Before the season started, no one saw this coming.

Maybe you thought the Pittsburgh Penguins would be too good to land in the lottery without making any trades. Maybe you thought Rick Tocchet would elevate the Philadelphia Flyers’ rebuild. But for two teams expected to finish near the bottom of the East, it was hard to expect a first-round playoff matchup.

On the 15th anniversary of the wackiest playoff series in the salary cap era, the NHL’s playoff format has delivered with a deliciously unexpected Battle of Pennsylvania rematch.

The odds

Imagine going back in time six months and telling everyone who would listen that a team from Pennsylvania was guaranteed a spot in the second round. That’s exactly where we stand and it’s the Penguins who currently sit in the driver’s seat with a 59 percent chance of advancing.

That’s not undeserved, either. Pittsburgh’s incredible forward depth, elevated by Dan Muse’s system, has rewired the franchise back toward legitimate playoff caliber. The Penguins have a borderline-elite offense that gives them a decent edge over a Flyers team that enters the playoffs as one of the few that are below-average offensively.

Philadelphia’s defensive ability under Tocchet, though, should be up to the task. It’s what makes things closer than some might expect, given what it took for the Flyers to get to this point.

It’s two opposing identities facing off.

The numbers

The Penguins and Flyers may have finished the year tied in standings points, but these two teams are separated by 19 goals in Net Rating.

Each side of this matchup has a clear, defined strength — for Pittsburgh, it’s a plus-26 Offensive Rating, while the Flyers boast a plus-19 Defensive Rating.

Those strengths have only been emphasized since the Olympics, with the Penguins upping their scoring chance creation and scoring a league-high 3.42 goals per 60. Led by some all-time greats, this team has a deep approach with a lot of dimension, between its transition game and ability to extend zone time. And that’s what ultimately gives the Penguins an edge in this series.

Philadelphia’s offense has shown real signs of improvement down the stretch, but improved defense has been the key to this team’s playoff push, and it’s going to be put to the test in this series. Steady goaltending has added even more reinforcements.

It just hasn’t translated to the penalty kill for the Flyers. Despite being one of the better short-handed expected goal suppressors, this team has one of the highest rates of goals against since the NHL returned to play.

The Penguins haven’t been that much better in short-handed situations. But they still have the special teams advantage because their power play is actually effective, unlike the Flyers, who can’t convert on their chances. Philadelphia’s season-wide 5.66 goals per 60 on the advantage sit dead last, despite ranking in the top-10 in xG.

The big question

Can Pittsburgh’s veterans deliver vintage playoff greatness?

We’re getting Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in a playoff series against the Flyers (at least) one last time.

We need to mention this: A player’s career numbers against a specific team are often statistical noise. Crosby’s numbers against Philly, though, might be the exception. In 93 regular-season games against them, he’s put up 60 goals and 79 assists. In three games this season, he has four goals, an assist and a 3.95 Game Score on Dec. 1, his second-highest of 2025-26.

The fact that Penguins-Flyers is a thing at all, in April 2026, is wild. The fact that Crosby and Malkin are still driving the bus for Pittsburgh is predictable, in a sense, because both — albeit to varying degrees — have remained productive, important players despite their age. Now, they have a chance to add another chapter to their postseason resumes. Not that they need it.

Both are Conn Smythe winners (Malkin in 2009, Crosby in 2016 and 2017). Malkin did his best postseason work in his Conn Smythe year, putting up 4.22 points per 60. Crosby’s most productive runs were actually in 2018, when they lost to Washington in the Eastern Conference final (a ridiculous 2.22 goals and 5.17 points per 60), and 2022, when they lost to the Islanders in the first round (two goals, eight assists in six games). That series against the Isles, as recently as this summer, felt like it could’ve been the last time we’d see either player in the postseason.

It wasn’t. Crosby has bounced back from his knee injury at the Milan Olympics, putting up positive Game Scores in nine of his last 10 games after some initial wobbliness and continuing, under Muse, to lean into his effectiveness on the forecheck/cycle game. Malkin, in terms of Net Rating, is on a similar scale with Crosby; he’s played almost entirely on the wing this season, a move that may well extend his career. Does that mean that both are primed to turn the clock back to, say, Pittsburgh’s first-round win over Philadelphia in 2009? Maybe, maybe not — and if they dominate, it’s likely to look at least a bit different. The fact that we’re having the discussion, though, is a treat.

The outlook might be a little less rosy for Kris Letang, Pittsburgh’s other geriatric, three-time champ. The 38-year-old had a genuinely hellish stretch post-Olympics, but since March 31, he has turned things around. Pittsburgh is winning his minutes, and he looks to have jelled with partner Samuel Girard. The Penguins don’t have any other viable answers behind Erik Karlsson on the right side, so they’ll need Letang to keep that up. In other words, if Pittsburgh has itself a nice playoff run, Crosby, Malkin and Letang will each almost certainly play a major role. Some things never change.

The X-factor

Can Porter Martone be Philadelphia’s secret weapon?

Bless Porter Martone for one thing above all else: He gave us all an opportunity to reroute some of the Matvei Michkov discourse to another young, talented winger. Ten points in his first nine professional games, all primary points — not a bad introduction. That type of production is obviously impressive and welcomed for the Flyers, given their overall dearth of offense; before Martone joined the lineup, they were 26th in goals. Since, they’re top-10. Add a top-six winger, and all of a sudden, your lineup makes a lot more sense.

The way Martone has gone about it should be noted, too. In those nine games, he shot the puck nearly 12.5 times per 60 minutes of play. Small sample size? Certainly. Still, that number is nearly three ahead of Owen Tippett and over four more than Michkov, and it puts Martone near the top of the list league-wide, behind only (gulp) Cutter Gauthier and Brady Tkachuk. Down-the-stretch games, even the ones Philadelphia played, aren’t playoff hockey, but it’s easy to imagine Martone making a difference against Pittsburgh. Wingers who combine his brand of physicality, productivity and play-driving are in short supply, and he certainly looks like he’s cut from the Gauthier/Tkachuk cloth.

The rosters

Outside the Big Three, the rest of the aging core in Pittsburgh has pulled its weight this year.

It starts with Erik Karlsson, who has turned back the clock with a fantastic season. The turnaround really started around New Year’s. He averaged a Game Score of 0.75 to open the year, and since Jan. 1, has bumped that up to 1.75, the fifth-best mark among all defensemen.

Karlsson is still a scoring chance machine on the back end, whether he is driving to the slot himself or setting up his teammates. The vision is still a massive strength, but maybe the most impressive part is how that skill has translated in his own zone, from his entry defense to his low-risk retrievals and exits to get the Penguins out of danger. Add in the context of his situation and his matchup role with Parker Wotherspoon, and it makes his defensive game even more impressive.

Up front, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell are still mainstays in the Penguins’ attack. While their respective scoring rates are pretty consistent relative to recent seasons past, the team is generating a lot more quality offense in their minutes this season. The one drawback is their play on the other end of the ice, which leaves the team without a true shutdown option in the top six.

Besides core performances, the other story in Pittsburgh this season is how well this team invested in reclamation projects, and Egor Chinakhov and Anthony Mantha are prime examples of that.

Chinakhov never put it together in Columbus; injuries derailed his progress, along with some less-than-favorable deployment. But he has carved out a top-six role in Pittsburgh. Sharing the ice with a dangerous passer such as Malkin has elevated his scoring, but so have some of his best traits, such as his speedy skating and a hard shot that he is more than willing to use.

Mantha has scored at a career-high rate of 3.07 points per 60 and showed an element of durability that has been missing over the past few seasons. Even Tommy Novak has shown some progress in his first full season with the Penguins; he is building on the puck-moving ability that helped him stand out in Nashville a few years ago.

Chinakhov, Mantha and Novak all take the pressure off Ben Kindel, who has been another bright spot this year on the third line. Add in some solid forecheckers in the bottom-six, such as Blake Lizotte and Justin Brazeau, and the Penguins have a surprisingly deep forward group to lean on.

Based on roster strength alone, the Flyers don’t have the same offensive depth to match up to the Penguins. Martone has shown promise and there have been glimpses of Michkov’s potential that instill a lot of confidence in the future and the overall rebuilding process.

Until those two officially take over, it’s up to Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett and Trevor Zegras to lead the way.

Konency’s production has been consistent over the years in Philadelphia, as a dual-threat who can chip in a little bit of everything. His play with Christian Dvorak has been clutch since the Olympic break. The two have benefited from timely saves and hot shooting to outscore expectations with an 11-4 edge in their five-on-five minutes together.

A move to the Flyers has agreed with Zegras, who is having one of his best seasons. Not only is his scoring on the rise after a couple of tough years in Anaheim, but his two-way game has also been a lot stronger. His crafty passing clicks with Tippett’s shoot-first approach and gives this team a few scoring options.

If the Flyers had elite difference-makers at the top, it would take a lot of pressure off that trio of forwards, who are all better suited as second (and third) wave options.

Instead, Philadelphia has to hope its defensive chops can keep games low-event enough to stay in it.

Noah Cates continues to develop into a real shutdown threat. The return of Tyson Foerster adds a pesky defensive presence and forechecker into the mix. Sean Couturier’s offense may have faded over the last few seasons, but he is still reliable in his own zone, too.

Those same strengths (and weaknesses) trickle onto the blue line.

Travis Sanheim’s defensive game is franchise-worthy, but he doesn’t have the offense to match up to other true No. 1s. Neither does any other Flyers defender.

It all comes down to how much this team can limit, unless they can keep defying the odds by scoring above the sum of their parts.

Rasmus Ristolainen should help with the former. He is set to make his playoff debut in his 13th NHL season and has been a strong fit alongside Sanheim on the top pair that matches up against the opponents’ best. Cam York has also been solid in his own zone, alongside Jamie Drysdale, who is having a breakthrough year.

The key matchup

Stuart Skinner vs. Dan Vladar

This series also has an interesting goaltending narrative. Dan Vladar and Stuart Skinner are both following redemption arcs — Vladar missed out on a chance to succeed Jacob Markstrom as Calgary’s starter, and Skinner, despite some sustained solid play, was too meltdown-prone for Edmonton to keep around for another postseason.

Each, to some degree, has spent his time in Pennsylvania figuring things out. Vladar has brought real stability to the Flyers’ crease, putting up a .906 save percentage in a season when the league average is .896, saving more than 11.4 goals above expected and generally playing like Philadelphia’s most valuable player.

Skinner hasn’t been as good (.888 save percentage) or as crucial to his team’s success. He has, though, saved about 5.4 goals above expected, despite throwing up negative outings in that stat in 12 of his 27 starts with Pittsburgh. Vladar, for perspective, has 18 such starts out of 52. He gives the Flyers an edge, at least on paper.

The bottom line

The Flyers have a defensive identity and a superior goaltender, and they showed flashes of improved offense down the stretch, but Pittsburgh’s scoring depth (and the guy at the top of the lineup) make them the odds-on favorite in one of the first round’s marquee matchups.

References

How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty 

Resources

Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder