Neil Parker
• Betting Analyst
16+ years betting experience
Updated:
May 15, 2026 , 10:00 PM ET
• 4 min read
Alex Smalley is set to take a run at the Wanamaker Trophy.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Alex Smalley during Round 2 of the 2026 PGA Championship.
Aronimink Golf Club has shown its teeth through the first two rounds of the 2026 PGA Championship, and this major is wide open heading into the weekend.
While Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Young remain atop the PGA Championship odds, I’m looking at three other markets, and Alex Smalley headlines my Round 3 golf picks for Saturday, May 16.
Best PGA Championship Round 3 predictions
Golfer
Pick
Alex Smalley
Top 10: Yes
48¢
+101
Joaquin Niemann
Top 40: Yes
54¢
-126
Ludvig Aberg
Beats Jon Rahm
54¢
-126
Alex Smalley Top 10: Yes (+101/48¢)
Don’t think the moment is too big for Alex Smalley.
He entered the week with five consecutive Top 25 finishes, gaining true strokes across the board and ranking 21st in adjusted scoring average on the PGA Tour this season.
While there’s definitely potential for Smalley’s work on the greens to cool considering he paces the field in true strokes gained putting, Smalley’s made 10 birdies and hit 24 of 36 greens in regulation through the first two rounds.
Joaquin Niemann Top 40: Yes (-126/54¢)
Currently sitting T44 heading into the weekend, Joaquin Niemann ranks 13th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 15th on approach, so he just needs a few more putts to fall this weekend to flirt with a Top 20 finish.
Niemann is definitely a streaky putter, but the Chilean’s ball-striking can do the heavy lifting to propel him up the leaderboard. He entered the event ranked 16th in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his previous six events.
Ludvig Aberg beats Jon Rahm (-126/54¢)
Jon Rahm can’t find the fairway, and he was bailed out in Round 1 by holing out for eagle on the second hole and chipping in for birdie on the eighth.
Rahm has only hit 11 of 28 fairways through two rounds and is 87th in true strokes gained putting. It’s not a recipe for success.
Considering Ludvig Aberg ranks fifth in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach, along with holding a stroke lead over Rahm, I like Aberg pulling further away over the next two rounds.
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