Derek CartyApr 22, 2026, 07:58 AM ET
CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.
Multiple Authors
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Wednesday’s top batter prop bets
Brenton Doyle | OVER 0.5 HR (+810)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.22 EV
Fernando Tatis Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+417)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.12 EV
Matt Chapman | OVER 0.5 RBI (+278)
Projection: 31% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.73 EV
Shea Langeliers | OVER 0.5 RBI (+217)
Projection: 35% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.93 EV
Gary Sanchez | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+118)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.13 EV
Wednesday’s top pitcher prop bets
Shohei Ohtani | UNDER 6.5 K (+101)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.26 EV
Tomoyuki Sugano | UNDER 3.5 K (-154)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.86 EV
Braxton Ashcraft | UNDER 5.5 K (-117)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.63 EV
Peter Lambert | UNDER 4.5 K (-164)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.83 EV
Janson Junk | UNDER 2.5 ER (-120)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.59 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
PITCHER
MONEY
LINE
PROJ.
WIN%
VALUE %
RUN
LINE
OV
VALUE %
GAME
TOTAL
O/U
xRUNS
VALUE %
Kyle Leahy
+113
44.3
-5.75
+1.0
-137
-6.58
8.5
O -115
8.72
-13.16
Janson Junk
-136
55.7
-3.26
-1.0
+105
-5.70
U -105
4.55
Peter Lambert
+119
49.3
8.60
+1.0
-131
6.40
8.0
O -108
8.34
-8.36
Tanner Bibee
-143
50.7
-14.34
-1.0
+101
-20.28
U -112
-0.78
Brandon Williamson
+113
50.0
7.42
+1.0
-135
6.36
8.0
O -118
8.53
-9.16
Nick Martinez
-136
50.0
-13.98
-1.0
+104
-20.64
U -102
0.66
Chris Bassitt
+113
48.2
2.13
+1.0
-135
-1.04
9.0
O -115
10.26
1.46
Michael Wacha
-136
51.8
-9.68
-1.0
+104
-11.97
U -105
-10.72
Eric Lauer
+135
35.6
-17.21
+1.0
-111
-16.59
8.0
O -118
7.96
-17.60
Jose Soriano
-163
64.4
4.51
-1.0
-117
4.09
U -102
9.71
Aaron Civale
+159
38.2
-2.36
+1.0
+108
-3.63
7.5
O -110
8.61
3.38
Logan Gilbert
-193
61.8
-5.42
-1.0
-140
-7.99
U -110
-12.47
Chad Patrick
+113
43.8
-7.07
+1.0
-140
-9.19
8.0
O -102
9.05
6.76
Casey Mize
-136
56.2
-2.18
-1.0
+108
-2.18
U -118
-14.85
Martin Perez
-149
60.5
2.09
-1.0
-120
1.40
9.0
O -108
9.56
-8.02
Zack Littell
+123
39.5
-13.23
+1.0
-108
-13.93
U -112
-1.12
Max Fried
-143
55.7
-4.07
-1.0
-112
-6.63
8.0
O -106
7.92
-14.70
Ranger Suarez
+119
44.3
-4.63
+1.0
-116
-5.65
U -123
1.73
Connor Prielipp
+135
41.5
-2.71
+1.0
-114
-4.09
8.0
O -112
8.25
-11.17
Clay Holmes
-163
58.5
-5.45
-1.0
-114
-8.19
U -108
2.21
Taijuan Walker
+144
38.2
-7.87
+1.0
-104
-8.59
8.5
O -110
8.39
-16.23
Matthew Boyd
-175
61.8
-2.19
-1.0
-125
-3.88
U -110
7.14
Braxton Ashcraft
-110
51.4
-1.30
-1.0
+113
-4.19
8.0
O -115
9.01
-0.26
Jack Leiter
-110
48.6
-7.79
+1.0
-148
-7.80
U -105
-8.92
Walker Buehler
-163
65.9
5.85
-1.5
-108
8.99
12.0
O -108
13.84
9.32
Tomoyuki Sugano
+135
34.1
-19.16
+1.5
-112
-17.83
U -112
-18.15
Anthony Kay
+129
45.2
2.80
+1.0
-114
0.94
9.5
O -102
9.80
-11.02
Eduardo Rodriguez
-156
54.8
-9.56
-1.0
-114
-13.22
U -127
-1.57
Shohei Ohtani
-207
63.7
-4.28
-1.5
-122
-5.40
7.5
O -115
8.75
3.31
Tyler Mahle
+169
36.3
-4.61
+1.5
+102
-3.02
U -105
-12.65
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.
Athletics Moneyline:
The Athletics have won seven consecutive road games. (+9.95 Units / 142% ROI). Current odds: +159
New York Mets Team Total UNDER:
The Mets have gone under the team total in eight straight games. (+8.55 Units / 97% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -135
Boston Red Sox 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
Boston has gone under for this bet five consecutive times at home. (+5.30 Units / 79% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -120
Chicago White Sox Run Line:
The White Sox have won this bet in five straight road games. (+5.00 Units / 68% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -114
Colorado Rockies Run Line:
The Rockies have won this bet eight time in their last 10 home games. (+7.15 Units / 65% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -112