Mar 31st, 2026 9:47 AM EDT
Wilson holds up a sneaker during the WNBA All-Star skills contest (USATODAY)
Now that the WNBA’s 30th season will tip off as scheduled on May 8, it’s time for the league’s top players to sign their respective names on the dotted line with whichever club they choose.
One such free agent is four-time MVP A’ja Wilson, who finds herself on the open market for the first time in her career. With that in mind, Bookies.com compiled hypothetical odds on where Wilson lands in the 2026 WNBA season.
A’ja Wilson Next Team Odds
2026 WNBA Season
TeamOddsProb.Chance
Las Vegas Aces Fav
Stay
-60085.7%
Atlanta Dream
+80011.1%
New York Liberty
+12007.7%
Indiana Fever
+15006.3%
Portland Fire
+20004.8%
Toronto Tempo
+25003.8%
The Field
+30003.2%
Odds via bookies.com | Implied probability calculated from moneyline odds | Subject to change
Where Will A’ja Wilson Play in 2026?
A’ja Wilson has spent her entire eight-year career with the Las Vegas Aces, winning four MVP awards and multiple championships since being drafted No. 1 overall in 2018.
Now, for the first time, she hits the open market as part of the most consequential free agency period in WNBA history. While all signs point to Wilson remaining in Las Vegas, she has taken pay cuts to keep teammates around her and built one of the league’s most dominant dynasties, the sheer scale of this free agency class means no return is truly official until ink hits paper.
Our speculative odds heavily favor a reunion with the Aces, with the Atlanta Dream representing the longest credible long shot for a player who has never needed to look elsewhere, at +800.
There’s also a shot that some of the league’s other postseason-caliber franchises, such as the New York Liberty (+1200) and Indiana Fever (+1500), as well as the two new expansion clubs (the Portland Fire, at +2000 and the Toronto Tempo, at +2500), could move in to make a deal for Wilson’s services this offseason.
What Could Complicate A Vegas Return
Wilson was one of two WNBA players, along with New York Liberty star Breanna Stewart, to qualify for the WNBA’s new “supermax” $1.4 million pay level, potentially upping her yearly salary 3.5 times from the $400K she earned last season.
Given Las Vegas’ need to cover expanded player salaries for Wilson’s fellow stars on the Strip like Jackie Young ($1.1 million ‘veteran max’ salary level), Jewell Loyd ($1.1 million) and Chelsea Gray ($650K veteran level), it could prove difficult to keep the gang together and stay under the league’s newfound $7 million salary cap.
Still, based on the way Vegas finished off the year last fall, beating the Phoenix Mercury in a four-game sweep to cap off a third WNBA championship in four years, it’s hard to see Wilson leaving now.
Coming off her eighth year in the league, where she won a third MVP award in four years, it’ll be in Wilson’s hands to decide where she wants to go from here, with no shortage of suitors for her world-class services in and around the paint when the league’s free agency negotiation window opens in early April.
Also: Breanna Stewart Free Agency Odds: Will Stewie Stay in New York?