The first clay 1,000-point tournament of 2026 continues with second-round action on Wednesday. The Monte Carlo tournament is the first real adjustment period for tour pros as they move from North America to Europe. A player might bring strong hardcourt form into Monte Carlo, only to get tripped up by a savvy opponent who knows how to handle the different conditions. Let’s look into some of the interesting second-round matches on the card for Wednesday. I told you earlier this year that I would be shaking up how I did things; these articles are a reflection of that. Let me know in the comments if you approve of the changes or want me to go back to the old way. 

ATP Monte Carlo
Medvedev – Berrettini: Time 11:00
H2H: 3-0

Daniil Medvedev has begun to look more like the top player we saw several years ago, when he was a fixture in the ATP top five and a consistent threat at major tournaments. He won the title in Dubai and then made a run all the way to the Indian Wells final, where he lost to Jannik Sinner. Medvedev has gotten a lot of match play and therefore did not need to play a warm-up event for Monte Carlo last week. Matteo Berrettini did play a warm-up event in Marrakech, but he didn’t make a deep run. The Italian, whose career has been interrupted by injuries, is trying to get his form back to where it once was.

Best Bet to Make

The recent run of wins from Medvedev might seem to make him a clear and strong favorite, but Medvedev was thriving in North America in largely warm and sunny conditions. The weather in Monte Carlo has been anything but for much of this week. Medvedev might not have the same rhythm from the baseline. Berrettini could pull him into a longer match. 

That being said, Over 21.5 games is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Over 21.5 games winning @1.70 @Bet-at-home

Auger Aliassime – Cilic: Time 11:00
H2H: 3-3

Felix Auger-Aliassime comes to Monte Carlo after winning a few matches in Indian Wells and winning only one match in Miami. He has won three straight matches against Marin Cilic, but all on hardcourts. This match is on a clay court, which could change the pace for both players. Marin Cilic is more than a decade removed from his major championship at the 2014 U.S. Open, but he’s still playing. He has nothing to lose and could be a feisty underdog.

Best Bet to Make

The play here is the game spread. Felix might win, but a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline is very possible. That means Cilic would keep the match close in terms of overall games won. You could bet that the match will go three sets (Cilic +1.5 sets), but as long as there’s one tiebreaker in the match, Cilic can cover a modest game spread even without going to a third set. That’s why a games-based bet is better than a sets-based bet.

That being said, Cilic making this match fairly close is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Cilic +3.5 games @1.81 @1bet

Lehecka–Tabilo: Time 11:00
H2H: 2-0

Jiri Lehecka has been playing good tennis. He made a deep run all the way to the Miami final before the dominant World No. 2, Jannik Sinner, defeated him and denied him the trophy. Lehecka has made his way into the top 15 and is trying to accumulate enough ranking points to potentially be a top-eight seed at the French Open or Wimbledon later this year. Alejandro Tabilo won a couple of matches in Miami. Some tennis fans might be surprised that he is ranked inside the top 40, at No. 39. This is a sneaky-good matchup in the second round.

Best Bet to Make

Lehecka is playing well, but Tabilo is a quality opponent. Lehecka played a lot of tennis in the process of making the Miami final. He needed three sets to win his first-round match in Monte Carlo. Lehecka might be ripe for a letdown and a sluggish match in which his legs aren’t fresh or strong. Tabilo is a good player who can take advantage of this situation. He can wear down Lehecka and at least keep the match extremely close, even if he doesn’t win it outright.

That being said, Tabilo covering the spread is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Tabilo +2.5 games @1.78 @Unibet

Rublev–Bergs: Time 11:00
H2H: 1-1

Andrey Rublev and Zizou Bergs both failed to achieve much of anything in Indian Wells or Miami in March. They come to Monte Carlo in April looking for a fresh start in their 2026 tennis seasons. A change of scenery is what both men are hoping for as they begin the European clay swing, adding intrigue to this second-round match. Rublev won an up-and-down three-set match against Nuno Borges, trading 6-1 sets. Bergs dumped Adrian Mannarino in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

One of the overlooked and weird parts of Andrey Rublev’s inconsistent and often puzzling career is that Monte Carlo is actually a place where he has done well. He was the runner-up here in 2021, and he won the championship in 2023, one of his two 1,000-point tournament titles on the ATP Tour. Rublev playing well in Monte Carlo is something that can generally be trusted against non-elite players. Rublev, if he wins the first set, probably will win this match in a straightforward way. He has a bigger game than Bergs and can impose his will in this second-round meeting.

That being said, Rublev winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Rublev -1.5 sets winning @2.15 @10bet

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports