, can be a force multiplier. We probably won’t be hearing the head coach talking about how fronts and coverages are married like he did last season.

This is a blind guess, but it’s hard to imagine Mylan Graham and/or Quincy Porter not giving Notre Dame something this season, although it’s hard to know which one. Porter is expected to miss part of the offseason while recovering from knee surgery. Both are raw athletes with high potential, but Notre Dame is all too experienced with elite receiver recruits not quite panning out. Can the Irish get at least one to hit this season?

What would have to happen to force Notre Dame to join a conference? Former athletic director Jack Swarbrick set the criteria: money, access to the playoffs and access to quality opponents. Items No. 2 and  No. 3 are shakier than they’ve ever been right now. — Dan M.

To clarify, Swarbrick’s requirements for Notre Dame’s independence were: 1. Access to the football national championship. 2. A committed media partner. 3. A home for Notre Dame’s Olympic sports. Scheduling was never a specific box to check, perhaps because it felt much easier 10 years ago than it does now. But you’re right to bring it up, because without a competitive schedule, Notre Dame’s access to the CFP feels restricted.

And next year’s schedule might be one of those little-margin-for-error kind of schedules. The Irish face just three teams that finished in the final AP Top 25: No. 2 Miami, No. 11 BYU and No. 23 Navy. All due respect to the Midshipmen, but when that turns out to be the third-toughest game on the schedule in terms of rankings, it’s not a good place to be.

I hope to write more in-depth stories about scheduling this offseason, the challenges Notre Dame faces and how it’s navigating them. Still, I think it’s fair to say football scheduling is getting harder by the season for an independent in the face of the Big Ten and SEC taking a more siloed approach to the sport (the Big Ten is much worse about this than the SEC).

However, as long as Notre Dame has the NBC contract, the ACC remains viable and the Irish have reasonable access to the CFP — remember, the field isn’t getting any smaller — the school can continue to travel as an independent.

Curt Cignetti built a monster by taking portal players with high production at smaller schools rather than players with high potential and high recruiting rankings. Freeman seems to have done the opposite. Any concern that some of the new players might not pan out? — Tom H.

Interesting question, because Freeman’s approach had aligned more with Cignetti until this offseason.

I think it’s fair to assume Notre Dame won’t have as high a hit rate with its portal pickups moving forward if it takes freshmen and sophomores more than graduate students. The program’s ability to target game-ready talent these past few seasons has been absolutely remarkable.

In the last five portals, Notre Dame took 28 incoming transfers, and how many would you say didn’t work out? Four? It’s fair to say Devyn Ford, Kaleb Smith, Kris Mitchell and Antonio Carter never clicked. You could maybe discuss Noah Burnette and Jalen Stroman.

The flip side of taking guys with multiple years of eligibility remaining is you’re not going to get college tape to evaluate, which is infinitely more valuable than high school highlights or recruiting rankings. I think Graham and Porter have massive potential, but would you feel better about next season if the Irish signed Malachi Fields and Will Pauling again? Probably. Porter and Graham arrived with 233 career combined snaps. Fields and Pauling showed up with 2,938.

This is what makes a player like Brewu so valuable. He has multiple years of eligibility and has played in college games, getting 484 snaps last season at Pitt, which would have led Notre Dame’s defensive line. His 736 career snaps are more than Boubacar Traore, Jason Onye or Bryce Young. With defensive tackle Tionne Gray and defensive end Keon Keeley, you’re hoping you can get something impactful, if not this season, then beyond. With Brewu, you’re getting it right away.

One statistical quirk: Cornerback DJ McKinney’s 2,093 career snaps are more than the rest of Notre Dame’s portal acquisitions combined (1,695).

Would love your opinion on game day in South Bend. What’s the most overrated game-day experience? What’s the most underrated? — Chris B.

This might sound like a cop out, but I’m probably the worst person to ask about this, unless you count “postgame Papa John’s in the press box while podcasting” a game-day experience. I do enjoy watching the pregame player walk from the stadium’s upper concourse, but for the most part, I don’t get to see much of what makes game day unique.

So, you tell me, dear reader. In the comments, what are the most underrated and overrated parts of the Notre Dame game-day experience?