From the outside looking in, what the Minnesota Twins should do come Aug. 3 is a slam dunk, involving the end of All-Star pitcher Joe Ryan’s tenure in the Twin Cities.
Even though the Twins are currently hanging around the edge of relevance, the prevailing thought is that the club should continue to offload players and rebuild the organization by cashing in on talented assets like Ryan and others.
But an it’s-already-broken-don’t-fix-it mentality wouldn’t fit as easily as it seems.
As the dwindling attendance figures indicate, this franchise is already feeling the effects of a series of missteps across the previous three years. The fanbase is already enraged with ownership after payroll was slashed following the 2023 playoff run, and when no players were acquired at the 2024 deadline in spite of a deficient payroll. Oh, and the team participated in perhaps the largest fire sale ever last year, trading 10 major-leaguers for prospects.
Recognizing the franchise’s issues, new Twins control partner Tom Pohlad has insisted since he took over in mid-December that the club would be competitive this season, with him intending to repair trust issues with players in the clubhouse as well as providing fans with the team they deserve.
To date, those promises haven’t been fulfilled. But the deadline — if the Twins are still relevant in a month — represents Pohlad’s first chance to make his words ring true. If the Twins managed to add to an entertaining-yet-flawed club and give an offense that’s been hitting all season a chance to compete the rest of the way, it would only be the first step of many needed to repair the relationship.
Record: 42-46
Record this time last season: 41-46
Standing: 3rd in AL Central
Playoff odds: 27.8 percent (FanGraphs), 19.3 percent (Baseball Reference)
If the season ended today: Eliminated from playoff contention
Biggest series between now and the deadline: All of them. The Twins can’t afford to slip up and lose ground, even if the rest of the league continues to play blah baseball beyond the top teams. Last year, the Twins lost multiple winnable series ahead of the deadline and sealed their fate. A repeat must be avoided at all costs.
Current needs: With Mick Abel starting his elbow recovery over and Connor Prielipp closing in on a presumptive innings limit, the Twins must add a starting pitcher if they intend to stick around.
There’s a good foundation in place in the rotation with Ryan, Taj Bradley and what Bailey Ober should offer when he’s back. Zebby Matthews looks like he could stay. But the Twins can’t continue to roll out a bullpen day or ask too much of Prielipp and therefore need at least one starter.
The bullpen needs even more than the rotation, especially after losing Anthony Banda to injury this past week.
Yoendrys Gómez has been a find. Andrew Morris looks like a keeper. But Morris is still adapting to relief life, which likely means he’ll hit a wall sooner or later. And who knows if Gómez can keep this up.
The Twins would appear to need at least two more relievers to give Derek Shelton options to compete.
History says: The Twins rarely add. They did in 2022 when they acquired Tyler Mahle, Jorge López and Michael Fulmer, but those acquisitions didn’t go well.
The Twins added Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson in 2019, Romo outperforming the mid-level price they paid.
But the Twins did nothing in 2023 and did the same, in disappointing fashion, in 2024. Last year’s sell-off set the market in historic fashion.
But history shouldn’t matter here if Pohlad means what he says. If he wants to give fans excitement and his players more resources, nothing the Twins have previously done matters.
What will determine what they do: If all goes to hell over the next month, the Twins would potentially sell. With Banda out, the Twins are running on bare bones in the bullpen and that could cost them some winnable games. If enough of those losses pile up and the Twins drop back in a very mid AL, that would likely force their hands.
But if they’re able to stick around as they have, with a productive offense and solid rotation doing the bulk of the lifting, the Twins might just do the unthinkable and add on.
What they should do: Conventional wisdom says the Twins should sell. Ryan would bring an absurdly good return. Because he’s a potential impact catcher, Jeffers is likely to fetch more than a typical return for a rental.
Rather than making costly adds to compete in a watered-down AL, various other pieces could easily be peddled, setting the Twins up with even more young talent for the future.
But it’s hard to see the Twins doing this and further alienating the fan base, not to mention how it likely would play inside the clubhouse. If the Twins want to keep Buxton around the rest of his career, a sell-off is a very unlikely outcome.