Bill Parcells, look away.

The Hall of Fame coach — and mentor to Bill Belichick, who then mentored Nick Saban — famously said, “You are what your record says you are.” Meaning: No matter how good you think you are, the results are all that matter.

However, he was talking about the NFL, with divisions and balanced scheduling decided by a central office. College football? Hah! In the world of mega-conferences, imbalanced conference scheduling, and you’re-on-your-own nonconference scheduling, an 8-4 team may play up, and a 10-2 team may play down.

Was Texas A&M, which went one-and-done in the College Football Playoff last year, an 11-1 team? The win at Notre Dame was impressive, but its SEC opponents went 18-46 in conference games.

The flipside included some of the conference’s most disappointing teams. It’s still hard to look back on the talent on hand and say Florida and South Carolina were 4-8 teams, and Auburn was a 5-7 team. They weren’t great teams, and it was time for the Gators and Tigers to make coaching changes, but it didn’t help that South Carolina’s schedule drew opponents with a 42-22 conference record. Auburn’s were 39-25, and Florida’s were 37-27.

Everyone can talk about the grind of an SEC schedule, but in a conference where each schedule is different, the grind is different.

So as the SEC’s nine-game schedule arrives — and everyone still plays at least one more power-conference opponent — here’s an exercise (in futility, perhaps). Not simply a prediction on how the SEC standings will look based on feel, but actually going through game by game and picking winners, and not rethinking any outcomes to make it fit what it feels like a team’s record should be.

And if the result is five teams with at least 10 wins, despite the dire warnings of coaches, then so be it. And yes, that’s a spoiler alert.

PredictionsAlabama (10-2, 7-2)

Wins: East Carolina, at Kentucky, Florida State, South Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Tennessee, Texas A&M, at Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, Auburn.
Losses: Georgia, at LSU.

Alabama’s youth, including at quarterback, makes it feel like a 9-3 team. And it could end up that way. The picks for Alabama to beat Tennessee and Texas A&M were not made with much confidence, nor was the pick to lose to Georgia. The Vanderbilt and Auburn games could also easily go the other way. The Crimson Tide make for a swingy team.

Arkansas (3-9, 1-8)

Wins: North Alabama, Tulsa, Missouri.
Losses: at Utah, Georgia, at Texas A&M, Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, at Auburn, South Carolina, at Texas, LSU.

The Razorbacks could steal some more home wins, perhaps Tennessee and South Carolina. However, Ryan Silverfield, who has 80 new players, seems in for a rough season. Even the home win over Missouri was dicey.

Auburn (7-5, 4-5)

Wins: vs. Baylor (in Atlanta), Southern Miss, Florida, Samford, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, at Mississippi State.
Losses: at Tennessee, at Georgia, LSU, at Ole Miss, at Alabama.

I’m bullish on Alex Golesh in his first year because he’s bringing his quarterback and much of the offense with him from South Florida and adding it to a ready-made SEC defense. The problem is that road schedule.

Florida (7-5, 4-5)

Wins: Florida Atlantic, Campbell, South Carolina, Oklahoma, at Kentucky, Vanderbilt, at Florida State.
Losses: at Auburn, Ole Miss, at Missouri, at Texas, vs. Georgia (in Atlanta).

Jon Sumrall, with Buster Faulkner in tow to fix the offense, may coach up the Gators into Playoff contention right away. Those Auburn and Missouri trips could easily be wins, along with the Ole Miss game. But there are enough questions — like quarterback — to take a wait-and-see approach.

There are high hopes for a quick turnaround at Florida under Jon Sumrall, who took Tulane to the CFP. (Dustin Markland / Getty Images)

Georgia (11-1, 8-1)

Wins: Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, at Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, at Alabama, Auburn, vs. Florida (in Atlanta), Missouri, at South Carolina, Georgia Tech.
Loss: at Ole Miss.

After years of hard conference schedules, Georgia gets off relatively easy in the first nine-game season. The Alabama game could easily be a loss, and Oklahoma can spring an upset. However, 9-3 feels like the absolute floor for Kirby Smart’s team, which should have a stifling defense, strong running game and Gunner Stockton’s experience at quarterback.

Kentucky (4-8, 1-8)

Wins: Youngstown State, South Alabama, Vanderbilt, Louisville.
Losses: Alabama, at Texas A&M, at South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma, at Tennessee, Florida, at Missouri.

Will Stein needs time to build up his program, and the schedule does him no favors. South Carolina and Missouri are games I’d give the Cats if they were in Lexington, but let’s give them the rivalry win against a Louisville team that’s supposed to be better.

LSU (10-2, 7-2)

Wins: Clemson, Louisiana Tech, Texas A&M, McNeese State, at Kentucky, Mississippi State, at Auburn, Alabama, Texas, at Arkansas.
Losses: at Ole Miss, at Tennessee.

There’s a wide range of potential records here. LSU could be good right away with Lane Kiffin, Sam Leavitt and the other immediate additions … or the Tigers could be a seven-win team again, if you add Texas A&M, Alabama and Texas to the two road losses.

Ole Miss (10-2, 7-2)

Wins: vs. Louisville (in Nashville), Charlotte, LSU, at Florida, at Vanderbilt, Missouri, Auburn, Georgia, Wofford, Mississippi State.
Losses: at Texas, at Oklahoma.

Maybe the Rebels slip without Kiffin — or more precisely, without play caller Charlie Weis Jr., who stuck around for last year’s Playoff. Still, the bet here is on what we saw from Pete Golding, Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy, plus an underrated core of returning players.

Why Ole Miss is here to stay

Seth Emerson

Mississippi State (4-8, 2-7)

Wins: Louisiana Monroe, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Tennessee Tech.
Losses: at Minnesota, at South Carolina, Alabama, at LSU, Oklahoma, at Texas, Auburn, at Ole Miss.

This is where the nine-game schedule may keep a team from bowl eligibility. Replace it with another guarantee game, then win one more, and the Bulldogs are there. Of course, that’s still a hard ask for Jeff Lebby’s team, which got better last year but has a ways to go to be fully out of the SEC’s bottom tier.

Missouri (5-7, 2-7)

Wins: Arkansas Pine Bluff, at Kansas, Troy, Florida, Kentucky.
Losses: at Mississippi State, Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, at Arkansas, Texas, at Georgia, at Oklahoma.

This would be Mizzou’s worst record in a decade, and quite a comedown for a team that’s 29-10 over the past three seasons. But it’s very fungible: Those losses at Mississippi State and Arkansas could easily reverse, and if the wins hold (at Kansas is the toughest), that’s at least a winning record.

Oklahoma (8-4, 6-3)

Wins: UTEP, New Mexico, Kentucky, at Mississippi State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, at Missouri.
Losses: at Michigan, at Georgia, vs. Texas (Dallas), at Florida.

There are six preseason AP Top 25 teams on Oklahoma’s schedule, and Florida is two spots from being ranked. A 9-3 record may be enough for the Sooners to return to the Playoff. We may know a lot right away with that Week 2 trip to Michigan.

South Carolina (7-5, 5-4)

Wins: Kent State, Towson, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas A&M, at Arkansas.
Losses: at Alabama, at Florida, at Oklahoma, Georgia, at Clemson.

If you told Gamecocks fans two years ago that they’d have LaNorris Sellers, Nyck Harbor and Dylan Stewart back in 2026 and only go 7-5, they’d be sorely disappointed. But after last season, they’ll probably take it. Finish off with a win at Clemson, and Shane Beamer’s job would seem secure.

Tennessee (8-4, 5-4)

Wins: Furman, at Georgia Tech, Kennesaw State, Auburn, at Arkansas, Kentucky, LSU, at Vanderbilt.
Losses: Texas, Alabama, at South Carolina, at Texas A&M.

Now that the Vols are officially starting a true freshman quarterback (Faizon Brandon), maybe the goal this season is to play well enough to leave optimism for 2027. However, those marquee home games — Texas, Alabama and LSU — provide a chance both to do more … or leave the Neyland Stadium faithful more angsty about Josh Heupel.

Texas (10-2, 7-2)

Wins: Texas State, Ohio State, UTSA, at Tennessee, vs. Oklahoma (Dallas), Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, at Missouri, Arkansas.
Losses: at LSU, at Texas A&M.

In this prediction, the Longhorns are unbeaten well into November — probably ranked No. 1 in the polls with that win over Ohio State — and then lose twice in the final three weeks. That would still be enough to get in the Playoff, but this schedule, with OSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M, won’t be a slam dunk.

Texas A&M (8-4, 5-4)

Wins: Missouri State, Arizona State, Kentucky, Arkansas, at Missouri, The Citadel, Tennessee, Texas.
Losses: at LSU, at Alabama, at South Carolina, at Oklahoma.

We’re giving the Aggies the win over the Longhorns and still have them 8-4 and out of the Playoff. The combined conference record of their nine foes is still under .500, but it’s got six preseason AP Top 25 teams.

Vanderbilt (4-8, 1-8)

Wins: Austin Peay, Delaware, NC State, Arkansas.
Losses: at Auburn, at Georgia, Ole Miss, at Kentucky, at Mississippi State, Alabama, at Florida, Tennessee.

Nate Bargatze and fellow Vanderbilt fans are free to deride this. And if I were betting, I’d say the ‘Dores do make it back to a bowl, but let’s see how the first few weeks look in the post-Diego Pavia era.

Seth Emerson’s SEC predictions

TeamPredicted overallPredicted SEC

11-1

8-1

10-2

7-2

10-2

7-2

10-2

7-2

10-2

7-2

8-4

6-3

8-4

5-4

7-5

5-4

8-4

5-4

7-5

4-5

7-5

4-5

4-8

2-7

4-8

1-8

4-8

1-8

3-9

1-8

These standings are a Greg Sankey fever dream … and maybe a Tony Pettiti nightmare?

Pettiti, the Big Ten commissioner, could use the SEC beating itself up in its nine-game format to swing momentum for a 24-team CFP. Sankey, the SEC commissioner, would look at five 10-win teams, which may all make the 12-team field, and then start pulling for one of them to end the championship drought.

Then Pettiti could point out that Oklahoma, Texas A&M and maybe even a few others would make a 24-team field, rather than going to play in the Outback Bowl. That might be enough to sway SEC presidents to let Sankey go along with the 24-team field.

Also, in this scenario, the SEC championship — perhaps the last one — will be Georgia vs. Ole Miss. (And thank you to the wonderful site bball.nothing.net for computing that.) And that would be the fourth time the two teams have met in the past two seasons and the sixth time in four seasons.

However, nothing in this era ever plays out as expected. So take this exercise as you will, and please forget it come December — especially Vanderbilt fans.