The odds are increasing that a rare Super El Niño event will form this year, bringing potentially warm and dry conditions to much of the Northeast, as Connecticut is already dealing with moderate drought conditions and a high risk for wildfires.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of the state is listed in abnormally dry conditions, with Fairfield and New London counties listed as being in a moderate drought. An estimated 1,119,243 residents are living under the moderate drought as of May 26, up 6.5% from the previous week, according to officials.
Last month, the state recorded the 23rd driest April on record going back to 1895. There was just 2.44 inches of rainfall in total last month, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Northeast frequently experiences “flash” droughts — the rapid onset of intense dry periods that can follow a period of normal to above normal precipitation. These flash droughts may last only two to six months but can have devastating impacts, according to NOAA.
“These flash droughts are very common over the last several years in the Northeast,” said Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather. “We saw one a couple of years ago that came on in the late summer and translated into the fall, which resulted in some pretty bad wildfires. So we do see these periods of drought usually between periods of normal or above normal precipitation.”
According to weather experts, under prolonged moderate drought conditions lasting more than one month, honey production declines, irrigation use increases, hay and grain yields are lower than normal, trees and fish are stressed and voluntary water conservation is usually requested.
While Connecticut is now under moderate drought conditions, experts warn that a rare El Niño year could prolong dry conditions later into the year, increasing chances for wildfires, crop loss and water conservation.
AccuWeather experts say El Niño is expected to develop around the start of summer or late June in the Pacific Ocean and could reach Super El Niño status as early as October or November.
El Niño is a periodic warming of water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect global weather patterns for months, according to Tyler Roys, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather. There have been 27 El Niños since 1950, with one happening on average every three to four years. The last one, a mild El Niño, happened from the summer of 2023 into early spring 2024.
The emerging El Niño will be the third in the past 10 years and can be traced back to the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. Super El Niños are much more rare, with the last one occurring in the 2015-16 season.
“In the United States, an El Niño pattern typically brings more rain to the Midwest and parts of the West during the summer,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill. “It will likely produce extended periods of dry weather from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast but mixed in will be some heavy pockets of rain.”
A hot summer is predicted across most of the United States this summer, according to AccuWeather. Temperatures could potentially shatter records as almost no areas in the U.S. are expected to have temperatures below the historical average for the season. The widespread heat will drive up energy demand and could lead to higher electric bills, according to the weather agency.
AccuWeather is predicting the number of 90-degree days to be near or above the historical average in Boston, Chicago, New York City and Philadelphia.
Along with heat, meteorologists are predicting periods of high humidity and high dew points, which could lead to thunderstorms and periods of intense rainfall. Low dew points indicate dryer air, significantly increasing wildfire risk by drying out vegetation and allowing fuels to ignite easily. Dew points below 30 degrees Fahrenheit indicate high fire danger. Low dew points, combined with high temperatures and wind, can cause rapid fire spread. If humidity persists with higher dew points, that will lessen the risk of wildfires.
While natural weather conditions can cause brush fires, the majority of wildfires in Connecticut are human-caused by improper burning of debris, arson, campfires, discarded wood ashes, and equipment, according to the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection.
Stephen Underwood can be reached at sunderwood@courant.com.