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Good morning! Chris is off this week, but we’ve got familiar faces lined up to pinch hit. Today:

⚾ An all-time trade deadline puzzle
🚴 Historic Tour de France win
⛳ A golf star born?
Conundrums: A deadline crossroads like no other 

One week from the MLB trade deadline, the Detroit Tigers are facing one of the toughest deadline decisions ever, in any sport. Whatever they do could be a disaster.

Tarik Skubal is one of the best pitchers of his generation. The big lefty has won the last two American League Cy Young Awards. He missed a month and a half earlier this season after having surgery for loose bodies in his elbow, but now the 29-year-old is back and looks like, well, Skubal. His past two starts: 14 1/3 innings, 21 strikeouts, two walks, no homers, 1 run.

He’s also a free agent in a few months, and the Tigers at turns look like legit contenders and a team that will miss the postseason. There’s a lot going on here:

The best pitchers in baseball will likely be worth somewhere between two and three wins above replacement in August and September. That doesn’t guarantee the Tigers would lose that much value by trading Skubal, because even the great ones are subject to injury risk and down stretches. Skubal was worth 1.2 FanGraphs WAR from August onward last year, for example — really good, but not a peak stretch for him.
Still, it’s easy to see how subtracting Skubal could devastate the Tigers’ playoff hopes. The AL Central is bad. Entering yesterday, FanGraphs projected every team but the last-place Royals to finish between 79 and 82 wins. Imagine if the Tigers trade Skubal, miss the playoffs narrowly and watch their former ace embark on a CC Sabathia-in-Milwaukee run (4.7 WAR in 17 starts in 2008, good gravy).
The Tigers are 50-56, but they’ve been one of the best teams in baseball since falling to 16 games under .500 on May 31. Many of their key players are in their late 20s or early 30s. It’s not about a “window,” but quitting on this team wouldn’t be easy. FanGraphs pegged their playoff odds yesterday morning at 39.2 percent. Every win or loss could tilt the decision in one direction. (This includes yesterday’s loss to the Royals, one of many bullpen failures the team has endured.) Skubal says this team can win it all.
Plus, baseball’s weird in short samples. The Tigers sold at the deadline two years ago, trading starter Jack Flaherty (who’s now back, but injured) to the eventual champion Dodgers, and then made the playoffs anyway. Plus, they may well get a useful major leaguer or two in return for Skubal, muddying the wins calculation.

One more wrinkle: With an impending lockout, the sport’s economic structure could shift in big or small ways by next season. It’s a fascinating position for the team and for the pitcher, who appears comfortable being the main character of deadline season.

Teams and their soon-to-be-free agents have found themselves in similar situations many times, but the confluence of Skubal’s talent, the immediacy of his free agency, and the Tigers’ status on the border of contention makes this a real brain-buster. For example, the Nationals got a ransom for Juan Soto in 2022, but he was still two and a half seasons from his free agency and they were ticketed for a rebuild. Skubal won’t bring back as much, and the opportunity cost of not having him for the next few months could be enormous.

More: Skubal isn’t even the only Tigers pitcher in this boat: Casey Mize is there, too. Plus: ranking possible Skubal destinations.

News to Know

Pogačar wins record-tying fifth Tour
He didn’t win stage 21, but Tadej Pogačar wrapped up the big prize and became a five-time Tour de France champion yesterday, tying the record. The day’s other huge story was Mathieu van der Poel, who won one of the most captivating final stages the Tour has ever seen. After forming an alliance with Pogačar — who put on a show even through the typically ceremonial last stage — an exhausted van der Poel faced an onslaught in the final moments but hung on by a thread.

More news

The Arizona Cardinals and their starting quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, had been in a rumbling contract dispute in the early days of training camp. That’s now over, as the sides came together yesterday on a one-year, $15.5 million restructure of his deal.
The Cavaliers agreed to sign European star Mario Hezonja, who had been a bench forward in the late 2010s for a handful of NBA teams. LeBronsolation prize?
Speaking of: James’ deal with the Sixers is now official, the NBA said.
The Utah Talons swept the Chicago Bandits to win the AUSL title for a second time in the softball league’s two years of existence. It’s a dynasty.
Carlos Beltrån, Jeff Kent and Andruw Jones joined the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Lando Norris won Formula 1’s Hungarian Grand Prix. His McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri was furious after a collision with Williams’ Carlos Sainz, whom Piastri was in the process of lapping.
The Marlins lost a team-record 12th straight game and may now be deadline sellers. In other deadline developments, Mets starter Freddy Peralta said he had “probably” made his last start with the team, and A’s catcher and bandied-about trade chip Shea Langeliers went to the injured list with a torn meniscus.
Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski had a historic outing. Yes, again.
Corey Heim, a 24-year-old NASCAR Cup Series part-timer, continued his stunning ascent by winning the crown-jewel Brickyard 400. That’s two wins in five weeks.
Gianni Infantino said critics of his leadership of FIFA are “spreading hate.” OK.
Hi, My Name Is: The PGA Tour’s biggest breakout since … ? 

Jackson Koivun won the 3M Open yesterday with a winning score of 25 under par at TPC Twin Cities. On the one hand, sure, many of the PGA Tour’s best players took the week off after The Open Championship. On the other hand, the runner-up, at -22, was world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. No one can claim the Auburn alum didn’t beat anyone of consequence.

Koivun, 21, just turned pro this summer after one of the great careers in college golf history. Even by today’s standards, he hits the ball a mile and is capable of getting unusually dialed in with his irons. (Watch this shot.) On a scale of 1 to “Scottie,” how excited should fans be? I asked our golf editor, Hugh Kellenberger, who answered like this:

💬 “8.25. We’ve seen too many ‘phenoms’ get to the tour and burn out in recent years (shout-out to Nick Dunlap, who was the first amateur since Phil Mickelson to win and is now not ranked in the world’s top 350), but Koivun’s poise and his touch around the greens feel different than most. I’m not saying he should be on the Ryder Cup team (yet), but how about a Presidents Cup? Let’s stress-test this young man.”

Yeah, golf might really have one here.

Watch Guide

📺 Streaming: “Born to Bowl”
HBO Max
Amid one of the year’s quietest weeks of nationally televised live sports, I recommend this five-episode miniseries that serves as bowling’s answer to F1’s “Drive to Survive.” It’s fun, with a heavy emphasis on rivalries, and adds up to under three hours across five episodes.

📺 MLB: Guardians at Reds
7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN
The electric Chase Burns (2.42 ERA, 29 percent strikeout rate) faces one of the teams that would be most pleased if the Tigers moved Skubal before the deadline.

Pulse Picks

Read Sabreena Merchant’s takeaways from a busy, revamped WNBA All-Star weekend. Phenoms 📈

A perfect offseason list: The Athletic’s hockey staff came together to identify the definitive on-ice villain for every team in the NHL.

I liked Chad Jennings and Tim Britton’s analysis of a really fun baseball trade.

Most-clicked in yesterday’s newsletter: Kerry Wood’s behind-the-back pitch for the Savannah Bananas.

Most-read on the website yesterday: The recap of the Tour de France’s thrilling last stage.

📫 That’s all for now! Say hello at thepulse@theathletic.com, and check out our other newsletters.