Tom Oldfield
• Betting Analyst
22+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 9, 2026 , 03:58 PM ET
• 4 min read
With A’ja Wilson on the verge of returning, the Las Vegas Aces look to bounce back and flip the script as they visit the Portland Fire tonight.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray (12) reacts to scoring.
The last 10 days served as a stark reminder of A’ja Wilson’s importance to the Aces, with Las Vegas stumbling to a 1-2 record in her absence.
With the reigning MVP potentially returning to action tonight at the Moda Center, Becky Hammon’s squad is listed as a steep -380 favorite against the Portland Fire.
My top Aces vs. Fire predictions back Las Vegas to find their rhythm and deliver a decisive bounce-back win.
Read on for my free WNBA picks and betting tips for this July 9 battle.
UPDATE: Added Carla Leite prop!
Aces vs Fire prediction
Aces vs Fire best bet: Aces -8.5 (-110)
For the Las Vegas Aces, a 15-7 start has been fueled by a 9-3 mark on the road, including a 105-89 victory at the Portland Fire last month.
I’m banking on a similar script in this rematch, with A’ja Wilson on the comeback trail after an ankle injury and Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young ready to slide into supporting roles.
The Aces have won 10 of the last 12 contests where Wilson has featured, while the Fire had dropped three in a row before Saturday’s win in Seattle.
I’d still lay the points if the line crept up to 9.5.
COVERS INTEL: The Aces are 7-4 ATS on the road this year, and they’re averaging 91.8 PPG on their travels – the third-best mark in the league.
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Aces vs Fire same-game parlay
I see the Aces shaking off a tricky stretch and ripping through a Fire defense that’s giving up 91.3 PPG, tied for second-most in the WNBA.
Look for Las Vegas’ balanced offense to tip the scales. Gray knocked down nine 3-pointers in Portland in June on the way to 29 points, and she’s ended up with 15+ points in three of her past seven outings.
Young is shooting a steady 36% from downtown this season, and she’s nailed the Over on 1.5 3-pointers in five of her past eight games. Plus, the Aces shot 14-for-28 on triples in the teams’ prior meeting.
Aces vs Fire SGP (+225)
Aces moneyline
Chelsea Gray Over 13.5 points
Jackie Young Over 1.5 3-pointers
Aces vs Fire player prop pick
Carla Leite Over 14.5 points (-115)
Carla Leite has emerged as the Fire’s leading scorer through the first portion of their inaugural WNBA season, and she’s averaging 20.0 PPG in her last five games, admittedly boosted by a 32-point effort in the 4OT thriller against the Washington Mystics.
Even better, Leite is getting to the free-throw line at an impressive clip, with 46 FTA across her last five contests, and this O/U number feels too low.
Las Vegas struggled to contain Kelsey Mitchell in Sunday’s loss to the Indiana Fever, and Leite should be able to get into the lane, even if Wilson returns tonight for the visitors.
Tom Oldfield’s 2026 Transparency Record
Best bet: 7-6, +1.45 units
SGP: 2-11, -3.75 units
Player prop: 1-1, -0.2 units
Aces vs Fire odds
Spread: Las Vegas -8.5 | Portland +8.5
Moneyline: Las Vegas -380 | Portland +300
Over/Under: Over 174.5 | Under 174.5
Aces vs Fire trend
The Over is 5-1 in the Fire’s last six games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Aces vs Fire
Location
Moda Center, Portland, OR
Date
Thursday, July 9, 2026
Tip-off
10 p.m. ET
TV
KMCC, KPDX
Aces vs Fire latest injuries
Aces: Janiah Barker (leg) ruled out.
Fire: Sania Feagin (knee) out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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