NASCAR is in wine country this weekend, as Sonoma Raceway hosts the Toyota/Save Mart 350 and the third round of the inaugural In-Season Challenge.

As we do every week, we’re bringing our NASCAR questions to the experts: Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi. We’re getting the scoop on the latest charter drama involving Michael Jordan’s 23XI Racing, predictions for the In-Season Challenge and whether anyone can beat Shane van Gisbergen on a road course these days.

Take it away, guys!

How to watch the NASCAR Cup Series at Sonoma
Race: Toyota/Save Mart 350, Challenge Round 3
Location: Sonoma Raceway
Time: Sunday, July 13, 3:30 p.m. ET
Watch: TNT
NASCAR Cup Series at Sonoma Q&A

Round 2 of the Challenge at Chicago was Round 2 of the upset circus! Heading into the third round at Sonoma, who is in the best spot of the remaining drivers? Which matchups do you like the most? Let’s get your updated picks!

Jeff: Hey, my bracket challenge winner (Tyler Reddick) is still alive in this thing. And I correctly called John Hunter Nemechek in the Elite Eight. But aside from that, my bracket has been a disaster like most others. Anyway, the matchups are largely unexciting given most of the drivers have no history or rivalry together (Ryan Preece vs. Tyler Reddick? Ty Dillon and Alex Bowman?). But there is a fun one: Legacy Motor Club teammates Erik Jones and Nemechek. I’ve got Bowman over Dillon and Nemechek over Jones, then Reddick over Preece and Ty Gibbs over Zane Smith. Next week at Dover, it’s Bowman over Nemechek and Reddick over Gibbs, setting up a Bowman/Reddick final at Indianapolis (where Reddick wins, as I had all along. Ha!).

Jordan: Of the eight matchups last week, I correctly picked six winners (Bowman, Nemechek, Jones, Preece, Reddick and Gibbs). So, considering how tumultuous this tournament has been, I’m going to go ahead and pat myself on the back. But this week is going to be a challenging one as several of the drivers left don’t have a strong record at Sonoma. Here are my picks: Dillon continues his Cinderella, Florida Gulf Coast-esque run by knocking out the heavily favored Bowman; Nemechek over Jones; Reddick over Preece and Gibbs over Smith.

Let’s talk about the Chicago race winner, Shane van Gisbergen (SVG). I asked a few weeks ago about the seeming proliferation of road or street courses on the NASCAR schedule (which you can tell me if that’s actually an outlier historically). If this seeming trend continues, what do teams and/or drivers need to do to get more people dominant on this style of course? Surely they’re not just going to let SVG keep running roughshod over the field!

Jeff: Just like it’s tough for SVG to catch up with the rest of the field on ovals, it’s also tough for the other drivers to catch up to him on road courses. He’s a three-time champion in Australia’s Supercars series and won 80 races there — all on non-ovals (they only race road and street courses) and while driving a car that is a distant cousin of the Cup Series’ Next Gen car. Even if they’re different enough, they’re still more similar to NASCAR than open-wheel cars, which is why I think we’ve seen SVG have so much success right away. He simply has done this longer and better than anyone else he’s competing against, and it shows. I don’t know how you easily overcome that — but the fastest car doesn’t always win these races, either.

Jordan: SVG is on an incredible run right now, and while he certainly could continue to run roughshod over the field on the road courses, it’s also just as likely that the field catches up to him. Let’s remember that not too long ago, Chase Elliott was winning with great frequency on road courses, and NASCAR switched to a new car; the field caught up, and Elliott hasn’t won on a road course since July 2021. And let’s also keep in mind that van Gisbergen’s two wins this year, Mexico City and Chicago, are on two tracks where his competition has little experience, which gives him a further advantage. But on road courses like Circuit of the Americas and Watkins Glen, where the field has plenty of laps, van Gisbergen was anything but infallible. This is a long way of saying that, yes, van Gisbergen is the driver to beat anytime NASCAR visits a road course, but it is by no means any sort of guarantee he wins.

Jeff wrote a really helpful explainer on the situation with 23XI and Front Row facing potential loss of their charters — the biggest immediate impact is that Tyler Reddick could become a free agent?! In your article, you said, “Whether you think it sounds unrealistic or not…” But do YOU think this sounds realistic or not? Who would be most likely to snap him up in that hypothetical?

Jeff: While a lot of things would have to happen, you certainly can’t outright dismiss it, and I would bet a couple of teams are sniffing around already. Aside from angering Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan, what’s the risk in trying to lure Reddick away? You might not get this good of a shot at a top free agent for years. But teams would have to clear room for him, which is also a risk — if you try to get Reddick but fail, and word gets around to your driver that you were trying to hire someone else for his ride? Awkward. Maybe it’s worth it, though, if a team is underperforming. As I mentioned in that piece linked above, I could see Spire Motorsports taking a swing with Justin Haley on a very hot seat.

Jordan: Over the past several weeks, I’ve spoken to a multitude of team decision-makers about this exact scenario, and every single one of them noted how they were keeping a close eye on Reddick’s status, with several even saying they would pursue signing him should the opportunity present itself. Well, that opportunity may soon be on the horizon and if so, expect teams to go all-in on signing the talented driver who nearly won the championship a year ago.

Back to racing: Who do you like to win at Sonoma? Who’s getting that wine?

Jeff: I said Ty Gibbs would win Chicago after his strong Mexico City performance, but he came up one spot short. Gibbs has now hung with SVG in the last two road course races and looks terrific on those types of tracks. I’ll stick with him to get his first career victory this weekend and pull the upset on SVG (although it’s not THAT much of an upset since he has the fifth-best odds).

Jordan: Kyle Larson is due for one of those races where he leads the most laps, sweeps the stage and wins going away. And Sonoma is a good place for this to occur. He’s won two of the past four races, and his average starting position in 10 Sonoma starts is 3.8 — read that again, 3.8. Larson wins on Sunday, scoring what would be a series-best fourth win of 2025.

Do you have a long shot you like?

Jeff: Wow, I think the oddsmakers are really putting themselves at risk for a big payout with Chase Briscoe at +4000. Briscoe has been the third-fastest car on road courses this season, according to Auto Racing Analytics, and he also had the third-fastest car at Chicago behind SVG and Michael McDowell. I don’t think it’s far-fetched at all to think Briscoe could win at a place where his crew chief, James Small, and the No. 19 won just two years ago.

Jordan: Ross Chastain has the second-best average (12.4), trailing only Chase Elliott (11.1), and has four top-10 finishes in five career Sonoma starts. And with Chastain listed at +3000 on some boards, he definitely qualifies as a great sleeper pick this weekend.

Race winner odds for NASCAR’s Toyota/Save Mart 350

Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Shane van Gisbergen: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)