Tom Oldfield
• Betting Analyst
22+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jun 3, 2026 , 02:26 PM ET
• 4 min read
It’s a basement battle tonight at Climate Pledge Arena, but the Phoenix Mercury’s experience stands out as a trump card.
EXPERT PICK – SPREAD
Phoenix -6.5 (-115)
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper of the Phoenix Mercury WNBA
It’s been a rough few weeks for the Phoenix Mercury, but there’s a gift from the schedule-makers tonight as they travel to face the depleted Seattle Storm.
Phoenix has lost six in a row, but Seattle is on a losing skid of its own while missing key contributors, so my Mercury vs Storm predictions favor the veteran visitors at Climate Pledge Arena.
Get the lowdown on this June 3 Commissioner’s Cup clash with my free WNBA picks.
Mercury vs Storm prediction
Mercury vs Storm best bet: Mercury -6.5 (-115)
The Phoenix Mercury have taken some hits against elite opposition in a testing opening month, but the experience of Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper provides a real edge here against the Seattle Storm.
A youthful Storm squad will again be without Dominique Malonga and Ezi Magbegor, and the hosts have dropped their last three games by a combined 58 points.
That makes this a nice bounce-back spot for the Mercury, especially as Seattle was 5-17 ATS at home last season. It may not be pretty, but I’ll lay the points with Phoenix – though I wouldn’t take it past -7.5.
COVERS Intel: In what’s looking like a rebuilding year, the Storm are averaging the second-fewest PPG in the WNBA this season (76.4) – and they’re rock bottom in FG%.
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Mercury vs Storm same-game parlay
It’s time for Phoenix’s top guns to drag their team off the mat, and my SGP expects Copper and Thomas to deliver for the visitors to quieten some of the noise around their slow start to 2026.
With Copper, the Mercury’s leading scorer, it’s a volume play – she’s jacked up 16+ shots in eight of her 10 outings this season and reached the 20-point mark three times in May. The shooting percentages have been ugly, but she’ll meet less resistance on her drives tonight.
Thomas’ rebounding numbers are falling short of the highs of recent years, but she should feast against Seattle’s depleted frontcourt and is an obvious beneficiary of the hosts’ poor shooting. As long as this game is close, expect Thomas to log 35+ minutes to nudge Phoenix towards a much-needed win.
Mercury vs Storm SGP
Mercury moneyline
Kahleah Copper Over 19.5 points
Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 rebounds
Tom Oldfield’s 2026 Transparency Record
Best bet: 6-5, +1.60 units
SGP: 2-9, -1.75 units
Mercury vs Storm odds
Spread: Mercury -6.5 | Storm +6.5
Moneyline: Mercury -260 | Storm +210
Over/Under: Over 161.0 | Under 161.0
Mercury vs Storm trend
The Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these teams. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Storm
Location
Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
Date
Wednesday, June 3, 2026
Tip-off
10:00 p.m. ET
TV
KPHE, KUNS
Mercury vs Storm latest injuries
Mercury: Sammi Whitcomb (Out).
Storm: Dominique Malonga (Out), Ezi Magbegor (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tom Oldfield’s sports writing journey over the past 20 years has taken him from the Premier League and Champions League to the NFL, NBA, WNBA and MLB, with a wide range of articles and betting previews. Tom has worked closely with London’s Sportsbeat sports news agency as well as (thrillingly!) covering the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 NBA championship run, and he has appeared on BBC World Service and The Back Page podcast.
A graduate of the University of Nottingham in the UK, he is the author of biographies on Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Nadal, Gary Neville and Cesc Fabregas, and he co-authors a long-running series of children’s soccer books with his brother, Matt.
As a regular bettor across the top sports leagues, particularly with FanDuel and bet365, he is well versed on all the major markets and the next big game is rarely far from his thoughts. The best betting advice he has received is to monitor multiple sportsbooks to grab the best possible value.
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