The Athletic continues to put out some of the NHL’s best offseason content, especially at a time when not much is happening. If you’ve been following along here, you’ve probably noticed I’ve referenced several of its league-wide rankings in recent weeks.
I didn’t exactly see eye-to-eye with where Brett Kulak’s contract landed on its list of the NHL’s worst deals. But even in that case, the analysis usually makes for an interesting discussion.
The latest installment is no different.
Dom Luszczyszyn ranked all 32 NHL teams by contract efficiency on Wednesday, evaluating which clubs are getting the most value out of their payrolls and which ones have the least efficient collections of contracts. It’s become an increasingly relevant conversation as the salary cap continues to rise, even though this has long been one of Luszczyszyn’s annual offseason projects. The full article is well worth a read.
It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that the Carolina Hurricanes topped the rankings. They’ve consistently built one of the league’s deepest rosters by handing out team-friendly contracts, a strategy that helped them win the Stanley Cup while still carrying cap flexibility. (Those Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven deals look incredible.)
The Montreal Canadiens checked in at No. 2, thanks in part to Ivan Demidov’s extremely team-friendly contract, which looks even better after several comparable young stars signed much richer deals later in the summer. This came months after Lane Hutson signed a max-term deal that he probably regrets already, given what some of his peers are getting.
As for the Colorado Avalanche, they landed at No. 6 overall.
That’s a strong showing, especially for a team built around several superstar contracts.
According to Luszczyszyn’s model, every Avalanche contract provides positive value except for Nic Roy, Logan O’Connor, Gabe Landeskog, Mackenzie Blackwood, and the aforementioned Kulak.
Some of those are easier to understand than others.
Roy’s inclusion is interesting. I’m not sure I agree with it. A $3 million cap hit for one more season in today’s NHL feels like solid value regardless of the model.
O’Connor’s negative rating is likely tied to the significant time he missed with injury last season, mixed with the five-year remaining term.
Landeskog’s contract is more complicated. His value goes well beyond what can be measured statistically. If he’s healthy and producing, the leadership, culture, and presence he brings to Colorado’s dressing room are impossible to ignore, even if those qualities don’t show up in an analytical model.
Blackwood is probably the easiest one to debate. At $5.25 million annually, the Avalanche need him to play at a higher level than he did last year. I think he will, assuming he stays healthy. But if injuries or inconsistency become an issue, that contract could become problematic in a hurry.
Ultimately, finishing sixth out of 32 teams says a lot about how well Colorado has managed its cap situation.
It’ll be fascinating to revisit these rankings a year from now. By then, the Avalanche will have new contracts in place for Artturi Lehkonen and Cale Makar, along with other roster changes that will inevitably reshape the team’s salary structure.