The Seattle Mariners are struggling offensively. Yes, their team wRC+ is around league-average. Yes, they are finally running nearly their entire full healthy lineup out for the first time all season (save Bringo Dingo, may your groin heal in peace). But Seattle entered Saturday 25th in MLB in runs per game at 4.02, a 651 run pace. T-Mobile Park always will curtail Seattle a bit, but a season ago they concluded at 4.75 runs per game, 10th in MLB and a 766 run season. There are several culprits, but one of the most glaring is one you don’t have to wait around to see.

Josh Naylor, 329 PAs, 138 swings, .245 wOBA (147th)

J.P. Crawford, 271 PAs, 72 swings, .244 wOBA (148th)

Julio Rodríguez, 356 PAs, 116 swings, .224 wOBA (151st)

League-average for 2026 is a .389 wOBA on first pitch swings, well ahead of the .317 league-average wOBA overall. Obviously, you can’t strike out on a first pitch swing, but it’s a common strategy for hitters to maximize their outcomes. Kyle Schwarber is notorious for this, swinging 104 times out of 343 opportunities, with a staggering .759 wOBA this year. Nick Kurtz, Aaron Judge, Byron Buxton, as well as numerous other less-notable over-performers are also among the most successful ambush hitters. Quelle surprise, as a team overall, the M’s are near the cellar as well, with a .348 wOBA (28th) on 1,027 swings in 3,105 PAs. Some M’s are obviously lifting the numbers a bit, like Arozarena and his .443 wOBA (62nd) in 318 PAs and 106 swings. But it’s is a huge hole from three of the most present and frequent hitters in Seattle’s lineup.

This is not some longstanding issue, either. A year ago, all three players were right there with Arozarena as above-average ambushers. Per Baseball Savant, the cliff of poor production has been precipitous thus far this year.

Not a single barrel for Julio on first pitches, and a 31.9% hard hit rate for Naylor, on pitches ostensibly meant to be receiving a hitter-friendly hack. If we’re wondering where the missing power has been for Naylor this year, ta da!

Moreover, this issue has been prolific. Naylor is tied for 14th-most swings on first pitches, while Julio is 45th. Crawford’s numbers are poor, but his first pitch swings not as frequent by rate (26.6%) as Naylor (41.9% of first pitches) or even Rodríguez (32.6%). And as we can see from their 2025 numbers, it’s not just average performance they’re losing out on. First pitches were where all three players generated MUCH of their offensive production a year ago. All three hit the ball harder, drove in runs and generated scoring opportunities, and blew open big innings with this aggression.

There’s still time to turn things around, and not a crystal-clear explanation as to why these numbers have sunk so prodigiously. But at least for the next few weeks, it might be nice to see some of Seattle’s key hitters take a pitch.