Welcome, for a ninth time, to my re-draft and ranking review exercise at The Athletic.
Each summer, I re-draft the class from three years prior and begin to review my draft board against the draft itself.
While three years obviously isn’t the finish line for these players, it’s a natural point of re-entry as they are almost all now either established as NHLers or approaching the end of their prospect lifecycle.
This piece — along with my annual prospects I was wrong about — is meant to audit my process and results in an effort to build trust with my readers.
Let’s look at how I did in 2023 and how things have changed.
Previous re-drafts and ranking reviews: 2022| 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
Did the Panthers and Lightning fleece the Leafs?
Sean McIndoe and Jonas Siegel
1. Chicago Blackhawks: C Connor Bedard
Actual draft pick: No. 1 (change: none) to Blackhawks
My final ranking: No. 1 (change: none)
There’s more room for debate (I think it’s a short-lived debate, but you’d listen) now than there was then, but Bedard is still No. 1.
2. Anaheim Ducks: C Leo Carlsson
Actual draft pick: No. 2 (change: none) to Ducks
My final ranking: No. 4 (change: +2)
Carlsson is the highest-paid player from this class for now, and he holds as its No. 2 prospect. I felt he, Adam Fantilli and Matvei Michkov were neck-and-neck at the time, but the smoothness of his game with its combination of size, smarts and skating has given him the edge so far and probably should’ve given him the edge for me then.
3. Columbus Blue Jackets: C Adam Fantilli
Actual draft pick: No. 3 (change: none) to Blue Jackets
My final ranking: No. 3 (change: none)
Fantilli has yet to find that next level across a full 82 games, but he’s still second in the class in goals and third (by a single point to Carlsson) in points.
I felt Fantilli was going to have similar offense to Carlsson while being harder to play against. The gap has proven to be an IQ one, and that was evident at the time. I’m not going to lose sleep over having him slightly ahead after the season he had in college that year with the attributes he possesses. But that next level is in there, and he needs to go from the 25-30 goal, 55-60 point version of it he has already shown and become the 30-plus goal, 75-80 point force.
4. San Jose Sharks: C Will Smith
Actual draft pick: No. 4 (change: none) to Sharks
My final ranking: No. 5 (change: +1)
The re-draft stays the same through the first four picks, which is extremely rare. Smith’s pure individual skill is going to result in him becoming a point-per-game player in the league alongside Macklin Celebrini (or Ivar Stenberg, or Michael Misa).
He has already been right there in points per game (0.73) with Carlsson (0.77) and Fantilli (0.69) over the last two years.
5. Montreal Canadiens: RW Matvei Michkov
Actual draft pick: No. 7 (change: +2) to Flyers
My final ranking: No. 2 (change: -3)
I was a little too wooed by the track record and offensive IQ/skill with Michkov. His size, fitness, position and on-ice flaws (pace, off-puck habits) were clear at the time.
It’s easy to forget that we’re only a season removed from him having 63 points in 80 games as a rookie, the Flyers’ second-leading scorer, and the fourth-place finisher in Calder Trophy voting, but last year some of his issues caught up with him. It’s now on him to get his game right in some important areas. I still think he has point-per-game, first-line wing offense, but he was closer to the few names behind him here for me than the few names in front of him — and remains a complicated risk-reward slotting.
6. Arizona Coyotes: LW Zach Benson
Actual draft pick: No. 13 (change: +7) to Sabres
My final ranking: No. 6 (change: none)
My belief in Benson is well-documented, and I really trusted my evaluation of him as a dog who was going to drive play at both ends. He may not produce points like some of the names in front of him here (or even a couple of them behind him), but he will be their equal in impact because of everything he brings to the table. The hockey world saw it in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
While we’re at it, I think Benson is a future Selke candidate.
7. Philadelphia Flyers: RW/LW Gabe Perreault
Actual draft pick: No. 23 (change: +16) to Rangers
My final ranking: No. 7 (change: none)
“I’ve stuck my neck out on Perreault.”
“He’s likely going to be the fourth player from the national program picked because his game is believed to be less projectable. I’m less and less convinced of that.”
“He’s a better skater than he gets credit for.”
“There might not be a player in this draft class who thinks the game offensively at his level.”
Those are direct from my final draft ranking in 2023, and they hold true today. I don’t write a “prospects I was right about” piece opposite my “prospects I was wrong about” but … I’m going to be right about Perreault. I nailed this one, and I’m proud of it. If you watched some of his games late in the year with the Rangers, you’ll know.
8. Washington Capitals: RW Ryan Leonard
Actual draft pick: No. 8 (change: none) to Capitals
My final ranking: No. 11 (change: +3)
I think part of my belief in Perreault made me a little more reluctant than some in the league about Leonard. Leonard did a lot of the dirty work for that line with Smith and Perreault, stirring the drink with his strength, physicality, intensity and work ethic. He’s going to score 30 goals a year in the NHL and do it as a desirable player type. But while he has and will live up to his draft slot and I should have had him at No. 8 on my board, I still think I had the top seven players right.
9. Detroit Red Wings: C/RW/LW Roman Kantserov
Actual draft pick: No. 44 (change: +35) to Blackhawks
My final ranking: No. 65 (change: +56)
I wrote at the time that Kantserov belonged higher on talent, but I also gave too much weight to the Russian factor in 2022 and 2023 post-Ukraine invasion. Those guys have always stayed longer and come with some risk, but if that has grown, it hasn’t been as substantial as some (myself included) maybe anticipated. Looking back on my report, I think I got his profile right. Where I actually slotted him was much too low, though.
10. St. Louis Blues: G Jacob Fowler
Actual draft pick: No. 69 (change: +59) to Canadiens
My final ranking: No. 64 (change: +54)
Fowler looks like the best goalie prospect in what has so far proven to be an excellent goalie class. If he becomes a starter — and as good as Jakub Dobeš was last year, I still think Fowler is the starter of the future — he slots right around here.
11. Vancouver Canucks: C Calum Ritchie
Actual draft pick: No. 27 (change: +16) to Avalanche
My final ranking: No. 19 (change: +8)
Oshawa and Barrie are the OHL rinks I’m in the most, and so I saw a lot of Ritchie pre-draft and feel good about where I landed on him. I think he’s going to be No. 4 or 5 forward for a playoff team.
12. Arizona Coyotes: C Dalibor Dvorsky
Actual draft pick: No. 10 (change: -2) to Blues
My final ranking: No. 8 (change: -4)
Evaluators liked Dvorsky’s skill, sense and two-way commitment. The feet are just average, though. I think he has flown a little under the radar to non-Blues fans and is going to be a really solid contributor in a top nine and potentially on a second line for a long time. I was a little too high on him at draft time, though, and thought about ranking him a spot or two lower here.
13. Buffalo Sabres: LHD Dmitri Simashev
Actual draft pick: No. 6 (change: -7) to Coyotes
My final ranking: No. 35 (change: +22)
I thought about re-ranking Simashev as high as No. 11. He and Ritchie and Dvorsky are comparable for me, and most would favor the long, smooth-skating D.
See my recent prospects I was wrong about for more on what I miscalculated with Simashev.
14. Pittsburgh Penguins: G Trey Augustine
Actual draft pick: No. 41 (change: +27) to Red Wings
My final ranking: No. 55 (change: +41)
I’m oddly enough a little higher on Augustine than the consensus now, even though I had him ranked a little lower than where he was picked on draft day. I think he would go late in the first round if the league re-drafted.
15. Nashville Predators: RHD Axel Sandin-Pellikka
Actual draft pick: No. 17 (change: +2) to Red Wings
My final ranking: No. 16 (change: +1)
I thought about Sandin-Pellikka in the 15-18 range here and could flip around these next few players in any order. He goes right around where the Red Wings and I had him.
16. Calgary Flames: RHD David Reinbacher
Actual draft pick: No. 5 (change: -11) to Canadiens
My final ranking: No. 12 (change: -4)
I could see Reinbacher a couple of picks ahead of this in a do-over, but either way, he’s a teens guy and not a top-10 guy, let alone a top-five one today, and I think my projection and read on the player were pretty spot on.
17. Detroit Red Wings: G Michael Hrabal
Actual draft pick: No. 38 (change: +21) to Coyotes
My final ranking: No. 56 (change: +39)
Hrabal and Augustine were drafted three picks apart on draft day, ranked back-to-back on my list, and scouts would still be divided today. Hrabal might go ahead of Augustine because of his size, but they remain comparable prospects.
18. Winnipeg Jets: RW Bradly Nadeau
Actual draft pick: No. 30 (change: +12) to Hurricanes
My final ranking: No. 22 (change: +4)
It was hard to swing in the mid-first on a 5-foot-10 BCHL winger even when the Jr. A level was healthy, and even when that player was coming off one of its most productive seasons ever. Both the Hurricanes and I would have been prepared to take the swing a little earlier than most, though, and I think it’ll pay off when he takes that next step and becomes a middle-six producer with skill, scoring and speed.
19. Chicago Blackhawks: LW Nick Lardis
Actual draft pick: No. 67 (change: +48) to Blackhawks
My final ranking: No. 38 (change: +19)
I’ve been too slow to move guys when they’ve taken off late in a draft process before, and it has landed me some “prospects I was wrong about” at times. Lardis was one I didn’t hesitate to move after watching him explode in a few viewings with Hamilton in the second half, and I’m glad I did. All he does is score, and his speed, instincts and shot give me faith that he’ll score in the NHL.
20. Seattle Kraken: C Oliver Moore
Actual draft pick: No. 19 (change: -1) to Blackhawks
My final ranking: No. 9 (change: -11)
Moore is the fourth Blackhawks player in this new top 20. He was the best skater in the class, and I found him very likable as a player. I gave those two things too much weight against his average brain and finishing, though. He’s a good player. He’s never going to produce many points.
21. Minnesota Wild: RW Matthew Wood
Actual draft pick: No. 15 (change: -6) to Predators
My final ranking: No. 10 (change: -11)
Wood scored a very respectable 17 goals in 71 games as a rookie last year, which some players on this list won’t ever do in a season. His average off-puck play and feet limited his ceiling then and do still now, though. I think this is an appropriate recalibration.
22. Philadelphia Flyers: G Egor Zavragin
Actual draft pick: No. 87 (change: +65) to Flyers
My final ranking: Honorable mention
There aren’t often four legit goalies to come out of a class, and there’s no guarantee the four here (ending with Zavragin) all become legit NHLers, but they’ve certainly looked good so far.
23. New York Rangers: LW Andrew Cristall
Actual draft pick: No. 40 (change: +17) to Capitals
My final ranking: No. 13 (change: -10)
Cristall has always been a tough player to project because the track record and offensive smarts and skill have always been top-of-class after the big names in this age group. He continued to produce at that high level for his age in the AHL last year as well and nearly made the Capitals out of camp the year prior. But his size, style of play and feet have often held evaluators back from believing that NHL production would follow. I was too high on him, but there still comes a time in the re-draft when he’s one of the only names left who could point and play on a power play, and that’s somewhere in the late-first round here.
24. Nashville Predators: C Emmitt Finnie
Actual draft pick: No. 201 (change: +177) to Red Wings
My final ranking: Not ranked
The people in Kamloops told me — and evaluators around the league — to watch out for Finnie, and we all should have listened. I do still think he’s a high-floor, low-ceiling type and did consider re-ranking him in the late 20s. Either way, he’s the only seventh-rounder-turned-first-rounder here.
25. St. Louis Blues: RW Easton Cowan
Actual draft pick: No. 28 (change: +3) to Maple Leafs
My final ranking: No. 97 (change: +72)
Cowan’s first-round selection was against consensus even after his strong OHL playoffs in 2023. Here, he goes right about where he was taken.
See my recent prospects I was wrong about for more on what I miscalculated with Cowan.
26. San Jose Sharks: RHD Tom Willander
Actual draft pick: No. 11 (change: -15) to Canucks
My final ranking: No. 27 (change: +1)
Willander is the only D in the draft so far to play 70 games in a season. It was on the worst team in the league, though, and his game remains a work in progress. Skating has always carried him. His puck play needs to improve. I thought about ranking him in the early 20s.
27. Colorado Avalanche: LW Daniil But
Actual draft pick: No. 12 (change: -15) to Coyotes
My final ranking: No. 26 (change: -1)
But was a fascinating player then and remains one now. He has progressed well, too, and was productive in the AHL right away as a rookie last season. I just don’t think he’s more than a complementary middle-six piece long term, and that makes you a late first. I think I was in the right headspace on him in 2023.
28. Toronto Maple Leafs: C Nate Danielson
Actual draft pick: No. 9 (change: -19) to Red Wings
My final ranking: No. 20 (change: -8)
You have to be able to score, and Danielson has never put the puck in the net enough for me. He’s a good player, but if he doesn’t score, he will more likely finish a late-first than a top-10 pick when the dust settles.
29. St. Louis Blues: RHD Hunter Brzustewicz
Actual draft pick: No. 75 (change: +46) to Canucks
My final ranking: No. 40 (change: +11)
Memories of his lack of impact at the NTDP lingered too much for people with Brzustewicz, and his injury and spot on the depth chart behind Lane Hutson and Seamus Casey weren’t properly contextualized. His smarts and skating showed in Kitchener in his draft year and have shown in the AHL and NHL already.
30. Carolina Hurricanes: C Charlie Stramel
Actual draft pick: No. 21 (change: -9) to Wild
My final ranking: No. 37 (change: +7)
Stramel’s young career has had some ups and downs, but he’s on a positive upswing coming out of Michigan State and looks again like a future bottom-six center with size. I think my reservations were the right ones ahead of the draft, though.
31. Colorado Avalanche: LW Denver Barkey
Actual draft pick: No. 95 (change: +64) to Flyers
My final ranking: No. 83 (change: +52)
The takeaway here: Work ethic can take you a long way.
32. Vegas Golden Knights: RW Felix Unger Sörum
Actual draft pick: No. 62 (change: +30)
My final ranking: No. 91 (change: +59)
I felt there was a top 31 in this re-draft, and you could put any number of players 32nd here: Brayden Yager, Oliver Bonk, Lenni Hameenaho, Samuel Honzek, Theo Lindstein, Tanner Molendyk, Otto Stenberg, Felix Nilsson, Luca Pinelli, Luca Cagnoni, Quentin Musty, Gavin Brindley, Oscar Fisker Mølgaard, David Edstrom. Unger Sörum’s craft edged him for me, but it’s in pencil more than permanent marker.
I’m happy with where I was on most of those others, though, as well (right amount higher on Pinelli, Cagnoni, Fisker Mølgaard, right amount lower on Bonk, Edstrom, Honzek, Molendyk, while being only too high on Brindley and Musty, and too low on Lindstein and Nilsson).
How do you think I did?