Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

The number of bubble teams still playing continues to dwindle. On Friday, only five teams listed here at Bubble Watch were in action, and two were playing each other. The action was compelling, though, particularly in Las Vegas.

That late-night Mountain West semifinal showdown between San Diego State and New Mexico was as pivotal a battle as you can find during Championship Week without an automatic bid on the line. The loser almost certainly was destined to miss the NCAA Tournament, while the winner would add a key victory and also get a crack at Utah State for the league title. After a seesaw battle, San Diego State prevailed, likely relegating New Mexico to the NIT. All bubble teams will be cheering hard for Utah State in the title game on Saturday.

In the high-major ranks, Seton Hall and Oklahoma came up short in contests that could have possibly given them the inside track at an at-large bid. The Pirates went 0-7 against UConn, St. John’s and Villanova this season, and that will likely be the reason they get left out of the NCAA Tournament.

Oklahoma is in a group with Florida State and possibly even Cincinnati as teams that are clearly playing well enough right now to be in the tournament. Unfortunately for those squads, though, the entire season (the “body of work”) is what ultimately matters, and their slow starts to the year seem likely to leave them on the outside looking in.

Even with Oklahoma out, the SEC tournament holds a sneaky huge bubble storyline. No. 15 seed Ole Miss is still alive after knocking off Alabama, and the Rebels are dreaming of a “five wins in five days” miracle run to the SEC’s auto-bid. That would be a stunner of a bid stealer on par with NC State’s ACC tournament crown in 2024.

Check out the primer below before you dive in; many of the key terms will be repeated throughout the article. And for a projection of the actual bracket, here’s Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch. 

Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
Locks are teams that have reached a 100 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast. This blends both current resume and forward-looking projections. 
Should Be In teams are close to Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
On the Fringe teams are a few wins short of true bubble consideration.
Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Current Totals

Locks: 38
Should Be In: 2
In the Mix: 14
On the Fringe: 9

ACC

Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (Fla.), North Carolina, Virginia
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: California, NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech
On the Fringe: Florida State, Stanford

In The Mix

California (21-11, 9-9; WAB rank: 53)
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Awful nonconference strength of schedule, poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: It had to be a long, tense plane ride home to Berkeley after Cal went one-and-done at the ACC tournament in Charlotte. The Bears were beaten soundly by Florida State, preventing any chance of Mark Madsen’s team improving its case with a postseason run. We will not say the Bears are finished thanks to the carnage all around them, but this seems like a steep uphill path to the bracket, and Cal is out of climbing gear.

NC State (20-13, 10-8; WAB rank: 43)
Profile Strengths: Overall strong metrics, solid Q1/Q2 record.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess an awful Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Wolfpack came up short against Virginia on Thursday despite battling to the bitter end. If we had to guess, NC State did enough throughout the season (barely) to overcome its late swoon and warrant an at-large bid. But the Wolfpack are still vulnerable to a shrinking bubble, and they certainly will not be comfortable on Selection Sunday until they see their name revealed.

SMU (20-13, 8-10; WAB rank: 46)
Profile Strengths: Decent metrics, zero bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited high-end wins, 9-13 vs. top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Like many other bubble rivals, SMU lost on Wednesday. The mild difference for the Mustangs: They got a somewhat helpful win against Syracuse Tuesday, and they arguably had the “best” loss on the bubble, falling to a surefire NCAA Tournament team in Louisville. That matters because it will create far less drag on their resume metrics, allowing them to “rise” simply by falling less. They remain subject to the whims of bid stealers.

Virginia Tech (19-13, 8-10; WAB rank: 51)
Profile Strengths: Decent resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Hokies could not beat Wake Forest for a second time in three weeks, falling in overtime as starting forward Amani Hansberry surprisingly had to sit due to injury. That’s only a Q2 loss, but the Hokies needed to gain ground in Charlotte. Instead they slid incrementally backwards. Barring a mini-miracle olive branch from the committee, Virginia Tech will not hear its name called on Selection Sunday. In anticipation of that fate, the Hokies preemptively announced they would not be playing in the NIT on Friday.

Big 12

Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Cincinnati
On the Fringe: Arizona State, Oklahoma State

In the Mix

Cincinnati (18-15, 9-9); WAB rank: 66)
Profile Strengths: Two high-end Q1A wins, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess a Q4 loss, poor resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: Cincinnati desperately needed a run at the Big 12 tournament, but the Bearcats lost to UCF in the second round. They did not score a point in the final 2:17 of regulation and lost in overtime, likely dashing their hopes of clawing their way back into the NCAA Tournament with a late-season rally. Their resume metrics simply are not good enough at this stage to realistically expect an at-large bid.

Big East

Locks: St. John’s, UConn, Villanova
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Seton Hall
On the Fringe: None

In The Mix

Seton Hall (21-12, 10-10; WAB rank: 55)
Profile Strengths: Didn’t lose right away in the conference tournament?
Profile Weaknesses: Iffy metrics, only one Q1 win, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: The third time was not the charm for Seton Hall. The Pirates got a third crack at St. John’s, and a win on Friday night could realistically have vaulted them into the field. They came up short again, though, and barring a stunning decision from the selection committee, the Big East looks like a three-bid league for the second time in three seasons. Seton Hall simply does not have enough heft to its resume.

Big Ten

Locks: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana
On the Fringe: USC

In The Mix

Indiana (18-14, 9-11; WAB rank: 52)
Profile Strengths: Two excellent high-end Q1A victories, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 6-14 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: If other bubble teams are fading from view, then Indiana is outright sprinting away. The Hoosiers dropped six of their final seven games, including two to sub-.500 Northwestern (at home and on a neutral court), and are now barely clinging to life. Their profile just does not have enough juice to inspire any sort of confidence. Their only hope is that all remaining bid stealers lose and maybe the committee even feels bad for leaving coach Darian DeVries out of the field last year, when DeVries’ West Virginia team was a shocking exclusion.

SEC

Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Texas A&M
In the Mix: Auburn, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None

Should Be In

Texas A&M (21-11, 11-7; WAB rank: 40)
What They Need: The Aggies lost convincingly to Oklahoma on Thursday night, but they remain in solid shape due to their season-long body of work. Their neutral-site win over Florida State (by 36!) has aged like fine wine, and an 11-7 league record — albeit against a softer SEC slate — looks good, as well. The extra wrinkle: Texas A&M lost to Alabama by three on the road in a game that the now-ineligible Charles Bediako played for the Crimson Tide. Texas A&M may not need any extra consideration, but if the selection committee digs into that nuance, it would only help the Aggies’ already strong case. We expect this team to hear its name on Selection Sunday.

In The Mix

Auburn (17-16, 7-11; WAB rank: 44)
Profile Strengths: Solid metrics, four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses, way under .500 vs. top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: After an impressive first half, the Tigers faded late and could not finish the job. Is that A) a description of Auburn’s season; B) a summary of their loss to Tennessee on Thursday or C) both? If you answered C, congratulations! Steven Pearl’s team could not close the deal against the Volunteers and will now have to bank on the rest of the bubble’s weakness and its elite schedule strength to sneak into the dance. No team has ever gotten in with 16 losses, nor has anyone made the field with an overall record only one game above .500. Auburn must hope for special consideration to sneak into Dayton.

Missouri (20-12, 10-8; WAB rank: 41)
Profile Strengths: Decent metrics, five Q1 wins, no losses outside of Q1+Q2.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero notable nonconference wins.
What They Need: We are knocking the Tigers down to “In the Mix” after a three-game losing streak to end the season. All three defeats were of the Q1 variety, but the Tigers are now flirting with the danger zone. Their metrics have held steady-ish above the presumed cut line, but after they played such a barren nonconference schedule, the selection committee would have a very clear reason to exclude them. The wait until Selection Sunday will be painful for Dennis Gates’ team.

Oklahoma (19-15, 7-11; WAB rank: 49)
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses, middling metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Sooners came up just short against Arkansas in the SEC quarterfinals, and that leaves them in true bubble purgatory. A win might have sealed up a bid, a stunning outcome considering where this team stood just over a month ago. We have had multiple 19-15 at-large teams in recent history – most recently, 2025 Texas – but OU may come up just short despite an admirable late-season surge.

Texas (18-14, 9-9; WAB rank: 47)
Profile Strengths: Strong high-end wins and quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Have a Q3 loss, shaky resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: On Monday, we said all Texas needed to do was beat Oklahoma over the weekend to move up a category. The Longhorns did not oblige. On Wednesday, all they needed to do was beat 12-19 Ole Miss to bump themselves past the rest of the fading bubble. Again, the Longhorns did not oblige. They lost five of their final six games and now must wait in a cold sweat until 6 p.m. ET on Sunday evening while cheering ardently against any and all bid stealers. Texas is a true fringe case.

The Rest

Locks: Gonzaga, Miami (Ohio), Saint Louis, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
Should Be In: Santa Clara
In the Mix: New Mexico, San Diego State, VCU
On the Fringe: Boise State, Belmont, Nevada, South Florida

Should Be In

Santa Clara (26-8, 15-3 West Coast; WAB rank: 36)
What They Need: The main thing the Broncos need at this point is limited bid stealers. They put on a strong showing at the WCC tournament, beating Saint Mary’s for a huge Q1 win and then competing with Gonzaga for 40 minutes in the final (they led at halftime). The metrics look like that of an NCAA Tournament team. So long as the bubble does not constrict severely (A-10, Mountain West surprises), Santa Clara should be in the tournament for the first time since 1996.

In The Mix

New Mexico (23-10, 13-7 Mountain West; WAB rank: 58)
Profile Strengths: 8-8 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Only two Q1 wins, took two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: With Eric Olen in his first season as coach, few expected New Mexico to be in at-large contention. The Lobos vastly exceeded external expectations, but that will be a bitter moral victory after they came tantalizingly close to a win over San Diego State in the Mountain West semifinals. That loss could seal New Mexico’s fate as an NIT team. Crazier things have happened, but the Lobos probably do not have enough on their resume to squeak into the NCAA Tournament.

San Diego State (22-10, 14-6 Mountain West; WAB rank: 45)
Profile Strengths: Excellent NC SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, fringe resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: Thanks to some heroics from BJ Davis in the final seconds, San Diego State prevailed over New Mexico in a monumentally important Mountain West bubble battle. That victory has Brian Dutcher’s squad on the brink of the NCAA Tournament in multiple ways. The Aztecs could be in line for an at-large bid, win or lose, but their best bet would be to topple league favorite Utah State on Saturday and earn the conference’s automatic bid. Their situation is eerily similar to 2024 New Mexico, which many thought could be in before the Mountain West championship game. However, based on the S-curve released by the selection committee, those Lobos needed the automatic bid. The same might be true for San Diego State.

VCU (25-7, 15-3 Atlantic 10; WAB rank: 42)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Just two Q1 wins.
Looking Ahead: The Rams got a scare from Duquesne, but they did enough in the final minute to secure a quarterfinal win in the A-10 tournament. That keeps them squarely in the mix for an at-large bid, and a semifinal win over Saint Joseph’s would put them in great position. Should VCU lose that game, they would be one of the most compelling bubble debates until Sunday evening. The Rams are trending the right way, though, and still have a viable path to the league’s auto-bid as well.

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