The Houston Rockets are 5-0, and the vibes are about as high as they’ve ever been during Kevin Durant’s time with the franchise.
The Rockets have outscored their opponents by 71 points through the first five games of the season, and during their dominant start, Durant has been Houston’s No. 1 hype man on the bench, Fred VanVleet had his best game in two years and Ime Udoka even cracked a smile two games in a row.
Anything is possible. After several prominent players across the league suffered significant injuries in the first week of the season, momentum is building behind those who believe Houston can be the best team in the West, or at least finish with the best record.
And that’s the thing about getting off to a hot start: It feels like all the goals that were laid out before the season are suddenly within reach.
But whether times are good or bad, always remember two things in October: There’s still a lot of the season left, and things change quickly in this league.
So how much of what we’ve seen so far from the Rockets is a trend that we expect to continue, and how much of it is fool’s gold?
Let’s look at some of the most relevant storylines and decide what’s real and what’s fake:
Brunson scores 38, AJ Dybantsa makes NBA debut and Stephen Curry drops 44
Rockets’ early dip defensively
Houston had its best defensive performance of the season in Wednesday’s 132-100 win over the struggling Milwaukee Bucks, but it also had some serious ups and downs on defense through the first four games.
Wednesday’s win will push them back into the top 10, but the Rockets ranked No. 15 in defensive efficiency heading into the Bucks game. This is the same team that finished No. 5 and No. 6, respectively, in defensive rating over the past two seasons.
Per Cleaning the Glass, the Rockets allowed opponents to shoot a whopping 69.4 percent at the rim through the first four games of the season. A big part of that is the turnover problems the offense has experienced, which have led to a bunch of easy buckets on the other end.
They’re also giving up a ton of 3-pointers, but opponents are shooting a lowly 28.9 percent from the 3-point line in Houston’s five wins. As good as the Rockets are on the perimeter, it’s only a matter of time before the other team starts making shots.
As useful as VanVleet has been on offense, his presence has given opposing teams an easy target if they want to mismatch-hunt.
So is there legitimate reason to be concerned about the Rockets’ defense?
I don’t think so. Marcus Smart has missed the last three games with a left forearm strain, and he’ll make a big impact on this team’s defense. Amen Thompson is also still rounding into his All-Defensive form as he adjusts to a different role than he had last season.
This group still plays with the physicality and grit that’s become its signature in recent seasons. Udoka will stay on his team about taking the defensive end seriously. It’s been a little rough at times early, but I expect them to get back on track soon enough.
Şengün playing at an All-NBA level
Although it wasn’t as devastating as Oklahoma City losing Jalen Williams or Minnesota losing Anthony Edwards, Rockets fans were disappointed to hear that star center Alperen Şengün would miss Wednesday’s game and potentially the next few as he nurses a sore lower back.
Through the first four games of the season, Şengün has averaged 24.5 points, nine rebounds and seven assists on 58/67/77 shooting splits. His numbers have been absurd, but more than his production has stood out.
He’s been more assertive with the ball in his hands. He’s been throwing his weight around in the paint against any big man opposing teams throw at him. While Thompson’s spectacular block got all the attention after Houston’s wild win over San Antonio last week, Şengün’s dominance on the low block helped Houston take control late in that game. And it’s not just what he’s doing around the basket.
Şengün is 6 of 9 from 3-point range to start the season, and his playmaking has been an essential aspect of Houston’s vast improvement in half-court situations.
Şengün has been an All-Star the last two seasons, but he’s looking more like a serious All-NBA contender as he continues to improve as an all-around offensive weapon. Can he keep it up?
Once he gets healthy, I think this is the Şengün we’ll see. The shooting numbers won’t be so outrageous, but having VanVleet back makes such a massive difference for Şengün. Maybe more than anyone else on the team.
Şengün is getting the ball closer to the basket more often, and Houston is providing him enough space to cook folks in one-on-one situations.
If the Rockets keep looking this good and start separating themselves as a potential No. 1 seed, Şengün could even be thrown around in way-too-early MVP conversations. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Durant’s career-low usage
The Rockets have been so good through the first five games that their 38-year-old face of the franchise has almost become an afterthought in some of them … and that’s a good thing.
Before Wednesday’s win, Durant’s usage rate was at 24.3 percent, by far the lowest number of his career and down from last season’s then-career low of 27.1.
As Şengün, Thompson and other members of Houston’s young core have shown their maturation, Durant has willingly taken a step back and given them the freedom to take more control on offense. Although his usage was at a career low last season, it felt like Houston couldn’t function on offense when Durant wasn’t on the floor because of the attention he draws and the spacing he provides when he doesn’t have the ball.
Durant’s usage probably won’t be this low for the rest of the season, but it’s great news for the Rockets that they don’t have to demand so much from their best player in his 19th season. They can focus more on making sure he’s at his best once April arrives.
When he has asserted himself, Durant has made it clear that his game hasn’t slipped and that he can knock his patented middies from 12 to 18 feet away whenever he feels like it.
But the Rockets don’t need Durant to play at a superstar level to be at their best. That’s the biggest positive development this team could’ve asked for this season’s group.
Reed + Tari lineups domination
Houston’s revamped starting five got most of the attention during the preseason, but it’s been some of their bench units that have steamrolled opponents in these early wins.
Per DataBallr, the Rockets have outscored opponents by a stunning 21.1 points per 100 possessions when Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason share the floor.
While those two have gotten a couple of spot starts to begin the season due to injuries, they’ve been a force as a tandem coming off the bench with their energy and disruptiveness on defense.
Before the season, I predicted that Eason would become a viable Sixth Man of the Year candidate, and he’s lived up to my expectations. He’s been as impactful as ever on defense and as a rebounder. But he’s also shown considerable improvement with his ballhandling and finishing around the rim.
Sheppard remains a serious weapon from 3 and as an underrated passer. His defense still isn’t great, but he’s clearly trying to improve in areas where he struggled last season.
Do I think this duo will keep shredding other bench units? Sort of.
I’m still a big believer in Eason’s role on this team and the impact he can make. I remain skeptical about what Sheppard’s role will be once Smart is healthy again.
Still, the Rockets needed to see serious improvement in their overall depth, and the combination of Sheppard and Eason has played a big part in making that happen. The more these young guys grow, the more dangerous Houston will be down the line.