MLB Expert Picks & Baseball Predictions May 25

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We’re celebrating Memorial Day with baseball all day — and a full buffet of MLB picks, based on prices from Polymarket.

See why our MLB experts are backing both of Chicago‘s teams to win today, along with an Under play in San Diego.

UPDATE: Added Jon Metler’s best bet for CHC/PIT.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick

Odds

Josh Inglis: CWS ML

+100

Joe Osborne: PHI/SD u7.5

-108

Jon Metler: CHC ML

-113

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

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Josh Inglis’ expert pick: White Sox moneyline

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

Why are the Twins road favorites today with Zebby Matthews on the mound? His run of good fortune is due to snap with a .227 BABIP while stranding 93% of his runners. He was getting tagged in Triple-A before the call-up and doesn’t profile as a good pitcher. He also threw 100 pitches in his last outing and hands things over to a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA on the season and could be without Taylor Rogers after back-to-back appearances. Meanwhile, Anthony Kay is quietly putting together a strong season with two or fewer earned runs allowed in eight of his 10 starts. The Chicago White Sox still feel undervalued by the market, and THE BAT has this fair price sitting at -120.

Joe Osborne’s expert pick: Phillies/Padres Under 7.5

Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket

Jesus Luzardo has found his rhythm again, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and faces a San Diego Padres lineup that has struggled badly against left-handed pitching. Randy Vasquez has also been excellent with a 2.96 ERA, while the Philadelphia Phillies offense has been flat-out bad vs. righties… and on the road. The trends support the Under as well, with the Phillies cashing it in seven of their last eight games and San Diego doing the same in 10 of its last 12 at home. It also helps that the Padres’ bullpen has been one of baseball’s sharper relief units lately and is well equipped to protect a low total.

Jon Metler’s expert pick: Cubs moneyline

Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket

Ben Brown has looked excellent for the Chicago Cubs since moving into the starting rotation. While it’s still a small sample, the early results have been impressive, with an 11.08 K/9 and a 2.33 xERA through his first three starts. The bottom of Pittsburgh’s order, particularly spots six through nine, could feature several right-handed hitters, which plays directly into Brown’s strengths: His knuckle curve should be especially effective in those matchups, consistently breaking away from right-handed bats and generating weak contact or swings and misses. That should allow Brown to work through the lower half of the lineup efficiently, keep his pitch count under control, and pitch deeper into the game. I price the Cubs closer to 60-cent (-150) favorites in this spot.

More MLB best bets for today

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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