REASON TO BELIEVE: Tampa Bay eliminated a potential distraction by signing Baker Mayfield to a three-year, $165 million extension this week. With No. 6 happy and healthy heading into the season, the Buccaneers can count on the offense to get back on track behind their feisty field general. The veteran quarterback will get into the huddle with a dynamic set of pass catchers around him. Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan give the Buccaneers a mix of big-play specialists and chain movers who will force opponents to make tough choices on how to defend a passing game that wants to push the ball downfield while operating at an efficient clip. While it appears McMillan will miss the season opener with a knee injury, that doesn’t seem to be a long-term issue.
Additionally, the presence of multi-talented running backs Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell makes the checkdown game dangerous, giving Mayfield the opportunity to exploit underneath coverage with swings, screens and option routes. If the Buccaneers can find a consistent rushing game to complement their explosive aerial attack, it is going to be hard to keep Mayfield and Co. from lighting up scoreboards each week.
CAUSE FOR CONCERN: Todd Bowles’ reputation as a defensive guru took a hit in 2025, as his unit failed to live up to its lofty standard. After revamping the coaching staff and retooling the lineup on that side of the ball, the Buccaneers aim to have a defense that looks more like the ones Bowles has constructed throughout his tenure as a defensive play-caller. However, Tampa Bay is counting on several rookies (OLB Rueben Bain Jr., LB Josiah Trotter and DB Keionte Scott) and free-agent additions (LB Alex Anzalone and DT A’Shawn Robinson) to mesh with a solid collection of holdovers (DTs Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey, OLB Yaya Diaby and S Antoine Winfield Jr., to name a few) to spark a defense that traditionally bombards opponents with relentless pressure from every angle.
Although the defensive makeover is expected to boost a pass rush that only produced 37 sacks a season ago — the franchise’s lowest total since 2017 — the Buccaneers do not have a proven sack producer in the lineup. Bain could become that guy, but he’s yet to take a regular-season snap in the NFL. Until the Bucs find a way to disrupt opponents on passing downs, the defense’s lack of pressure and takeaways could lead to a one-sided approach to winning games that will not hold up against the league’s elite teams.
MY FORECAST: Carolina snapped Tampa Bay’s four-year reign atop the NFC South last season, but Buccaneers should be able to reclaim their crown in 2026. Beyond that? Well, with a nice collection of playmakers at his disposal, Mayfield has enough “take over the game” ability to give Tampa a fighting chance against the heavyweights in the NFC. If the defense rediscovers its suffocating ways under Bowles’ direction, I see the Bucs earning the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC’s postseason tournament, with a chance to make an unexpected run at Super Bowl LXI.