LYNCHBURG, Va. (WSET) — With Election Day less than a week away, Virginia’s 5th District congressional race is drawing attention, not just from voters, but from people wagering money on the outcome.
The contest between Republican incumbent John McGuire and Democratic challenger Tom Perriello is attracting the most action of Virginia’s Congressional races on two trading betting sites: Kalshi and Polymarket.
The platforms allow users to trade on the outcomes of races across the country.
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Across the two sites, more than $839,000 has been traded on the 5th District race. That compares with about $90,000 on Virginia’s 9th District race and about $200,000 on the 6th District race.
ABC13 political analyst Dr. David Richards said the 5th District is drawing the most money because the outcome is less certain than many other contests.
“So the 5th is that kind of rare option where nobody’s really 100% sure. And so if you bet the correct way, you know you’re going to win some money. And if not, of course, you lose the money. So I think people are willing to take that gamble,” Richards said.
On both Polymarket and Kalshi, traders are giving McGuire the edge, but only by a few percentage points.
Richards said political betting has become increasingly common over the years, but he also emphasized that ultimately, there’s no substitute for making your voice heard at the polls.