I don’t generally make much out of the preseason coaches poll, seeing as the AP’s version replaces it as the ranking of record once it comes out next Monday. But this year’s caught my attention in a couple of places.
Starting right at the top.
Have we ever had three top-10 matchups in the opening week of the season before? This feels like the best Week 1 ever. And, in my view, it’s better in the 12-team Playoff era because the loser’s season will not be ruined, but they will have a compelling storyline for the year. — Amrabin
I’m reluctant to say “best ever,” but it’s definitely one of the best in my time.
Using the coaches poll, we have No. 1 Texas at No. 2 Ohio State, No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 10 Miami and No. 9 LSU at No. 6 Clemson. If Miami makes the AP’s cut, it would indeed be the first Week 1 with three top-10 AP matchups. And if Ohio State comes in No. 2, then Columbus will be playing host to both Lee Corso’s sendoff AND the first No. 1 vs. No. 2 game where it’s both teams’ season-opener.
(Michigan’s 1989 opener against Notre Dame was a 1 vs. 2 game, but the Irish had already played in the Kickoff Classic.)
My previous standard-bearer was 2016, but looking back now, that was more about volume than it was stakes:
• No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 20 USC (which the Tide won 52-6)
• No. 2 Clemson at Auburn (a 19-13 Clemson win to kick off its national title season)
• No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 15 Houston (Tom Herman’s Houston team beat Bob Stoops’ last OU team 33-23)
• No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 11 Ole Miss (Deondre Francois went off and the Noles won 45-34)
• No. 10 Notre Dame at unranked Texas (the famous “Texas is back” game, which the Longhorns won 50-47)
• No. 18 Georgia vs. No. 22 North Carolina (I have no memory of this game, which Georgia won 33-24)
The only knock on 2025 is that it’s quite a drop-off after the Big Three. The fourth-biggest game is arguably unranked TCU at unranked North Carolina, solely because of it being Bill Belichick’s debut.
I’m going to disagree with Amrabin on one point, though. Those three top-10 games would be more significant were this still the four-team CFP and teams got only one mulligan all season. But they’re still big. Enjoy them before Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti turns them into exhibition games.
If you look at the top-10 teams based on Vegas odds, seven have first-year starting QBs. Since the CFP started in 2014, only three QBs led their team to national titles as freshmen or in their first season starting (Ohio State’s Cardale Jones in 2014, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence in 2018 and Alabama’s Bryce Young in 2021). Three more joined them in the title game (Clemson’s Deshaun Watson in 2015, Alabama’s Jalen Hurts in 2016 and Georgia’s Jake Fromm in 2017), but that’s only six out of 22 who were rookies. Who would you bet on this season, the seasoned veterans (Drew Allar, Cade Klubnik, Garrett Nussmeier) or the young starters? — Ryan
I think you left out a few first-timers. One would be Alabama’s Jake Coker in 2015, though he was a senior by then. Tua Tagovailoa had never started a game for Alabama prior to the 2018 season, even if he did rescue the Tide in the 2017 title game. Mac Jones had started only four prior to 2020, so either he counts or Arch Manning doesn’t. Also, I don’t think Oregon’s Dante Moore, who made five starts for UCLA as a true freshman, should count in this year’s first-timer group.
But I get your larger point.
One of the main reasons I consider this year’s field wide-open is the amount of quarterback turnover. Heck, that 1 vs. 2 game in Columbus is going to feature one QB with two career starts (Manning) and another with zero (Ohio State’s Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz). Notre Dame will likely be starting a green redshirt freshman (CJ Carr) in its opener against Miami, with veteran Carson Beck.
For as much criticism as Allar takes, he’s like a 12-year NFL veteran compared to some of these guys.
But if you look at some of those names above, they generally fall into one of two categories: Five-star phenoms (Lawrence, Young, Tagovailoa) who needed little time to ramp up, or players on teams with dominant defenses that weren’t asked to do too much (Coker, Hurts, Fromm).
Among those top-10 Vegas teams, Texas’s Manning, Ohio State’s Sayin (assuming he wins the job) and Michigan’s Bryce Underwood could potentially join the five-star club, with Georgia’s Gunner Stockton and Notre Dame’s Carr in the “just hand off and let the defense cook” group. I’m not sure how to classify Alabama’s Ty Simpson, who’s a former five-star but is in his fourth year of college.
I would say this: I would not feel comfortable betting on a team starting a true freshman to win the national title. Sorry, Michigan. Ready-made quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence are rare. But a redshirt freshman or a veteran first-time starter doesn’t faze me. There are plenty of precedents for both.
The hard part is predicting which of those guys will be the one. But I feel fairly confident this Manning kid will do OK under the bright lights.
We keep hearing about how conference membership changes result in “traditional” rivalries like Oklahoma-Nebraska, the Backyard Brawl and the Border War getting torpedoed. However, we’ve had out-of-conference rivalry games forever. So, these games CAN happen if the schools want them to. So Stewart, look across the current P4 + Notre Dame and give everyone their one “permanent” out-of-conference rivalry game (even if their opponent isn’t P4). — BD G
What a fun exercise. And hard. There were fewer “no-brainers” (Clemson-South Carolina, Georgia-Georgia Tech, etc.) than I anticipated. And with a school like Oklahoma, do you give it Oklahoma State or Nebraska?
I did make up one arbitrary rule that helped: Notre Dame got six permanent rivals. It would be a shame to pair Michigan with Eastern Michigan if it could be playing the Irish.
Once I got through those, I did some less-obvious but logical pairings, like Cal-UCLA and Texas A&M-Baylor. Even then, I still had 28 P4 schools with no natural P4 rival. Some got an in-state or border-state G5 foe, a couple got FCS teams and when all else failed, I created three P4 vs. P4 “rivalries” out of thin air.
No-brainers: Clemson-South Carolina, Florida State-Florida, Georgia-Georgia Tech, Iowa-Iowa State, Kansas-Missouri, TCU-SMU, Louisville-Kentucky, Oregon-Oregon State, Washington-Washington State
Notre Dame’s six: Michigan, Michigan State, Navy, Purdue, Stanford, USC
The Irish have played each of these schools at least 44 times, including 88 against Purdue and 79 against Michigan State.
You have to pick one: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, Colorado-Nebraska, Texas-Texas Tech, Pitt-West Virginia
Oklahoma may prefer Nebraska, but too bad. Throw the Pokes a bone. Plus, the Huskers still have a good one with Colorado. You could pick any number of Texas schools for the ’Horns, but Tech is the most heated. And Pitt might want Penn State, but I choose to save the Backyard Brawl.
Less obvious: Boston College-UConn, Cal-UCLA, Duke-Maryland, Miami-Rutgers, Northwestern-Duke, Texas A&M-Baylor
If UCLA beats Cal, it doesn’t have to pay the Berkeley Tax that year. Maryland fans would love to get Duke back, even if it’s the wrong sport. Miami-Rutgers is an underrated Big East reunion: A quarter of Miami’s students come from New York/New Jersey. Northwestern-Duke already plays frequently. UNC and Wake no longer play annually. And A&M has played Baylor more times (108) than anyone but Texas.
P4 vs. G5: Alabama-UAB, Arkansas-Arkansas State, Auburn-Troy, BYU-Utah State, Cincinnati-Miami of Ohio, Houston-Rice, Illinois-Northern Illinois, LSU-Tulane, North Carolina-Appalachian State, NC State-East Carolina, Ohio State-Ohio, Ole Miss-Southern Miss, Penn State-Temple, Tennessee-Memphis, UCF-USF, Utah-Air Force, Virginia-James Madison, Virginia Tech-Old Dominion
Cincy-Miami is already an annual rivalry, and BYU-Utah State is close. Getting LSU-Tulane back would be great. And I particularly love Bama-UAB. The Tide will have to be bound and kidnapped to get them to the stadium.
Arranged marriages: Arizona-Northern Arizona, Arizona State-UNLV, Indiana-Syracuse, Minnesota-North Dakota State, Mississippi State-Jackson State, Kansas State-Wisconsin, Wake Forest-Vanderbilt
I really struggled finding anyone for the Arizona schools. Mississippi State, too. But the Vandy-Wake small Southern private school connection makes sense, and I feel like K-State and Wisconsin have a shared blue-collar/overachiever ethos. Indiana and Syracuse, on the other hand, have not met since 1982. With Lee Corso on the sideline.
From your perspective as a college football writer/podcaster, which CFP final four, national championship matchup and champion would be the most interesting to cover and discuss? Realistic scenarios only. — Tyler S.
Is Bill Belichick hoisting a national championship trophy come Jan. 19 not considered realistic … ?
You can never predict which storylines will rise to the top once the season begins, so this is just based on preseason intrigue. And no individual will generate more intrigue than Arch Manning. So Texas reaching the national championship game, after falling in the semifinals the last two years, is the most obvious option.
But you know what else would be fascinating? If Notre Dame, the longtime villain that drew a lot of converts last winter, comes out smoking people and starts to look like the team to beat. The Irish never held that status last season, even in reaching the title game. How will fans feel if they actually do win their national title since 1988?
Or James Franklin finally gets over the hump and gets Penn State to the natty. Or Dabo Swinney proves he’s still got it and earns ring No. 3 at Clemson. Or Bryce Underwood becomes an all-time savior for Michigan. Or DJ Lagway helps Billy Napier pull off the ultimate redemption at Florida.
I’ll go with Texas vs. Notre Dame for the ideal matchup. No preference who wins.
Meanwhile, I’d entertain any number of possibilities for the semis, the more improbable the better. So how about these two: LaNorris Sellers leads perpetual afterthought South Carolina to the promised land, and Lincoln Riley completely flips the script at USC.
Texas-USC in the Fiesta Bowl.
Notre Dame-South Carolina in the Peach Bowl.
Winners advance to Miami.
What is your opinion on neutral-site nonconference games? Should there be more or less of them? — Matthew C.
Honestly, unless it’s an established tradition like Oklahoma-Texas, Florida-Georgia or Army-Navy, I’d prefer no neutral-site regular season games at all. We have all these college football cathedrals that get used seven or eight times the entire year, why are we sacrificing one of those to play a Tennessee-Syracuse game at something called the Aflac Kickoff Game?
(I know the answer. Money.)
Let’s say you are building a Big 12 football-themed amusement park. Which teams do you assign to the following rides: super scary roller coaster; boring Ferris wheel that looks cool but goes nowhere; log flume where it’s fun for a while but you get wet at the end; haunted house that seems intimidating but is just ridiculous; and bumper cars that are fun and chaotic but mostly leave you with a bad back. — Andrew P.
At some point this summer, readers started bombarding me with lighthearted but thought-provoking questions like this one and the rivalry one before it. The trend has been a refreshing antidote to several months of, “How soon is college football going to die its inevitable fiery death?”
Scary roller-coaster: Oklahoma State. Generations of kids have grown up on the Mike Gundy experience. One moment you come within inches of winning the Big 12 title, the next you’re 7-6. One moment you lose 33-7 to South Alabama, the next you’re 10-4. Then you see your life flash in front of you as you abruptly descend to 0-9 in the Big 12.
Boring Ferris wheel: Arizona. Noah Fifita and the Wildcats sure looked cool for that one season in 2023, but the ride got stuck as soon as Jedd Fisch left and we’re still waiting for the bored teenager out front to put down his phone and come fix it.
Log flume: Colorado. I feel like this description perfectly fits the 2024 Buffs, one of the most captivating teams in the country with Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, right up until they got waxed by BYU in the bowl game. I’ll just assume it’s much the same ride in 2025.
Haunted house: Texas Tech. Who knows what to expect any time you turn the corner of this spectacle, which recently got a $55 million facelift. Is that 2019 LSU staring back at you, or 2024 Florida State? Are all those seven-figure transfers going to haunt your dreams or crack you up when they fail to pan out? All I know is the whole thing will look ridiculous if it ends with the Red Raiders going 8-4.
Bumper cars: Kansas. The Jayhawks’ resurgence under Lance Leipold has been undeniably fun to watch, but continually running into that program’s perpetual ceiling can leave you with a bruised head. Poor Jalon Daniels is the one with the bad back.
So obviously, Ohio State last year, “fourth in the Big Ten, first in the nation!” is a totally illegitimate and mediocre champion a la the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals or 2011 New York Giants that benefited from a very forgiving playoff format. What is the worst possible team and record that could win a national title? The worst possible people are OSU fans so that’s already answered … football is almost back! — Kyle L.
Is this Brady Hoke’s burner account?
Calling that Ohio State team mediocre is … something. All the Buckeyes had to do in that “forgiving” playoff format was beat teams that finished ranked No. 2 (Notre Dame), No. 3 (Oregon), No. 4 (Texas) and No. 9 (Tennessee). Plus, they beat No. 5 (Penn State) and No. 10 (Indiana) earlier in the season. I’m old enough to remember when all you had to do to win the BCS championship was win one postseason game.
And then they had 14 players drafted, one short of the all-time record.
They did have one indisputably bad loss to an actual mediocre team, Michigan. That’s why the 2025 Buckeyes did not make my ranking of the 25 best teams of this century. Still, I’d hardly put a 10-2 regular season in the same boat as 9-7 in the NFL (the 2011 Giants) or 83-78 in MLB (the 2006 Cardinals).
I’m sure we will see a 10-3 or 9-3 team make the 12-team Playoff (for however long that lasts). Alabama almost made it last season, with one win over a final top-10 team (No. 6 Georgia) and two losses to 6-6 teams (Vanderbilt and Oklahoma). Now that’s mediocre. But would we still view the Tide that way if they’d gotten in and then run through the same four-team slate Ohio State did?
Last year was the first season of an entirely new format, in which it wasn’t a 13-0 or 12-1 team that won the thing. We’re all going to need to recalibrate our expectations of what a national champ looks like going forward. More berths mean more margin for error, which means more teams like 2024 Ohio State that always had the talent but laid at least one egg during the regular season.
Remember, the other team that played for the title last season, Notre Dame, lost at home to NIU. And the Irish weren’t mediocre either.
Stew — OK, so I think you and many of your colleagues have decided the Michigan (scandal) is a mere curiosity now and Buckeye fans should move on, etc. (Sometimes I agree!) But let’s imagine we live in a world where absolutely nothing is known about the story and then someone comes to you with a treasure trove of everything we now know and have seen to date. Would you really just think “no big deal” and not pursue it? — Josh
Is this Ryan Day’s burner account?
I assure you there has been no meeting of my colleagues and me where we took a vote and agreed that the Michigan/Connor Stalions scandal was “no big deal.” I’m someone who argued at the time that the Wolverines should be ineligible for that year’s Big Ten championship game.
It’s just that it’s been almost two years, there has been little new information to report, and it’s unclear when sanctions will be announced.
So, yes, I’ve kind of moved on with my life. Took a couple of vacations. Saw the new “Naked Gun” movie. (It was great.)
Will circle back to Michigan when something actually happens.
(Top photo: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)