NEW YORK — The Guardians’ bullpen has concocted the proper formula, crunched the numbers and observed enough trials to create a foolproof advanced metric.
It’s called xDAWG.
It carries the spirit of other expected statistics (represented by the X) that forecast a player’s performance based on a variety of inputs. This new metric measures whether a player possesses the grit and fearlessness required to deliver in a pressure-packed, high-stakes moment.
Surprisingly, it’s a rookie, Cleveland’s relievers calculated, who sits atop the xDAWG leaderboard. It’s a rookie with a 2.21 ERA. It’s a rookie who, for a few starts, has admitted to lacking his top-level stuff, yet has nonetheless continued to quiet opposing bats.
Parker Messick is no ordinary rookie, though. Neither is Chase DeLauter or Travis Bazzana. The three might lack in experience, but they have delivered a steady dose of plate discipline, timely hitting and, well, xDAWG.
The Guardians are once again in first place, charging toward a third consecutive AL Central title, and a prevailing reason is the trio of rookies cosplaying as polished veterans.
It spurred reliever Erik Sabrowski to raise a pertinent question: “Can we just give the Rookie of the Year (award) to a team?”
“We’re all going through a lot of early learning as rookies,” Bazzana said. “To look on the bus at the guy next to you and be like, ‘We’re in the same boat and we’re going to be doing this together for a while,’ it’s a good feeling.”
The Guardians trusted DeLauter to debut in a playoff elimination game at a position he hadn’t patrolled in a year and after three months of being sidelined by injury. Everything after that experience, DeLauter said about his whirlwind experience last October, should feel simple, such as starting for the Guardians on Opening Day, or batting in front of and then directly behind José Ramírez.
DeLauter embarked on a historic home run binge the first week of the season, carrying the lineup through a daunting opening trip to Seattle and Los Angeles. He became the second player in major-league history with four homers in his first three regular-season games. Since then, he’s solidified himself as a middle-of-the-order threat.
“I’ve seen him do some pretty incredible things. … He’s going to be great for a long time,” Bazzana said. “Chase is one of the most skilled and athletic and powerful baseball players I’ve ever seen.”
As with DeLauter, the Guardians didn’t wait long to saddle Bazzana with extra responsibility. They yanked Steven Kwan out of the leadoff spot on May 16. Manager Stephen Vogt insisted he preferred Bazzana lurking in the No. 5 to No. 7 spot in the lineup, but one week later, Bazzana was leading off, a better fit for his on-base and stolen-base skills.
Bazzana started his big-league career with a 0-for-12 spell, but in the month since, he has logged a .327/.398/.505 slash line.
“Whether he’s swinging it hot or not, you can’t tell,” DeLauter said. “He has competitive at-bats, works the box, doesn’t swing at balls, hits the strikes hard. What more can you ask for?”
Well, that sounds a lot like a description of DeLauter’s at-bats, too.
These aren’t typical rookies chasing pitches and swinging their shoulders out of their sockets because they’re desperate to prove they should stick. They’re patient and poised and setting the tone for the rest of Cleveland’s lineup.
The Guardians loaded the bases in the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, but Patrick Bailey and Brayan Rocchio struck out, leaving Bazzana to tack on insurance runs. He promptly struck a three-run double to right field to take his veteran teammates off the hook.
“They’re confident. They know they belong in the big leagues,” Vogt said. “When you get here, you’re happy, and then you have to figure out how to stay and then it clicks. ‘I know I’m a big leaguer.’ From Day 1, both Travis and Chase, when they walked through the doors, they knew they’re big leaguers. And they’re playing like it.”
There’s one pitcher DeLauter hasn’t solved, though: Messick. DeLauter can’t shake the 2022 season opener, when Florida State southpaw Messick struck out James Madison outfielder DeLauter in three straight at-bats.
“A hat trick,” DeLauter said.
DeLauter said it’s a blend of aggression and deception that makes Messick a pain to face. Messick works fast, at one of the quickest tempos in the league. The hitter can’t take a breath. Fans in the stands have to wait until the third out before they can sip their beer.
“He just wants to get the ball and go. I love that,” Bazzana said. “As a hitter, you can lose at-bats because of it. It can speed you up.”
Messick didn’t ease into his start Sunday against the Red Sox. When the pitch clock still displayed nine or 10 seconds, he was coiling into his windup. The deception comes when his delivery reaches a crescendo. Sabrowski said that’s when Messick resembles a “plus sign,” with his glove stretching toward the sky, his pitching arm pushing toward the dirt and his body contorted somewhere in the middle.
Messick ranks second in the AL in ERA. His changeup has one of the league’s highest whiff rates. And, of course, his xDAWG is off the charts.
“He has unbelievable command,” Sabrowski said. “He doesn’t throw 100 (mph). He doesn’t have a (Jacob) Misiorowski curveball. But everything he throws is competitive and every pitch has a purpose. If one gets away, it looks like he uses that to set up the next one. He has a grasp for pitching beyond his years.”
Everywhere Rhys Hoskins looks, there’s a rookie fueling the Guardians’ first-place efforts. The 33-year-old appreciates DeLauter’s plate discipline and how Bazzana treasures “the process of it all.” Hoskins said he’s “old here, and that’s OK,” because he’s not babysitting. He’s marveling.
“I have just as much to learn from them as they do from me,” he said. “These guys have found ways to be successful while navigating how to be a big-leaguer and all else that comes with that.”
It has the Guardians savoring the present while dreaming of what could lie ahead.
“It’s tough to let someone ease into their time here when you’re trying to be a first-place team,” Sabrowski said. “They’ve been assigned a challenge and they’re running with it.”