The New York Liberty visit the Phoenix Mercury on Saturday at 3 p.m. ET in a nationally televised tilt on ABC and streaming on Disney+. The Liberty enter looking to rebound from Thursday’s 104-99 loss to Las Vegas, which ended New York’s three-game winning streak and dropped the defending contenders to 16-13. Breanna Stewart remained in strong form with 26 points and 11 rebounds, but the Liberty’s recent defensive issues resurfaced as the Aces shot better than 51% from the field.
Phoenix comes to this one at 11-18 with considerably more momentum after winning three straight, including Wednesday’s 91-89 victory over Golden State behind 27 points from Kahleah Copper and a near triple-double from Alyssa Thomas, who finished with 25 points, nine rebounds and eight assists.
New York won the teams’ first meeting 84-74 on May 27, but slowing Copper and Thomas will be critical as the Liberty try to avoid consecutive road losses.
With New York trying to regain its footing and Phoenix carrying a three-game winning streak into Saturday, the matchup offers several close calls for prediction-market traders. Here’s how Polymarket currently prices the Liberty-Mercury moneyline, spread, total and featured player scoring positions.
Polymarket positions for WNBA Liberty vs. Mercury
Polymarket gives the New York Liberty a modest edge over the Phoenix Mercury ahead of Saturday’s 3 p.m. ET matchup. New York’s moneyline position trades at 56 cents, while Phoenix sits at 46 cents. The spread and total markets remain nearly even, pointing to expectations for a competitive, relatively high-scoring game.
Main game positionsMarketLiberty positionMercury positionMoneylineLiberty 56¢Mercury 46¢SpreadLiberty -2.5 at 52¢Mercury +2.5 at 53¢TotalOver 175.5 at 52¢Under 175.5 at 53¢
New York’s 56-cent moneyline price reflects a slight lean toward the Liberty, but Phoenix remains within striking distance at 46 cents. The spread market is even tighter, with both sides priced near the midpoint. Traders also show little separation on the 175.5-point total, although the under holds a narrow one-cent advantage.
Player points positionsPlayerPoints lineOverUnderJonquel Jones13.595¢97¢Alyssa Thomas14.596¢98¢Sabrina Ionescu19.595¢98¢Kahleah Copper21.595¢97¢Breanna Stewart22.596¢96¢
The available scoring positions focus on several of the matchup’s biggest stars. Breanna Stewart owns the highest Liberty total at 22.5 points, followed by Sabrina Ionescu at 19.5. Phoenix guard Kahleah Copper carries a 21.5-point line, while Alyssa Thomas and Jonquel Jones are listed at 14.5 and 13.5, respectively. Prices can move before tipoff as traders react to injury reports, confirmed lineups and market activity.
Polymarket odds and prices reflect live peer-to-peer trading and update in real time.
WNBA prediction markets:
Local basketball fans in New York and Arizona can now use prediction markets to trade on the WNBA as an alternative to typical betting. Here are our top options, and available promo codes for new users:
PlatformWNBA Eligible?July ’26 Sign-Up BonusVerified Promo CodesPolymarketYes$50CUSE, MASS, OREGON, SILIVE, CLEVEKalshiYes$10SYRACUSE, OREGONLIVE1, MASSLIVE1, SILIVE, CLEVELANDNovigYes$50SYRACUSE, OREGON, MASSLIVE, CLEVELANDWNBA betting preview: New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury
Explore the interactive widget below to see the spread, total, and moneyline betting odds and probabilities for the Liberty-Mercury WNBA matchup in Phoenix, AZ.
Here are the key details for Saturday’s marquee WNBA matchup, including the latest traditional odds:
Game detailsTeams: New York Liberty vs. Phoenix MercuryDate: Saturday, August 1, 2026Time: 3:00 PM ETVenue: Mortgage Matchup Center| Phoenix, AZTV: ABC, Disney+WNBA standings: Current WNBA regular season standingsWNBA news: Check the latest updates from the official WNBA news siteExpert Prediction: Liberty vs. Mercury
Dimers’ simulation model favors New York after running the matchup 10,000 times. The Liberty win 67% of the simulations and cover the 2.5-point spread in 58%, giving New York a projected seven-percentage-point edge against the market price. Dimers projects an 88-83 Liberty victory, with Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu leading a balanced offense while Alyssa Thomas keeps Phoenix competitive with her scoring and playmaking.
Best Bet: Liberty -2.5
Our best bet is New York Liberty -2.5. New York’s season-long ATS results have been disappointing, entering at 10-16 against the spread, but this small number offers more room than many of their earlier favorite roles. More importantly, New York has already beaten Phoenix twice this season, winning 84-74 on May 27 and 75-68 two nights later. Both margins cleared Saturday’s 2.5-point line, while the first victory came with New York laying four points. With Dimers giving the Liberty a 58% chance to cover and projecting a five-point win, New York -2.5 is the preferred position despite the team’s uneven overall ATS record.
Projected box score
New York Liberty
PlayerPointsReboundsAssistsBreanna Stewart1883Sabrina Ionescu1855Jonquel Jones1282Pauline Astier1033Marine Johannès822
Phoenix Mercury
PlayerPointsReboundsAssistsKahleah Copper2142Alyssa Thomas1589DeWanna Bonner1061Valériane Ayayi942Aerial Powers612
These Liberty vs. Mercury predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, can guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For further insights, explore Dimers’ expert WNBA predictions and the best WNBA bets today, while their in-depth analysis includes WNBA props, WNBA futures, WNBA odds, and the latest WNBA news.
This Polymarket Invite Code secures a $20 cash trading bonus in three simple steps.Polymarket Invite Code.Conclusion: Polymarket eyeing bounce back by Liberty on Saturday
Phoenix enters with momentum, but New York’s previous success in the matchup and Dimers’ simulation advantage point toward the Liberty earning another victory. Polymarket traders can follow the moneyline, Liberty -2.5 spread, 175.5-point total and featured player scoring positions as prices move before Saturday afternoon’s tipoff.
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