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Wow…how time flies when you’re setting fantasy football lineups, grinding the waiver wire, and attempting to keep up with the 10,000 injuries in the NFL. I can’t believe we are about to say goodbye to seven weeks of NFL action. Every week has been its own microcosm of insanity.
On this week’s episode of NFL Gone Wild, we have a possible shootout between the Lions and Packers, an NFL (L)East showdown of broken teams with the Cowboys and Eagles, the AFC North-leading Browns look to grab their fifth win of the season, and a ton more.
Let’s make sense of it. Welcome to the Week 7 Primer. Enjoy.
NE vs. CHI | PIT vs. NO | SF vs. ATL | CLE vs. TEN | IND vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. HOU | DEN vs. ARI | GB vs. DET | LAR vs. LV | KC vs. SEA | DAL vs. PHI
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Fantasy Football Primer: Week 7
New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
Bears Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Rhamondre Stevenson remained New England’s lead back last week, but TreVeyon Henderson and Corey Kiner cut into his early-down workload. Stevenson played 60.3% of the snaps with a 42.9% route share, but he had only 38.9% of the rushing work. Stevenson finished with 14 touches and 36 total yards. Overall, he has averaged 14.3 touches and 62.3 total yards this season. Among 38 qualifying rushers, Stevenson is 17th in yards after contact per attempt and 11th in missed tackle rate. Stevenson should return RB2 value this week. Chicago has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest rushing success rate, and the third-most yards before contact per attempt.
Luther Burden is the WR26 in fantasy points per game after finishing as the WR13 in weekly scoring last week. Burden has a 20.7% target share with 2.31 YPRR, nine red zone targets, three deep targets, and a 26.2% first-read share. It won’t be a cakewalk for Burden this week, but he could see an elevated target share with Rome Odunze likely dealing with a Christian Gonzalez shadow. Burden has the talent and a smart playcaller to overcome a tough matchup. New England has limited slot receivers to the ninth-fewest yards per target and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per opportunity.
AJ Brown returned to the huddle last week. He played his usual role as New England’s clear alpha, but he had a rough day at the office with four drops. Brown finished with only three receptions and 27 receiving yards, but his usage was fantastic. Brown had a 28.1% target share (94.3% route share), three red zone targets, one deep target, and a 42.9% first-read share. This is a wonderful bounce-back spot for Brown. Chicago has the ninth-highest rate of single-high (56.1%). Against single high, Brown has had a 29% target-per-route run rate this season. Yes, he has produced only 1.0 YPRR against single high, but that is small sample variance. In 2023-2025, against single high, Brown had a 35% target-per-route run rate and 3.53 YPRR against single high. He has historically shredded single high and could do so again this week against a secondary that has allowed the most yards per target and fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers.
Colston Loveland has started to resemble the player that we thought he’d be for 2026 over the last three weeks. Yes, during this stretch he has only been the TE14 in fantasy points per game, but in those three games his usage has trended upward. Since Week 4, Loveland has had a 19.1% target share (70.2% route share) with 1.62 YPRR, six red zone targets, and a 26.2% first-read share. Loveland could be a TE1 again this week with targets being pushed in his direction, with Rome Odunze facing a Christian Gonzalez shadow. New England is 17th in yards per target while allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends. New England held Dalton Kincaid, Pat Freiermuth, and Brenton Strange to quiet days, but Brock Bowers destroyed them with eight grabs, 110 receiving yards, and a score. I don’t project a blow-up game for Loveland, but he could still be a low-end TE1 this week.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Roschon Johnson has been solid over the last two weeks. Over the last two games, he has had a 39.7% snap rate, a 31.6% rushing share, and a 34.1% route share (11.8% target share). He has averaged 12.5 touches and 62.5 total yards with RB31 and RB15 finishes in weekly scoring. Johnson hasn’t been impressive on a per-touch basis with only 1.82 yards after contact per attempt and a 14% missed tackle rate. New England could allow him to flirt with strong flex value again this week. New England has allowed the 11th-highest rushing success rate, the sixth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the 17th-highest missed tackle rate.
Last week, TreVeyon Henderson had only a 23.5% snap share, a 19.4% rushing share, and a 20% route share (3.1% target share). Henderson finished with eight touches and 40 total yards. Corey Kiner cut into his early-down load. I expect Henderson to flirt with 8-10 touches again this week as a middling flex with a good matchup. Among 38 qualifying backs, Henderson is 28th in yards after contact per attempt and 31st in missed tackle rate. Henderson likely needs a score to pay off this week, but if he rips off a big run, he could get it. Chicago has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest rushing success rate, and the third-most yards before contact per attempt.
Efton Chism is an interesting deep-league dart throw this week. Over the last two games, Chism has had snap shares of 80.3% and 61.8% with route shares of 65.8% and 25.7%. His target share in these two games has also been all over the map with 17.6% and 3.1%. What gives me hope for Chism is his usage against single-high this season. Chicago has the ninth-highest rate of single-high (56.1%). Against single-high, Chism leads the team with a 32% TPRR and 2.42 YPRR. With the Pats always deploying matchup-specific game plans weekly, it wouldn’t shock me at all if Chism is heavily utilized this week. If that’s the case, Chism could have a strong performance. Chicago has allowed the most yards per target and fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, DeMario Douglas had a 58.8% snap rate, a 74.3% route share, a 25% target share, 86 receiving yards (3.31 YPRR), and a 19% first-read share. It was the third time this season that Douglas has had a route share north of 70%, but he also has two games where his route share dipped below 60%. His usage has been up and down over the last two seasons, which makes me skeptical that it will hold in Week 7. Overall, Douglas has a 65.2% route share, a 14.8% target share, 1.62 YPRR, three red zone targets, eight deep targets, and a 16.9% first-read share. Chicago has the ninth-highest rate of single-high (56.1%). Against single-high, Douglas has a 23% TPRR, but his YPRR has fallen from 1.85 to 1.40. Douglas is flex-viable this week, but there’s a ton of volatility with his projection. Chicago has allowed the 14th-fewest yards per target and the 15th-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers. It’s essentially a neutral matchup for Douglas.
Hunter Henry is the TE18 in fantasy points per game, with TE1 finishes in weekly scoring in each of the last two games (TE8, TE6). Henry has a 12.2% target share, 1.63 YPRR, five red zone targets, one deep target, and a 13.6% first-read share. Henry is on the streaming radar this week against a defense that has allowed the tenth-most yards per target and the 14th-most fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends this season.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
I’m worried Rome Odunze will see Christian Gonzalez all day. If that’s the case, I worry Odunze will have a quiet game. Odunze is the WR61 in fantasy points per game with only one outing this season with at least double-digit PPR points. Odunze has a 15.4% target share with 1.67 YPRR, four red zone targets, seven deep targets, and a 17.5% first-read share. Christian Gonzalez has followed DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba this season on 65.4-86.4% of their routes. Wilson and Metcalf were held scoreless and below 50 receiving yards when lined up opposite Gonzalez. Sit Odunze this week, if possible.
NE vs. CHI | PIT vs. NO | SF vs. ATL | CLE vs. TEN | IND vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. HOU | DEN vs. ARI | GB vs. DET | LAR vs. LV | KC vs. SEA | DAL vs. PHI
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints
Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings
Saints Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Aaron Rodgers is the QB18 in fantasy points per game with at least 22 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He could easily be adding to the 20-plus fantasy point total this week. Among 33 qualifying passers, Rodgers has the tenth-fewest yards per attempt and the ninth-lowest passing success rate while ranking 20th in highly accurate throw rate and 26th in hero throw rate. Rodgers has flip-flopped between low aDOT point guard and Jameis Rodgers this season. Despite his weekly volatility, Rodgers could have a nice Week 7 against a struggling Saints pass defense. New Orleans has allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passing success rate, and the sixth-highest CPOE.
DK Metcalf is heating up as the WR32 in fantasy points per game with top 20 finishes in two of his last three games in weekly scoring (WR16, WR8). Metcalf has a 22.1% target share with 1.35 YPRR, three red zone targets, 12 deep targets (third most among wide receivers), and a 31.5% first-read share. Metcalf should shred the Saints secondary this week. New Orleans has the third-highest rate of single high (64.2%) in the NFL and has struggled to defend deep passing. Against single high, Metcalf’s TPRR has increased from 20% to 23% while his YPRR has risen from 1.17 to 1.44. Historically Metcalf has been MUCH better against single high. Metcalf should also convert his robust downfield role into fantasy production this week against a secondary that has allowed the eighth-most deep passing yards and the highest passing success rate to downfield passing. The Saints have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 15th in receiving fantasy points per game to the position.
Over the last two games, Germie Bernard has been the WR11 in fantasy points per game. He has had a 25% target share with 2.42 YPRR, four red zone targets, zero deep targets, and a 23.1% first-read share. Bernard should keep the party bus rolling this week. New Orleans has the third-highest rate of single high (64.2%) in the NFL. Since Week 5, against single high, Bernard has had a 23% target-per-route run rate and 2.59 YPRR. The Saints have allowed the 12th-most yards per target to slot receivers while ranking 15th in fantasy points per opportunity against the position.
Juwan Johnson is the TE9 in fantasy points per game, but he, too, has fallen on hard times over the last two games with 5.6 and zero PPR points. Johnson has a 13.6% target share with 1.43 YPRR, seven red zone targets, one deep target, and a 16.9% first-read share. This week, Johnson should return to the friendly confines of TE1 land against a defense that has allowed the ninth-most yards per target and the sixth-most fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends.
Well, my deep dive on Darnell Washington went well last week, as Washington was the TE9 in fantasy scoring and could have finished even higher if he had secured a target in the end zone and hauled in a second touchdown. This week, we’re going back to the Washington well. Last week, Washington had a 71.1% snap rate, a 50% route share, a 10.2% target share (19% TPRR), 25 receiving yards (0.93 YPRR), and a 9.4% first-read share. I dove deep last week into Washington and Pat Freiermuth‘s splits against single and two high, so I won’t rehash all of that this week with both tight ends. Freiermuth isn’t in this week’s Primer because his usage against single high has been non-existent over the last two seasons. The Saints have the third-highest rate of single high (64.2%). Against single high this season, Washington has a 24% TPRR and 1.86 YPRR. Both are strong numbers. New Orleans has allowed the eighth-most yards per target and fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends. Washington is back on the streaming radar this week.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Last week, Tyler Shough bounced back as the QB2 for the week, which was wonderful to see after two down outings and the news that he has been playing through broken bones in his non-throwing hand. Overall, Shough is the QB11 in fantasy points per game. Among 33 qualifying passers, Shough is 26th in yards per attempt, 20th in passing success rate, tenth in catchable target rate, and eighth in hero throw rate. Shough should see enough passing volume to flirt with QB1 production this week, but it’s not a great matchup. Pittsburgh is 19th in yards per attempt and 16th in passing success rate allowed, but they have also held passers to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per dropback and the eighth-lowest EPA per dropback. This is a below-average matchup for Shough.
The Saints’ backfield has dissolved into a gross three-way committee with Kendre Miller handling the bulk of the early-down work. Last week, he finished with 22 touches (20 carries) and 70 total yards. He had a 45.6% snap rate, 52.6% of the rushing work, and a 15.6% route share (6.7% target share). With the early-down volume, Miller is a viable flex option again this week. Miller’s per-tough rushing efficiency has been putrid, though. He has only a 2.4% explosive run rate, 1.73 yards after contact per attempt, and a 12% missed tackle rate. If the Saints are playing from behind this week, Miller could easily get gamescripted out of the Week 7 action, so that also has to be added to his volatility. Pittsburgh hasn’t been an imposing run defense, allowing the 14th-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt, and the 14th-highest missed tackle rate. Miller needs the Saints to play with a lead this week and a touchdown to likely pay off for fantasy purposes. Both are questionable propositions in Week 7.
Rico Dowdle returned to the field last week. He finished with ten touches and 49 total yards. Dowdle had only a 27.6% snap rate, 31.8% of the rushing work, and a 13% route share (6.1% target share). Jaylen Warren is the clear backfield leader now. Dowdle did split the red zone work with Warren, with both backs having a 45.5% red zone snap rate and one red zone rushing attempt last week, so he does still have some touchdown equity in this offense. That and the wonderful matchup put Dowdle on the low end of the flex radar this week. New Orleans has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the highest rushing success rate, and the ninth-highest missed tackle rate.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Alvin Kamara has been a limited committee back over the last two weeks, averaging seven touches and 37.5 total yards. Since Week 5, he has played only 25% of the snaps with an 18.2% rushing share and a 17.2% route share (10.9% target share). Yes, he has three scores across his last three games, but we can’t count on a touchdown to save his fantasy day weekly. Kamara is a weekly sit until his role changes in the New Orleans backfield.
Devaughn Vele‘s star has dimmed somewhat over the last two games. Vele is the WR31 in fantasy points per game, but he has managed double-digit PPR points only once in his last four games. Vele has a 17% target share with 1.30 YPRR, five red zone targets, seven deep targets, and a 21.9% first-read share. Unfortunately, I don’t see Vele turning around his fantasy fortunes this week. Pittsburgh has been tough against slot receivers, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per target and the fewest fantasy points per opportunity to the position. Sit Vele this week.
NE vs. CHI | PIT vs. NO | SF vs. ATL | CLE vs. TEN | IND vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. HOU | DEN vs. ARI | GB vs. DET | LAR vs. LV | KC vs. SEA | DAL vs. PHI
San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons
49ers Players & Weekly Rankings
Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
N/A
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
N/A
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Michael Penix is the QB21 in fantasy points per game after having a banner Week 6 as the QB5 in weekly scoring. Among 33 qualifying passers, Penix is third in yards per attempt, 11th in CPOE, 30th in highly accurate throw rate, 21st in catchable target rate, and tenth in hero throw rate. Last week was his first game of the season with more than 15 fantasy points. I don’t see a standout performance in the cards for Penix for Week 7. The 49ers pass defense has been electric this season, allowing the ninth-fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-lowest passing success rate, and the 13th-lowest EPA per dropback. Penix is a low-end QB2 for this week.
Kyle Pitts‘ usage has trended up over the last two games as the TE7 and TE2 in weekly scoring. Since Week 5, Pitts has had a 67.1% route share, a 71.1% snap rate, a 19.1% target share, 1.92 YPRR, five red zone targets, and a 20% first-read share. All of those metrics are outstanding. Unfortunately, I don’t think Pitts keeps the train rolling this week. The 49ers have the tenth-highest rate of single high (55.7%). Since Week 5, against single high, Pitts has had only a 10% TPRR and 0.25 YPRR. The 49ers have also held tight ends to the seventh-fewest yards per target and the second-fewest fantasy points per opportunity. Sit Pitts this week, but better days are ahead for him.
NE vs. CHI | PIT vs. NO | SF vs. ATL | CLE vs. TEN | IND vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. HOU | DEN vs. ARI | GB vs. DET | LAR vs. LV | KC vs. SEA | DAL vs. PHI
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans
Browns Players & Weekly Rankings
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Since Week 2, Tony Pollard has been the RB34 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.4 touches and 67.8 total yards. During that span, he has had two RB2 weekly finishes (RB16, RB24). Across his last five games, he has had a 56.9% snap rate, 68.4% of the rushing work, a 30.6% route share, and a 5.5% target share. Among 39 qualifying backs, Pollard has been solid, ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt and 21st in explosive run rate. If Cam Ward can provide somewhere in the vicinity of decent quarterback play and move the offense, Pollard could be an RB2 again this week. Cleveland’s run defense has been horrible, allowing the second-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest rushing success rate, the fourth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-highest missed tackle rate.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Deshaun Watson is the QB23 with no weekly finishes higher than QB15 since Week 2. Watson has continued to play horribly. I think it’s only a matter of time for him to be benched, but the fact that the Browns are winning on the back of their defense will continue to buy him more starts. Among 33 qualifying passers, Watson is 16th in yards per attempt and passing success rate, but he has the eighth-lowest aDOT, the tenth-highest off-target rate, and the eighth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Watson also has the third-highest pressure to sack rate with the 15th-lowest EPA per dropback. Fortunately for Watson, the Titans’ secondary has been horrible, so he could post decent QB2 numbers again this week. Tennessee has allowed the 11th-most yards per attempt, the eighth-highest passing success rate, and the second-highest CPOE. The Titans also have the eighth-lowest pressure, so Watson should see clean pockets this week.
KC Concepcion is the WR74 in fantasy points per game, which is rough, but he has been playing much better than that fantasy production would have you believe. Among 100 qualifying receivers, Concepcion is 12th in separation and 38th in route win rate. He also leads the team with a 19% target share, 26.7% first-read share, and 27.3% designed target rate. Sadly, he has only produced 1.21 YPRR with three red zone targets and three deep targets. Concepcion hasn’t finished as a WR3 or higher in weekly scoring this season, but this could be the week. Tennessee has allowed the second-most yards per target and the fourth-most fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers.
Denzel Boston is the WR23 in fantasy points per game while ranking 36th in separation and tenth in route win rate among 100 qualifying receivers. Boston has an 18.4% target share with 1.82 YPRR, four red zone targets, 11 deep targets, and a 22.4% first-read share. This week, Boston has another nice coverage matchup. Tennessee has the eighth-highest two-high rate (57.9%). Against two high, Boston has seen his TPRR increase from 14% to 21% and his YPRR jump from 0.53 to 3.33. Boston is a strong flex again this week. Tennessee has allowed the ninth-most yards per target and 13th-most receiving fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Wan’Dale Robinson is the WR36 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 weekly finishes in his last three games (WR19, WR28). Touchdowns and cheap PPR value have helped to keep Robinson’s fantasy value afloat. In his last three games, he has scored twice while snagging at least six receptions twice. Robinson has a 20.3% target share with 1.29 YPRR (6.03 aDOT), five red zone targets, three deep targets, and a 26.1% first-read share. Robinson offers sneaky flex value again this week with a good matchup. The Browns have allowed the fifth-most yards per target and the eighth-most fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Cam Ward is the QB30 in fantasy points per game. He’s not a viable fantasy option currently. Ward hasn’t managed more than 10.4 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Ward hasn’t thrown for more than 224 yards in any game this season, nor has he had multiple passing touchdowns in any game. We’re nearing the point where Ward could get benched during a game in any week. I’m not plugging a player with this lack of production and risk profile into any fantasy lineup anytime soon.
Todd Monken stated that he’s optimistic that Quinshon Judkins could be back this week. I’ll update his outlook and the outlook for this backfield on Friday. He opened this week with a limited practice (ankle).
Carnell Tate is the WR42 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 weekly finishes in his last three games (WR36, WR12). Tate’s problem isn’t related to his play at all but to that of his quarterback. Tate has a 24.9% target share, 2.15 YPRR, two red zone targets, six deep targets, and a 33% first-read share. His weekly volatility has been directly tied to Cam Ward. We’ll see if Tate can overcome a tough matchup this week and Ward’s play. He’s a volatile flex for Week 7. Cleveland has allowed the eighth-lowest yards per target and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers.
Harold Fannin is the TE13 in fantasy points per game, with two TE1 finishes this season in weekly scoring (TE3, TE12). Fannin has a 16.7% target share with 0.97 YPRR, three red zone targets, one deep target, and a 14.7% first-read share. This week’s matchup is more favorable for KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston and tougher for Fannin. How many weapons can Deshaun Watson support weekly? Usually one, and maybe some weeks two, so this week I’m inclined to stream a tight end over starting Fannin. Tennessee has allowed the second-fewest yards per target and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends.
NE vs. CHI | PIT vs. NO | SF vs. ATL | CLE vs. TEN | IND vs. MIN | MIA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | CIN vs. BAL | NYG vs. HOU | DEN vs. ARI | GB vs. DET | LAR vs. LV | KC vs. SEA | DAL vs. PHI
