Here we are again, Milwaukee Brewers fans. It’s magic number season.
Recent results have been dispiriting, but the Brewers are still in an enviable position with September right around the corner, owning a three-game lead in the National League Central and a 75-48 record that’s the best in the National League. Last year, the Brewers won a franchise-record 97 games.
Here’s what’s left to accomplish in 2026 (through games of Aug. 14):
What’s the Milwaukee Brewers’ magic number to secure a playoff spot?
It’s 37 to win the NL Central and 30 to clinch a playoff spot of any kind.
The latter is the number it would take for the Brewers to finish with a better record than the Philadelphia Phillies, the first team currently outside the playoff field (on tiebreaker, anyway). The former number is what it would take to clinch a better record than the current top threat in the Central, the Cubs.
How is the ‘magic number’ calculated and what does it mean?
The magic number is the total number of outcomes that have to go right for a team to secure a playoff spot. That means any combination of Brewers wins or losses by the second-place team (the Cubs, for now) adding up to the magic number will do the trick.
It’s a pretty easy calculation. Take the overall number of games in a season (162 in this case), add one (we’ll tell you why in a second) for 163, subtract the wins of the first-place team (the Brewers have 75) and the losses of the nearest chasing competitor (the Cubs, in this case, have 51). Boom – you have the number 37 to win the Central.
You have to add one because the goal is to win outright and not simply finish with a tied record, so the extra digit means the calculation tells you the number to win the division or playoff spot outright, not merely finish in a tie. The Brewers can further strengthen their position by securing a season tiebreaker, too, so the tie would be just as good as the outright lead.
How close are the Milwaukee Brewers to a first-round bye?
The top two division winners by record earn first-round byes in the National League playoffs. At the moment, those teams are the Brewers (75-48, one game ahead of the Dodgers) and Dodgers (74-49, ½ game ahead of the Braves).
The Brewers trail season series with the Dodgers, 3-2, with two games to play, and trail the Braves, 2-1, with three games to play. Those outcomes will determine tiebreakers.
If the season ended today, would the Milwaukee Brewers have a playoff spot?
Heavens, yes. They have a three-game lead in the division and would win the Central, securing the No. 1 seed in the NL playoff field. That would give the Brewers a first-round bye and a meeting with the No. 4 seed or No. 5 seed, both wild card teams. That would be the Chicago Cubs or San Diego Padres today.
The Brewers have never led by this many games this late in the season and not won the division. The 2014 team that famously collapsed held a three-game lead July 26 before a downturn. The 2022 team reached a four-game lead July 30 before things went south.
Would the Milwaukee Brewers’ record be good enough for a wild-card spot if they weren’t winning the Central?
Obviously. If we imagine a team passed the Brewers in the Central standings, they’d still have the top wild-card record.
The top wild card finisher (No. 4 seed) will essentially have the same postseason plight as the lowest division winner (the No. 3 seed), hosting a best-of-three playoff series in the first round against another playoff team.
Are the Milwaukee Brewers on track to set a franchise record for wins?
The Brewers (75-48) are on pace to win 98 games, which would surpass the franchise record for wins (97) set in 2025.
The Brewers need to finish 23-16 to get the record (98 wins). If they finish .500 the rest of the way (20-19), they’ll end up 95-67.
Who’s in the MLB playoffs if the season ended today?The Brewers (75-48) and Dodgers (74-49) would have a first-round bye.The Brewers would play the winner of a wild-card series between the fourth-seeded Cubs (72-51) and the fifth-seeded San Diego Padres (66-57).The Dodgers would play the winner of the third-seeded Atlanta Braves (73-49) and the sixth-seeded Arizona Diamondbacks (65-58).The Philadelphia Phillies (65-58) have the same record as Arizona but the Diamondbacks temporarily lead the season series and have the tiebreaker edge.In the American League, the playoff teams would be the Tampa Bay Rays (74-47), Chicago White Sox (63-58), Houston Astros (63-60), New York Yankees (68-54), Boston Red Sox (65-57) and Detroit Tigers (60-62). The Texas Rangers (60-63) and the Minnesota Twins (60-63) are ½ game back, while the Toronto Blue Jays (60-64) and Baltimore Orioles (59-63) are one game back.When do the playoffs begin for the Milwaukee Brewers?
The Major League Baseball playoffs begin Sept. 29 with the wild-card series (best-of-three format); if the season ended today, the Brewers wouldn’t have to play in that round and advance straight to the National League Division Series (best-of five), which begins Saturday, Oct. 3. The NLCS would begin Sunday, Oct. 11 in a best-of-seven format, and the World Series will begin Friday, Oct. 23, in a best-of-seven format.
How are the Milwaukee Brewers’ top challengers faring?
The Brewers have the seventh-hardest remaining strength of schedule (according to opponent winning percentage). Milwaukee is 5-5 in its last 10 games and 11-9 in its last 20. The Brewers’ next opponents are the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road and then home against the Seattle Mariners.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 74-49 (No. 2 seed)Last 10: 5-5Last 20: 9-11Remaining strength of schedule: 21st-hardestWho’s next on the schedule? vs. Milwaukee Brewers, at Colorado RockiesHeadline of note: Edwin Díaz has been rocky again on back-to-back nights, but he survives Aug. 14 on a night Yoshinobu Yamamoto dominates Brewers. The Dodgers appear to have weathered their storm, within striking distance of re-taking the top record in baseball.
Atlanta Braves
Record: 73-49 (No. 3 seed)Last 10: 6-4Last 20: 13-7Remaining strength of schedule: third-hardestWho’s next on the schedule? vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, at Minnesota TwinsHeadline of note: Chris Sale excellent again for Braves, but bats go quiet in 2-0 loss Aug. 14 to playoff-hungry Diamondbacks.
Chicago Cubs
Record: 72-51 (No. 4 seed)Last 10: 8-2Last 20: 14-6Remaining strength of schedule: second-hardestWho’s next on the schedule? vs. St. Louis Cardinals, vs. Chicago White SoxHeadline of note: Clay Holmes takes a perfect game into the sixth inning Aug. 14 as one of baseball’s hottest teams keeps on churning in 3-0 victory.
San Diego Padres
Record: 64-57 (No. 5 seed)Last 10: 8-2Last 20: 16-4Remaining strength of schedule: 15th-hardestWho’s next on the schedule? at Cleveland Guardians, at New York MetsHeadline of note: Padres remain baseball’s hottest team, with Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. homering in Aug. 14 win over Guardians.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 65-58 (No. 6 seed)Last 10: 5-5Last 20: 11-9Remaining strength of schedule: 13th-hardestWho’s next on the schedule? at Atlanta Braves, at Boston Red SoxHeadline of note: Brandon Pfaadt stellar for second straight start in 2-0 win over powerhouse Braves on Aug. 14.
Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 65-58 (tied for last playoff spot)Last 10: 5-5Last 20: 9-11Remaining strength of schedule: fifth-hardestWho’s next on the schedule? at Minnesota Twins, vs. Miami MarlinsHeadline of note: Kyle Schwarber homers twice in Iowa corn fields as Phillies defeat Minnesota in specialty game.
This story has been updated to add new information.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: What’s the Brewers’ magic number to make the playoffs? Where they sit
Reporting by JR Radcliffe, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
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