By nature, projection systems tend to converge around a consensus on how a player will perform in the coming season.

Occasionally, though, one or two projections make the case for a player being better or worse than we might think. For each of the six players featured below, at least one projection system deviates from conventional wisdom. With competing expectations comes the need for more draft prep and a deeper dive into a player’s history, which is exactly what I’ll do in each of these six analyses.

For players featured, I’ll list the projected 12-team, 5×5 Roto value and where each system ranks them at their position. Five projection systems — Steamer, ZIPS, ATC, THE BAT X and OOPSY — are included, and the projected stats, values and rankings were taken from the auction calculator tool on FanGraphs.

Now let’s make some sense of the conflicting signals we’re getting from these projection systems.

Note: All references to ADPs are from FantasyPros’ consensus ADP rankings.

Matt Olson, 1B, ATL2026 projections

Proj. Sys.

  

Auc$

  

Rank

  

AVG

  

HR

  

R

  

RBI

  

SB

  

Steamer

$21.6

6

.256

31

89

94

1

ZIPS

$15.0

7

.250

30

86

91

1

ATC

$16.4

9

.248

29

87

93

1

THE BAT X

$9.8

13

.238

27

81

86

1

OOPSY

$20.6

5

.255

33

93

102

1

For the most part, the projection systems agree with Olson’s current 37.0 ADP. While that places him fourth among first basemen, less than three picks separate him from the fifth- and sixth-place occupants, Bryce Harper and Rafael Devers, and seventh-place Freddie Freeman (51.0 ADP) is not too far behind. On the other hand, THE BAT X puts him just behind Vinnie Pasquantino (80.4 ADP) and Alec Burleson (177.0 ADP) — pinning Olson with the lowest home run, run and RBI totals, and forecasting the lowest batting average by a good margin.

The other four systems give Olson a near-normal BABIP of .289 or higher, but THE BAT X saddles him with .278. Over the past three seasons, Olson has neither the history nor the profile of a low-BABIP hitter, so it seems fair to expect him to hit in the vicinity of a .250 batting average. OOPSY and Steamer appear a little too optimistic, so ZIPS and ATC look to provide the safest assessments of Olson’s value. While it’s not a big difference, drafters should probably tier Olson with Freeman rather than Harper and Devers.

Royce Lewis, 3B, MIN2026 projections

Proj. Sys.

  

Auc$

  

Rank

  

AVG

  

HR

  

R

  

RBI

  

SB

  

Steamer

$5.4

11

.252

20

56

62

9

ZIPS

-$8.2

54

.251

14

45

54

9

ATC

$1.0

19

.243

19

56

62

10

THE BAT X

-$0.1

22

.235

17

56

87

10

OOPSY

$6.7

8

.255

21

65

73

14

What’s hardest to project for Lewis is playing time, as injuries have kept him off the field for parts of each of his first four major-league seasons. Not surprisingly, the systems vary greatly in this regard, from ZIPS’ projection of 404 plate appearances to OOPSY’s forecast of 567 plate appearances. The split among the systems in terms of fantasy value is also about their assessments of Lewis’ skills and per-plate-appearance production. Steamer and OOPSY assert that this will be Lewis’ first 20-homer season, and they also see a substantial rebound from back-to-back seasons with a sub-.240 batting average. THE BAT X essentially sees 2026 as a repeat of 2025, though with more plate appearances and much more run-scoring.

Steamer and OOPSY are probably too optimistic about Lewis’ home runs and batting average. He saw a drop in average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives in 2024 (from 95.1 mph in 2023 to 92.4 mph), but it was masked by a high fly-ball pull rate (42.2%) that helped him to produce 16 home runs in just 325 plate appearances. When that pull rate regressed last season, and his EV FB/LD stalled at 92.8 mph, power production dropped. The projections from THE BAT X and ATC appear to be the safest guides for valuing Lewis, even if they may be optimistic about playing time. Given that Lewis is typically being drafted 17th among third basemen, he is probably going a little too early.

Brenton Doyle, OF, COL

Proj. Sys.

  

Auc$

  

Rank

  

AVG

  

HR

  

R

  

RBI

  

SB

  

Steamer

$6.1

41

.245

16

54

56

17

ZIPS

$2.8

54

.250

17

64

63

18

ATC

$10.3

35

.249

18

70

65

21

THE BAT X

$14.9

21

.259

20

75

67

21

OOPSY

$6.7

46

.242

20

67

68

22

Doyle’s production fell off so sharply in 2025 that it might be hard to remember that he was the 11th-ranked Roto outfielder in his breakout 2024 season. Projection systems see Doyle landing somewhere between those two benchmarks, and only THE BAT X projects him to come close to his 2024 value. If you look at the indicators behind Doyle’s power numbers, such as exit velocity, barrel rate and batted-ball profile, there is little reason to think he can’t reach or exceed 20 home runs again.

THE BAT X also makes the bold move of projecting a career-high .325 BABIP for Doyle, which is not as wild as it sounds. Rockies hitters generally enjoy high BABIP rates at Coors Field and low BABIPs in away games, but Doyle’s puny .199 road BABIP from 2025 was beyond comprehension. Doyle’s batted-ball profile is similar to that of teammate Jordan Beck in 2025 and ex-Rockie Jacob Stallings in 2024, and they posted overall BABIPs of .351 and .324, respectively. Despite the reasons for optimism, drafters are taking the pessimistic view (ADP rank of 56th among outfielders) reflected in the ZIPS projection. If you reach just a little bit when targeting Doyle — let’s say in the pick No. 175-200 range — you just might wind up with a top-30 outfielder.

Shane McClanahan, SP, TBR2026 projections

Proj. Sys.

  

Auc$

  

Rank

  

IP

  

W

  

ERA

  

WHIP

  

K

  

Steamer

$15.2

19

142

9

3.35

1.16

158

ZIPS

$12.7

29

111

8

3.32

1.12

117

ATC

$8.0

44

118

8

3.61

1.17

126

THE BAT X

$3.2

54

118

7

4.02

1.22

122

OOPSY

$3.9

59

141

8

3.92

1.21

133

It’s easy to understand why projection systems can’t agree on how McClanahan will perform this year. He missed the past two seasons due to a pair of elbow surgeries, and it’s anyone’s guess whether the 28-year-old will return to his All-Star form. Steamer sees McClanahan as an SP2, projecting him to notch over half a strikeout per nine innings more than he did in 2023. Its projection of 142 innings is also the most optimistic in the group. Steamer and ZIPS are counting on McClanahan continuing his tendency to strand runners at an above-average rate, though it’s not clear if that trend is based on skill or luck.

THE BAT X and OOPSY take the conservative route, expecting McClanahan’s strikeout rate to dip while yielding home runs at rates above his career average. Yet even these pessimistic appraisals leave McClanahan among the top-60 starting pitchers, slightly above his current ADP rank of 68th. Given McClanahan’s long hiatus and the general reluctance of drafters to gamble on him, there is no reason to reach for him, even if you buy into Steamer’s and ZIPS’ sunny projections.

Tyler Glasnow, SP, LAD2026 projections

Proj. Sys.

  

Auc$

  

Rank

  

IP

  

W

  

ERA

  

WHIP

  

K

  

Steamer

$11.8

28

139

10

3.61

1.22

162

ZIPS

$3.5

66

105

5

3.76

1.18

123

ATC

$9.7

39

129

8

3.68

1.17

151

THE BAT X

$2.8

57

129

9

4.20

1.28

139

OOPSY

$13.5

22

135

11

3.39

1.17

156

Glasnow has never logged more than 134 innings in a season, so none of the projection systems are looking for anything close to a typical starter’s full-year workload from him. Despite totaling just 90.1 innings, Glasnow was a top-50 starter in Roto value in 2025, so it shouldn’t be surprising that three of the five projection systems see him reaching that threshold in 2026. There’s not much middle ground, though. OOPSY, Streamer and ATC see him as an SP2 or SP3, while ZIPS and THE BAT X view Glasnow as marginally relevant in 12-team leagues.

The chasm between ZIPS and the three more optimistic projections can be explained almost entirely by their innings estimates. THE BAT X is the only one of these systems that seizes on a negative trend. Glasnow’s strikeout rate has fallen steadily over each of the past three seasons, and THE BAT X has that rate taking another substantial dip, from last year’s 29.0% to 25.5%. Targeting Glasnow at his current ADP (108.6, 31st among starters) likely means he needs to stem the erosion in his strikeout rate and finish with approximately 130 innings. Banking on that happening is a gamble, but it’s fair to expect that Glasnow can repeat as a top-50 starter, even if he doesn’t live up to the more optimistic projections.

Jacob Misiorowski, SP, MIL2026 projections

Proj. Sys.

  

Auc$

  

Rank

  

IP

  

W

  

ERA

  

WHIP

  

K

  

Steamer

$0.6

87

139

8

4.10

1.34

152

ZIPS

$6.8

47

117

8

3.86

1.22

142

ATC

$4.4

59

138

9

4.06

1.26

156

THE BAT X

$7.3

38

138

9

3.87

1.25

165

OOPSY

$9.2

37

136

9

3.41

1.26

168

Drafters have a far more optimistic view of the Brewers’ righty than any of the projection systems. None ranks Misiorowski as high as his current ADP rank of 32nd among starting pitchers, though OOPSY and THE BAT X come close. They are the most optimistic in terms of Misiorowski’s strikeout total. OOPSY is the only system that sees him with a mid-3.00s ERA, thanks to a projected 77.0% strand rate that is roughly 5 percentage points above recent major-league norms.

While the best-case scenario of a high strand rate might be unlikely, so perhaps is the 6.6-point percentage drop in strikeout rate (from 31.9% to 25.3%) that Steamer forecasts. Even if Misiorowski avoids Steamer’s worst-case scenario, he could have trouble living up to the expectations set by his current No. 112 ADP. He may not be an SP3, but contrary to Steamer’s projection, Misiorowski is far more than a fringe option for 12-team leagues.

Statistical sources: FanGraphs; Baseball Savant