They are two of the heaviest hitters on the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz, and on Saturday (7:30 p.m. local, 3:30 a.m. ET) they’ll be the last two playing for the Australian Open title on their favorite surface.

There’s a roof over Rod Laver Arena, but this fiery collision between No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 5 Elena Rybakina might invoke Melbourne Park heat rules. Call it the Thunder Down Under. They’ve each won all 12 of their sets this fortnight — the last time that happened at a Grand Slam was more than 17 years ago.

Sabalenka, into her fourth straight Australian Open final — something only Evonne Goolagong and Martina Hingis had done previously in the Open era — is 34-6 at the Australian Open.

“I just love this place,” Sabalenka told reporters after defeating Elina Svitolina 6-2, 6-3 in the semifinals on Thursday. “I love this stadium. Every time I’m competing there, I really enjoy my time.”

Rybakina is a tidy 20-6 in Melbourne after a 6-3, 7-6 (7) win over Jessica Pegula. She reached the final here in 2023, losing 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 to Sabalenka, who collected the first of her four major titles. Rybakina won her only Grand Slam title at Wimbledon in 2022, and that Aussie encounter was her second major final.

Three years later, she’s into her third.

“Definitely very happy to be in the final again,” Rybakina said. “I was close other years, seasons, when I played semis in the other Slams, But yeah, now I’m closer, which is great. It’s just one step to go.”

So, who actually hits the ball harder? Hard to say, but Sabalenka offered praise for her opponent ahead of the final.

“Her shots are heavy, deep, flat balls,” Sabalenka said. “It’s not easy to work with, but yeah, we have a great history. She’s an incredible player. I’m looking forward to [battling] this power.”

So are we. WTAtennis.com writers Greg Garber and Brad Kallet break it down.

Australian Open final: Aryna Sabalenka [1] vs. Elena Rybakina [5]

Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 8-6. But, as per usual, these numbers can be sliced in different ways. Sabalenka enjoys a 5-4 edge on outdoor hard courts, but Rybakina has won three of their four championship matches, including their last meeting — a 6-3, 7-6 (0) win for Rybakina in the 2025 WTA Finals title match.

What’s at stake: Sabalenka is looking to win her third Australian Open title in four years. Melbourne, where she’s won 20 of her past 21 matches, is her happy place. Meanwhile, Rybakina comes in with some crazy momentum. Going back to last year, she’s won 19 of her past 20 matches. The World No. 5 has also won nine straight matches against Top 10 players.

The Case for Sabalenka

Greg Garber: Her power game is made for these hard courts. All four of Sabalenka’s major titles have come on hard courts, and this is her seventh straight hard-court final ar a Grand Slam, something only Hingis has accomplished since 1988. With a 68-12 record, Sabalenka has the best winning percentage (85%) of any active woman in hard-court majors. She doesn’t have the gaudy serving numbers of Rybakina, but she leads all players in Melbourne with 172 winners. (Rybakina has 135.)

Sabalenka reached three of the four Grand Slam finals last year, winning only the US Open. Brad, to me this is the crux of the situation: Sabalenka has repeatedly expressed her disappointment in losing the 2025 Australian Open final to Madison Keys, and later falling in the Roland Garros final to Coco Gauff. These major finals are the pivot point of legacies, and Sabalenka wants this one very badly.

“I actually know what was wrong in all of those finals that I played and I lost,” she told reporters. “I would say that last year was lots of lessons, lots of things to learn about myself, and definitely not going to happen again this season. I feel like those frustration[s] were coming from not agreeing of what’s going on in the moment, and right now my mentality is I’m ready to do whatever, whatever is [necessary] in that final.”

The Case for Rybakina

Brad Kallet: It’s almost impossible to make a case for any player to beat Sabalenka right now — unless that player is Rybakina.

These have been the two hottest players on the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz since the US Open. In fact, Sabalenka has only lost twice since winning that US Open — to Jessica Pegula in a third-set tiebreak in Wuhan and Rybakina in the WTA Finals title match. Rybakina rode her serve in that match, with 13 aces, and wasn’t broken. The most striking part of that scoreline was the clinching 7-0 tiebreak in the second set, the first time that Sabalenka had ever been shut out in a tiebreak. Earlier in the year, Sabalenka had gone eight months without dropping one, having won 19 straight. 

Rybakina has now win 19 of her past 20 matches — a walkover to Linda Noskova notwithstanding — a fact that’s even more impressive considering the competition she’s faced over that stretch. The former Wimbledon champion has won nine straight matches against Top 10 opponents, including straight-set wins over Pegula and Iga Swiatek this week. And as incredible as Sabalenka has looked this tournament, she’s yet to face a Top 10 player through the first six rounds. Rybakina will pose challenges that she has yet to deal with in Melbourne.

The most notable challenge is Rybakina’s serve, the best on the WTA Tour and the best this tournament. Rybakina has 41 aces in Melbourne, the most of anyone in the field, and if her serve is on and she’s picking up free points, she’s incredibly difficult to beat. Rybakina lost their first Australian Open final, but she turns the tide this time.