I previously looked at running backs the market is, in my opinion, irrationally exuberant about. Now I’m doing the same thing with the backs who are receiving irrational pessimism.
As I wrote previously, try to get the player who the market is irrationally pessimistic about as close to that pessimistic price as possible. Rankings are not recommendations for what you should pay — that should always be ADP. Rather, they are a way to assess the expected value of the price you pay.
I used NFFC ADP in 91 July drafts through July 20. And I’ve included where I’m ranking the RBs in question in my subscription product. I always show my work so you can agree or disagree with the data and thus my ranking relative to consensus, which will be displayed as (ADP/my ranking).
James Cook (ADP RB6/my RB3)
I have Cook ahead of Christian McCaffrey. I’m not knocking CMC, but I can’t draft someone who ran so badly last year and showed signs of aging out of relevance even though the 49ers managed games as if their goal was to get McCaffrey the most fantasy points possible. Cook does not get anything close to CMC’s volume and barely gets 50% of snaps, but he’s in his prime and in a high-scoring offense. Last year, Cook had 39 carries of 10+ yards, trailing only De’Von Achane (40). Cook was RB6 last year after finishing RB11 in 2024. I’m not saying he should be the third player off the board, unless you play in an RB-heavy format where you can only play two WRs and a Flex. But I have to put him ahead of some others because he doesn’t have age, offensive line or QB worries. The Bills were fourth in fantasy points for RBs and seventh in passing points to their RBs. Will Cook be used more as a receiver in 2026? Possibly, though Ty Johnson is even better than Cook out of the backfield (yards per target). Consider this is a floor ranking for Cook.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB32/RB24)
Coming off a season during which Bucky Irving was terrible, Tampa Bay gave Gainwell starting RB money ($14 million over two years). With Pittsburgh in 2025, he was 21st in yards over expected per carry, 14th in yards after contact per carry (out of 48 RBs for both stats). He also had 73 catches last season, even though the efficiency was poor (5.7 yards per target; Jaylen Warren had 7.4). Gainwell was 4-for-8 inside the 5-yard line (Irving had zero inside-the-5 attempts, and of the Bucs’ returning players, Sean Tucker had nine). I’m ranking Gainwell over Irving because I’m following the money and the data. But this is a high-end zeroRB pick; don’t expect a bell cow.
J.K. Dobbins (RB38/RB25)
Dobbins’ continued excellence after crippling injuries is unprecedented. Last year, he was 12th in success rate, 12th in rushing yards over expected per carry, 13th in yards after contact per carry and seventh in yards per carry — again, that’s out of 48 RB qualifiers. He did all this after devastating knee and Achilles injuries. Is he a ticking time bomb? Probably, but a healthy Dobbins is one of the best backs in football. Dobbins said in July he was healthy and also stated his goal is to lead the NFL in rushing. He has the talent to do it, but not the body. Every week he’s healthy, you’ll get a high-quality back with good volume.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB41/RB30)
He was RB21 down the stretch in 2025 (Weeks 15-18; PPR scoring). His receiving is a major question mark, though new OC David Blough said he wants JCM more involved in the passing game. He was 12th in yards over expected per carry (out of 48) and eighth in yards after contact per carry. Blough also said JCM can be a starter “because he led the league in success rate, meaning he gained at least 40% of the yards required for a first down on 53.7% of his 175 carries.” I’ve moved JCM up from RB36 to RB30, just ahead of Rodriguez, in light of these comments from Blough combined with the objective skill JCM showed as a rookie. I’m not worried about Rachaad White, who was signed for just $2 million.
Chris Rodriguez (RB44/RB31)
Liam Coen coached Rodriguez at Kentucky when the RB averaged 6.1 yards per carry on 221 totes and had nine rushing TDs. Rodriguez was RB14 the final four weeks for Washington last year. Bhayshul Tuten fans like to mock Rodriguez, but the latter was good, borderline great, in 2025 — 14th in yards over expected per carry, sixth in EPA per attempt, eighth in success rate and third in yards after contact per attempt. Rodriguez also has the perfect profile for a goal-line back (5-for-13 inside the 5-yard line last year). Considering Rodriguez got $6.2 million guaranteed as a free agent, I will flip the narrative and say Rodriguez’s competition is just a mundane fourth-round pick.