What does Chicago Blackhawks’ salary cap space look like in 5 years?: Mailbag

Welcome to the final installment of my Olympic break Chicago Blackhawks mailbags.

You can read Part 1 here and Part 2 here. Below is the final part. Thanks, as always, for your questions and for reading.

What do you think the Blackhawks’ salaries and salary cap numbers will look like in three, five and seven years from now? —Tyler M.

This is something I’ve wanted to take on as a mini-project but haven’t followed through. This isn’t an exact science but more of a ballpark estimate.

Let’s look at three seasons from now: the 2028-29 season.

• Frank Nazar ($6,599,991), Spencer Knight ($5,833,333), Alex Vlasic ($4.6 million) and Ryan Donato ($4 million) are the known money. They will all still be under contract.

• Connor Bedard will be on his second contract. Whether that will be a short- or long-term deal is the unknown, but it really doesn’t matter a ton. He’s going to get his. Let’s say he has a $13 million cap hit.

• Wyatt Kaiser and Louis Crevier are due new contracts after the 2026-27 season. As of now, they both look like players the Blackhawks will want to keep for some time. Let’s say Kaiser gets bumped up to $4.5 million and Crevier gets $3 million.

• Artyom Levshunov and Sam Rinzel will be on their second contracts, too. Their production during the 2026-27 season will set the path for their next deals. If they’re putting up points next season, they’ll become the Blackhawks’ highest-paid defensemen. If their development isn’t on track, short-term deals might be in the cards. For the sake of this exercise, let’s say they sign for a combined $16 million cap hit.

• Kevin Korchinski is due a new contract after the 2025-26 season. Maybe he’ll sign a short-term deal with both sides hoping he’ll earn a long-term contract afterward. His next contract won’t be much different than his entry-level cap hit.

• Oliver Moore, Nick Lardis and Ryan Greene will be on their second contracts by the 2028-29 season. Lardis probably has the greatest chance of the three to earn a significant second contract. He has two more years on his entry-level deal and will get paid if he can prove to be an NHL goal scorer. Let’s say Lardis gets a $5 million cap hit on a short-term deal. Moore and Greene burned their first entry-level years last season, so they’ll be arriving at their second deals after the 2026-27 season. The Blackhawks may look to lock up both players long-term. Let’s say Moore and Greene sign for a combined $8 million.

• Anton Frondell and Roman Kantserov will still likely be on their entry-level deals. Marek Vanacker is another first-round pick who would be on his entry-level deal. The Blackhawks’ 2026 early first-round pick will likely still be on an entry-level deal. If Sacha Boisvert turns pro after his college season and burns the first year of his ELC, he’ll be on his second deal come the 2028-29 season, too.

Overall, the Blackhawks should still have a ton of cap space in the 2028-29 season.

Next, let’s do the 2030-31 season.

• Nazar’s contract will still be ongoing. That’s the only known.

• Bedard could be nearing the end of a short-term deal by the 2030-31 season if he goes that route. Not to get too far into the weeds with Bedard’s contract, but I’d assume he’ll always be the Blackhawks’ highest-paid player. Is that $15 million or $20 million? It’ll all depend on the length of his deals and where the ceiling is when he signs each time.

• Frondell and Kantserov will be on their second contracts by then. If they are legitimate top-six players, their second contracts are going to be costly, too.

• Knight is due another contract before the 2029-30 season. If he’s still their guy, he’ll want high-end goalie money. There’s no reason to get into actual numbers, but he’d be highly paid.

• Vlasic is due another contract before the 2030-31 season. He’ll want a bump and be paid similar to experienced defensive defensemen. That could be somewhat costly.

• Would Levshunov and Rinzel still be on their second contracts or due their third ones? If the Blackhawks can sign them to long-term deals early on, they could be taken care of already for the 2030-31 season. If not, they’ll likely be even more expensive. If both players pan out as the Blackhawks hope, both will be highly paid, too.

• Boisvert, Vanacker, Václav Nestrašil and the Blackhawks’ early 2026 first-round pick would all likely be on second contracts then.

• We already discussed Lardis, Moore and Greene.

Overall, the Blackhawks would probably start to feel the cap get tighter. How tight likely depends on how many of their young players sign short- or long-term deals.

Finally, let’s do the 2032-33 season.

I’m not going down this rabbit hole too far, but the cap could become a problem again for the Blackhawks by the 2032-33 season. Bedard will be 27 then, just to give you some context. Nazar will be in the final year of his deal. Other than him, though, cost control could be out the window. Their cap ceiling could be bursting. Everyone will want to get paid on second, third or fourth contracts. There will likely be choices between signing established players into their 30s or walking away from them.

Davidson’s rebuild is supposed to guard the Blackhawks from falling into the same traps as before. He saw how the Blackhawks held onto players for too long in the past. This time, the prospect cupboard is supposed to be full longer.

The 2032-33 season is a ways away, but it is fun to project. We shall see.

Will the Blackhawks re-sign Ilya Mikheyev? (Charles LeClaire / Imagn Images)

Two questions: 1. How has Artyom Levshunov reacted to his benching and extra work with the coaches? 2. If the Hawks trade Ilya Mikhayev at the deadline, what are their chances of re-signing him as a free agent? — Michael B.

1. Levshunov seemed to be in good spirits when I talked to him before the break. He knows he wasn’t playing well enough, but he also didn’t think he was playing consistently terrible. He seemed to have a pretty honest opinion of himself. I think the Blackhawks have drawn a specific plan for him, and he seems to be buying into it. He doesn’t mind putting in the work with director of skill development Brian Keane and his staff. Levshunov planned to train in Florida during the Olympic break.

2. I don’t think the Blackhawks will re-sign Mikheyev if they trade him. I know that scenario is brought up every year, but it rarely works out that way. It’s probably one or the other.

Will the Hawks ever retire Steve Larmer’s number? Do you know why they have not? — Simon M.

I wouldn’t hold my breath on this one. Between the guidelines the Blackhawks introduced for future retirements and the team starting its own Hall of Fame, I don’t think Larmer will ever have his number retired. He’ll be part of the first class of the Blackhawks Hall of Fame, and that might be enough for the team.

I also assume the Blackhawks will plan jersey retirements for Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane for the coming years as they retire and are inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame.

As for why, I don’t think it’s anything personal. He’s just not seen as being in that exclusive tier. Getting into the Hockey Hall of Fame would likely help his case.

Boisvert got suspended at BU for that fight, and now he’s been moved to LW after BU brought in top draft prospect Tynan Lawrence, who is his center. Do the Blackhawks want Boisvert changing positions from natural center (they tried to do that with Moore, and it didn’t work)? Do they have any say on what BU does with their draftee? Isn’t it better if Boisvert turns pro after this season? What is your informed opinion? — Raymond K.

The Blackhawks don’t have any say about a prospect on someone else’s team. The Blackhawks will communicate directly with their prospect and discuss development, and there might be some communication with the coaching staff just for check-ins, but the Blackhawks don’t have control of what happens in team decisions. I don’t get the sense that the Blackhawks are too concerned about Boisvert at Boston University right now. It’s been a trying season for him, especially with his injury, and the team hasn’t been great. I do think Boisvert will turn pro after his college season. That was the feeling before the year.

When Dominic James elected not to sign with the Blackhawks, was it strictly based on seeing a clearer path to the NHL with another club with fewer prospects? Or did he have a beef with the team regarding development? Or the fact that they did not try to sign him earlier? Also, to what extent did they attempt to sign him, and what options are available to them? For example, to what extent are they allowed to sweeten his ELC, either with money or by making it a one-way contract? — Notjon S.

The Blackhawks had a lot of love for Dominic James and wanted to sign him. They just didn’t want him to burn the first year of his entry-level contract after his last college season. They wanted him to finish out last season in AHL Rockford, then join training camp under an NHL deal. They believed that was best for his development. I think part of it was that they were already planning for Moore, Rinzel and Greene to play in the NHL after their college seasons.

In retrospect, maybe they should have let him burn it. I don’t know. I do think the Blackhawks have been aggressive in signing their prospects and might be even more so in the coming years as their pipeline continues to build up. Prospects are fully aware of which other prospects are in a team’s system. The Blackhawks know that. They don’t want more prospects to wait out their draft rights and become free agents.

What type of team is KD building? Like a traditional top six, checking line and energy line, or a more modern NHL roster of a top nine (three scoring lines, like a top plus two second lines) plus four or five “matchup players” to make up a fourth line, depending on opponent or current success? A traditional top-two pairing plus a shutdown/physical third pairing or three “equal” pairings to more easily even out TOI to keep D fresher for back-to-backs and playoffs. — Michael M.

I think it all depends on player development in the next few years. I do think they have a chance to load up their first three lines if enough of their picks pan out. Bedard, Frondell, Kantserov, Nazar, Boisvert, Lardis, Vanacker and Moore are in that conversation. Players such as Greene, Landon Slaggert, Colton Dach, A.J. Spellacy and Samuel Savoie likely comprise a more traditional fourth line.

With the defense, it feels like the pairings are already established. Vlasic and Crevier are more of the shutdown pairing. Levshunov, Rinzel and Kaiser are more offensive in the other two pairings. Korchinski and Del Mastro could emerge as that other left-handed defenseman. Both are no longer waiver-exempt next season, so we might have more of an answer then.