The struggle the United States has waged in recent years is not only military or diplomatic. It is first and foremost a strategic economic battle over shaping a new world order.
At the center of this arena stands China, the largest economic rival of the United States, alongside a tightening axis with Iran and Russia. This triangle of interests challenges American hegemony, undermines the dollar, and seeks to build an alternative trade and energy system to the one Washington has led since World War II.
The core US interest is clear: to halt China’s economic rise before it becomes a technological, industrial, and financial superpower. The trade war that began during the presidency of Donald Trump was not merely a tactical move but a long-term strategic doctrine.
Tariffs, restrictions on advanced semiconductors, investment barriers, and the disruption of supply chains were all designed to slow the Chinese engine. But China does not operate alone. It has secured political and energy backing by aligning with Russia and Iran, both declared adversaries of Washington.
Russia supplies China with discounted gas and oil. Iran provides vast quantities of oil. In return, China offers both countries economic and technological lifelines in the face of Western sanctions. Iran, which exports about 90% of its oil to China, is now almost entirely dependent on Beijing. This relationship is not only commercial but strategic. It creates mutual dependence that weakens Washington’s leverage unless it chooses to significantly intensify economic pressure.
This is where Venezuela enters the picture. The South American country holds one of the largest oil reserves in the world, but its economy has collapsed over the past decade. For Washington, Venezuela is a major bargaining chip in the energy struggle against China. If the US manages to steer Venezuelan oil exports, whether through sanctions or arrangements, it can influence global oil supply and prices. In other words, control over energy pipelines means control over the balance of economic power.
Trump, a businessman by nature, views this campaign primarily as a high-stakes financial game. A multibillion-dollar deal with Saudi Arabia aimed at strengthening the economic and security alliance and ensuring the flow of oil to Western markets is a strategic move.
Cutting off or reducing oil supplies to China would place double pressure on the Chinese economy and on Iran, which depends on it. This is an economic chess game in which the pieces are nations, but the objective is China’s growth rate and its ability to finance global ambitions.
Conflict with Iran
The US is not interested in a prolonged war with Iran. A direct and extended military conflict could cost hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, disrupt markets, drive up energy prices, and undermine the US economy itself. Beyond that, war would push Iran even closer to China and Russia.
Washington therefore prefers a short conflict, relying on military capabilities not yet seen in the region and weapons designed to deliver a paralyzing blow to the Iranian terror regime. Trump still favors an arrangement that preserves economic leverage and avoids a costly escalation, but it is far from clear whether he could control the outcome once a war begins.
An agreement with Iran is not the ultimate goal. The real objective is dismantling the Gordian knot linking China, Russia, and Iran. As long as these three countries cooperate, they form an economic and energy bloc capable of challenging the West. Russia provides weapons and energy, Iran supplies raw resources and regional leverage, and China delivers capital, technology, and a vast market. This combination poses a strategic threat to the US.
The currency struggle
The struggle is not only about oil but also about currency. If China succeeds in expanding trade in yuan, particularly in energy transactions, it would undermine the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. That is why halting or at least limiting Iranian and Saudi oil flows to China is a tool in the battle over currency dominance. Every barrel sold in yuan is another brick in China’s alternative system.
From Iran’s perspective, American economic pressure could crush its economy but also harm China, which benefits from discounted Iranian oil. This is precisely where Trump and US strategists see an opportunity. Concentrated pressure on Iran indirectly strikes China as well. The target is not only Tehran but Beijing. Iran is a link in the chain, not the final destination.
Is the US prepared to pay a diplomatic price if its allies sometimes feel like pawns on a chessboard? Possibly. In Washington, leaders understand that the real struggle is over the global balance of power in the coming decades. Protecting allies matters, but the top priority is containing China. If that requires forcing energy deals, rerouting trade, or imposing aggressive sanctions, it is part of the game.
Ultimately, the supreme US interest is not military war but economic victory. This is a struggle over growth, technology, energy, and currency. China understands this well and is therefore strengthening its axis with Tehran and Moscow. The US understands it no less and is working to dismantle this unholy triangle through economic pressure, energy alliances, and massive deals.
The current global conflict is not fought only on traditional battlefields. It is waged in stock markets, oil pipelines, semiconductor plants, and negotiating rooms. In this struggle, Venezuelan oil, the alliance with Saudi Arabia, and sanctions on Iran are tools in a broader strategy aimed at containing China’s rise and preserving American leadership in a changing world.
The author is the CEO of Radios 100FM, an honorary consul and vice dean of the consular diplomatic corps faculty, president of the Israeli Radio Communication Association, and a former IDF Radio correspondent and NBC television correspondent.