The Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2026 season begins in less than one week. A new chapter the organization will begin writing as Mike McCarthy replaces Mike Tomlin. As usual, I like to offer 10 thoughts of mine about the team’s upcoming season. We’ll revisit these feelings and predictions after the year to see what I got right – and, of course, what I got wrong.

1. Aaron Rodgers’ Continuity Will Be Felt

To what degree is harder to say. But Aaron Rodgers returning as the team’s first season opener repeat starter since Ben Roethlisberger in 2020 and 2021 has legitimate value. As does reuniting with Mike McCarthy. The rest of the offense is still working toward getting comfortable in the scheme, but when your quarterback and head coach are aligned, that’s a positive.

It’s also positive for DK Metcalf and Pat Freiermuth, two men who have played quarterback roulette for too long. That should result in quicker starts and an offense less conservative and more willing to push the ball downfield while utilizing all areas of the field. Even Freiermuth has joked that the middle of the field is finally open for business.

Specifically, Pittsburgh finally ends its mind-blowing streak of failing to score more than seven points in the first quarter. A trend that’s gone on for 67 games, dating back to Week 2 of the 2022 season.

2. Pittsburgh’s Offensive Line Will Have Early Growing Pains But Round Into Form

This is how Pittsburgh’s offensive line has performed for several seasons. An ugly start followed by the unit hitting its stride midway through the year. With a group that’s either moved around, entered new roles, or will be starting for the first time all under the guidance of a new offensive line coach.

The group is talented and there’s reason for optimism, and the starters’ preseason play wasn’t as poor as some made it out to be. Still, this group will take some time to get on solid footing. A favorable matchup against a depleted Atlanta Falcons front at least helps.

3. The Run Defense Will Finish Top Ten

That’s from a yards per carry allowed perspective. I debated pushing it to “Top Five” but that might be a touch too strong in terms of declarations. Run defense has been a disappointing spot the past two seasons, but there is good reason to think Pittsburgh returns to form. A defensive line hitting the right mix of veterans, rising youngsters, and rookies. Top to bottom, Pittsburgh has a group capable of stopping the run. Add sturdy EDGE rushers, a secondary willing to help, an inside linebacker duo that looks more aggressive, and a front-minded defensive coordinator, and this unit should be well above league average. At a minimum.

Pass rush from the defensive line is a different story. Cam Heyward and Keeanu Benton can get after it. Everyone else is a question with the d-line mostly full of run stoppers. Of course, Pittsburgh will count on its EDGE rushers and more creative rush scheme to pick up the slack.

4. The Takeaway Ranking…Will Not

A longstanding concern of mine. Patrick Graham can do plenty well but his resume of producing takeaways is light. The culture simply doesn’t feel as strong.

Since 2020, no team has forced as many turnovers as Pittsburgh. With 99, no team has as many interceptions, either. I’m far from convinced Pittsburgh will finish in its normal top-five spot, and it might fall to league average. Perhaps other facets of the defense make up for it, but this is a central worry.

5. Pat Freiermuth Returns To Form

Not the boldest prediction to make but one that feels certain given Arthur Smith/Jonnu Smith’s departure and the McCarthy hire. Rodgers and Freiermuth showed excellent chemistry this summer and count on Pittsburgh throwing over the middle far more often than before. I wouldn’t be shocked if Freiermuth finishes second on the team in receptions in a return to a 60-65 catch season that looks similar to the ones he had pre-2025.

Darnell Washington, however, could struggle to replicate his 31-catch season from a year ago. Early returns indicate he’s the one getting squeezed out.

6. Wide Receiver Will Still Feel Incomplete

Is the wide receiver room better than a year ago? Yes. But how good is it really? On paper, it remains a bottom-third group leaguewide. I’ve never been crazy about the Michael Pittman Jr. addition, Roman Wilson has struggled to transfer his play from practice to stadium action, and Germie Bernard doesn’t yet have Aaron Rodgers’ trust.

I’ve maintained a concern over the unit’s ability to consistently create explosive passing plays and its ability to reliably win versus man coverage. By year’s end, the Steelers will still feel at least one receiver short of a strong starting trio.

7. Kaden Wetjen Houses One Against The Ravens

Let’s get specific with this one. Among my favorite 2026 storylines will be when the Steelers and Ravens get together for the first time in Week 15. Beyond the usual trimmings of what Steelers vs. Ravens looks like, especially with two new head coaches, I’m all about the Kaden Wetjen versus Ryan Eckley storyline.

Pittsburgh drafted Wetjen as its ace returner while Baltimore picked Eckley as its new punter. In 2025, the two faced off when Wetjen’s Iowa Hawkeyes played Eckley’s Michigan State Spartans. Like Steelers versus Ravens, it was a nailbiter that came down to Iowa making a game-winning kick as time expired, but Wetjen played a critical role in the victory.

He averaged 49 yards on three punts highlighted by a 62-yard score off Eckley. Eckley has a big leg but is known for outkicking his coverage. The two meet again to see who wins this matchup. I think Wetjen takes it again.

8. Pittsburgh Won’t Be As Strong In One-Score Games

Ideally, Pittsburgh wins games in less nail-biting fashion. But the on-paper look of the schedule coupled with the reality of tight divisional games makes it unlikely the Steelers will dominate by healthy margins. Mike Tomlin was the NFL’s best coach in one-score games. Mike McCarthy has positive marks there but even one or two tight losses is enough to change the course of a 17-game season.

My prediction is Pittsburgh finishes close to .500 in these games this year.

9. The Secondary Will Feel Its Lack Of Early Reps

On paper, the Steelers have one of their best secondary units in years. Cornerback is especially deep. However, it’s been hard to do anything more than project the talent of the unit. Joey Porter Jr. sat out the entire spring, training camp, and preseason before returning to practice last week. Jalen Ramsey missed camp with a knee injury. Jaquan Brisker and Brandin Echols also missed time while DeShon Elliott is out for at least the first month.

If the coaching staff and scheme were the same, the impact wouldn’t be as severe. With a new system implemented, there could be plenty of rust to knock off early. A recipe for a slower start.

10. A Special Teams Fake Draws A Big Reaction

Good or bad, that’s what we’ll find out. Expect new special teams coordinator Danny Crossman to be more aggressive and creative than Danny Smith. If a fake punt, field goal, or some other trickery works, it’ll be a brilliant call. If it fails, the egg will be on Crossman’s face.

I can’t predict which way those chips will fall, but we’ll be talking about a fake in the aftermath of at least one of Pittsburgh’s games this year.

Season Prediction Record: 8-9, No Playoffs

I know, I know. It’s not an optimistic view of the season. I wrestled with my thoughts and feelings on the 2026 Steelers for several months. On the surface, the roster looks better and the franchise made improvements at every stage of roster construction. There’s a case to be made Pittsburgh can finish the year with 11 wins and act as a serious contender for a repeat AFC North crown.

I kept coming back to the factors I can see hurting this team. Pittsburgh’s ability to win in close games, against the division, and for the defense to create its usual high number of takeaways. All three could be pain points, and I don’t know if McCarthy will be as strong here as Mike Tomlin was.

Even if other areas of the team improve, and it’s reasonable to assert they will, those are three major categories to see regression in.

Change was needed. The Steelers made it. Back in the day, when there was a logjam, they’d use dynamite to blow it up and get things unstuck. But that takes damage, at least in the short term, and that’s how I think this first year under Mike McCarthy goes.