AFC West7 of 8

Denver Broncos: OVER 9.5 Wins

The Denver Broncos had the best record in the AFC last year. If quarterback Bo Nix didn’t break his ankle in the playoffs, the Broncos may well have represented the conference in Super Bowl LX.

It starts with Denver’s defense, which is among the league’s best. The loss of edge-rusher Jonathon Cooper is a blow, but the Broncos are not going to be an easy team to score on.

Bo Nix appears to be 100 percent entering the league, and the Broncos gave him a shiny new toy in the passing game in wide receiver Jaylen Waddle.

There aren’t many weaknesses in the Mile High City.

Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 10.5 Wins

The Chiefs have been the AFC’s most consistently dominant teams over the past decade—last year’s 6-11 finish was the first time the team didn’t win the AFC West since all the way back in 2015.

That dominance is reflected in this number. But it’s also a tall ask.

Patrick Mahomes will start Week 1, but he’s working back from an ACL tear and may not be 100 percent for a while. The entire Kansas City offense has been pedestrian as often as not the past two years, and with Travis Kelce all but certainly entering his final season the passing attack could again struggle to challenge defenses vertically.

The Chiefs are too good to post another sub-.500 season. But expecting a juggernaut is, again, a tall ask.

Las Vegas Raiders: OVER 5.5 Wins

Let’s hear it for low expectations!

The city they play in may not have high expectations for the Raiders in 2026, but don’t tell fans that—Fernando-Mania is sweeping through the fanbase after the Raiders drafted Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza first overall this year,

It will be Kirk Cousins under center to start the season, and he’ll lead an offense that includes running back Ashton Jeanty, tight end Brock Bowers and—that’s it. The offensive line should be better, but that doesn’t mean they will be good.

The defense still has edge-rusher Maxx Crosby, and the Raiders spent a ton on adding free agents on that side of the ball. That defense will be improved this season, but there’s a lot of room for it.

Baby steps, Raider Nation. Baby steps.

Los Angeles Chargers: OVER 9.5 Wins

The Los Angeles Chargers are one of the better teams in the league no mentioned a lot as one of the better teams in the league.

It’s a team that could do real damage this season. Justin Herbert may not be an elite quarterback, but he isn’t far off. The Chargers fielded one of the league’s best defenses last year—the Chargers were a top-10 defense across the board and a top-five defense in terms of yards allowed.

But the same issue that plagued the Bolts last year threatens to do them again in 2026—the offensive line. A year ago, it was the tackles. This year, it’s the interior of the offensive line that’s the problem.