Updated:
Jul 19, 2026 , 08:48 AM ET
• 4 min read
Expect a low-scoring affair tonight in Phoenix!
EXPERT PICK – PROP
Kahleah Copper o2.5 3-Pointers Made (+140)
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Alyssa Thomas of the Phoenix Mercury WNBA
The Phoenix Mercury are -3.5 point home favorites when they host the Connecticut Sun.
These teams played a high-scoring clash on Friday, but my Sun vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks expect Allysa Thomas and the Mercury to end their five-game losing skid in a low-scoring affair on July 19.
Sun vs Mercury prediction
Sun vs Mercury best bet: Under 167.5 (-110)
Friday’s 179-point score was an aberration. These teams combined for just 134 shots, meaning they only cleared the total because they shot way over their heads.
Take away the 25 points the Phoenix Mercury were gifted off turnovers and the Connecticut Sun’s 19 fast-break points, and the half-court offense was completely barren.
The Sun wants to slow this to a crawl. If the Mercury tries to speed it up to counter, they’ll just turn it over more because their offense is broken.
This total was steamed by as many as four points, and that is a massive overreaction.
Play to 164.5.
COVERS INTEL: The Mercury average 14.9 points from turnovers per game, and that is a far cry from the 25 points they scored Friday against the Sun.
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Sun vs Mercury same-game parlay
I don’t expect a high-scoring affair tonight, but I do expect Alyssa Thomas and the Mercury to win this game.
The Sun scored a whopping 46 points in the paint on Friday. That’s 10 more points than Phoenix usually allows, and I expect the Mercury to tighten up the defense and beat the Sun.
Thomas scored 17 points on Friday. She’s averaging 14.5 ppg, so we’re getting her floor at a reasonable price for a prop she’s cleared in five of her previous eight games.
Sun vs Mercury SGP
Under 167.5
Mercury moneyline
Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 points
Phil Naessens’ 2026 Transparency Record
Best bet: 9-10, -2.57 units
SGP: 5-14, +2.80 units
Player prop: 0-6, -6.0 units
Sun vs Mercury odds
Spread: Sun +3.5 | Mercury -3.5
Moneyline: Sun +140 | Mercury -165
Over/Under: Over 167.5 | Under 167.5
Sun vs Mercury trend
Alyssa Thomas has scored at least 15 points in five of her previous eight games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Sun vs Mercury
Location
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
Date
Sunday, July 19, 2026
Tip-off
7 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
Sun vs Mercury latest injuries
Sun: Aneesah Morrow (Out), Brittney Griner (GTD), Saniya Rivers (GTD), Aaliyah Edwards (GTD).
Mercury: Natasha Mack (Out), Sami Whitcomb (GTD).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu, Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast.
Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications, including Advance Local, SB Nation, FanSided, and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports.
His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe, and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.
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