The projected Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 is edging upward, according to fresh estimates from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL).
In its July update released Tuesday, the advocacy group forecast a 2.7 percent increase in benefits for next year—up from the forecasts of 2.6 percent in June and 2.5 percent in May—reflecting recent signs that inflation is running hotter, pushing everyday costs higher.
The 2025 COLA, set at 2.5 percent, took effect in January. While the new projection offers a modest boost for beneficiaries, the Senior Citizens League cautioned that the figure could shift again before the Social Security Administration (SSA) makes its official announcement in October. The group’s model will continue to incorporate fresh inflation data over the coming months.
“With the COLA announcement around the corner, seniors across America are holding their breath,” TSCL executive director, Shannon Benton, said. “While a higher COLA would be welcome because their monthly benefits will increase, many will be disappointed. TSCL’s research shows that many seniors believe the COLA does not adequately capture the inflation they experience.”
How the COLA Is Determined
The SSA calculates the annual adjustment using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures inflation based on the spending habits of younger, urban workers rather than retirees. Since 1975, COLAs have been applied each year using CPI-W data from the third quarter—July through September—with the intention of keeping benefits in step with rising costs for essentials like housing, food and medical care.
Stock image/file photo: A Social Security card with U.S. Dollars.
Stock image/file photo: A Social Security card with U.S. Dollars.
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Who Receives the COLA Boost
The annual COLA applies across all programs administered by the SSA, including:
Retirement benefits, including spousal benefits based on a partner’s earningsSurvivor benefitsSupplemental Security Income (SSI)Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI)
If the 2.7 percent estimate holds, the tens of millions of Americans relying on these benefits will see the increase reflected in their monthly payments beginning in January 2026.
COLA Concerns
Concerns have been raised over President Donald Trump‘s nomination of Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics this week.
Less than two weeks earlier, he had dismissed the agency’s former commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, following the release of weaker-than-expected job figures. His nomination has heightened concerns that future BLS reports could be influenced to serve Trump’s political goals.
The BLS is the federal agency that produces key economic indicators, including the CPI-W. As commissioner, Antoni would oversee the collection, calculation, and release of inflation data.
Antoni has long argued that Social Security is financially unsustainable and should be phased out. In a 2024 radio interview, he labeled the 90-year-old program a “Ponzi scheme,” saying current beneficiaries should continue receiving payments but warning that future retirees should not count on it.
“Seniors should know that the COLA on their Social Security benefits is tied to the CPI,” former Treasury official Bruce Bartlett, who describes himself as “[o]nce a conservative, now progressive,” posted on X this week. “If the CPI is artificially reduced, as Trump wants, your benefits will be reduced.”