Under the increasingly shaky assumption that Aaron Rodgers will return for the 2026 season, the race is on to see who will be the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2027 Week 1 starter between 2025 sixth-round QB Will Howard and 2026 third-round QB Drew Allar.

The Pat McAfee Show’s Mark Kaboly made his prediction via his mailbag on X.

“Even if they take a quarterback in the first round next year (which is quite possible), it would be unlikely that he would be the starter in Week 1,” Kaboly wrote. “I’d have to say Allar right now before he even steps on the field for the rookie minicamp at the end of the week. He’s a higher pick, he has more of the tangibles to his game, and, maybe the most important, handpicked by [Mike] McCarthy.”

Mike McCarthy made it clear when he was hired that he wasn’t interested in throwing the baby out with the bath water. In other words, he wasn’t going to significantly purge the roster in an effort to install his “guys” as many new head coaches often do. But there is an undeniable connection between McCarthy and Allar given that was his guy in the draft.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Gerry Dulac reported that Allar was always the target—even if Carson Beck was still available—and if McCarthy had one main influence on the draft class, it was the selection of the high-upside quarterback out of Penn State. That matters in the NFL, especially when it comes to top-100 draft picks.

On the other hand, McCarthy has consistently talked up Howard and recently stated he’s still “extremely excited” about the Ohio State product after seeing him in action during Phase 1 of the offseason program.

Howard has a one-year head start on Allar, but without any game film as an injury robbed him of a chance to play in the preseason. He still logged close to 100 NFL practices and formed a tight relationship with mentot Aaron Rodgers. That all counts for something.

If Howard doesn’t show a clear and decisive edge over Allar this preseason, we will know his 2027 chances are in trouble. That either means Howard is behind schedule compared to expectations or Allar is ahead of them. Either way, the tie goes to the player with better traits—especially one handpicked by the new head coach with a higher draft investment.