That’s 11 players out of 53 who missed even a single game during their MVP seasons. Many of those came at the end of the regular season, with players sitting out to prep for a postseason run. Aside from Rodgers’ positive COVID test in 2021, no QB has missed a game due to injury in their MVP season since Steve McNair in 2003.
Of the five MVPs who missed more than a single game, three were running backs, who racked up enough stats to run away with the award — Emmitt Smith famously sat out the first two games in a contract standoff with the Cowboys in 1993. McNair split the award with Peyton Manning after missing a couple of late games with calf and ankle injuries; the Titans QB led the NFL in passer rating and yards per attempt that year.
MVP voters have leaned toward QBs who rack up stats and stay on the field. In 2016, there was some chatter, particularly in the Northeast, as to whether Tom Brady, who missed the first four games of the season due to the Deflategate suspension, should be considered for the MVP after returning to lead the Pats to an 11-1 record with a 28-2 TD-INT ratio. Brady finished second to the Falcons’ Matt Ryan with 20% of the vote.
Montana’s 1989 season for San Francisco sits as the lone outlier. Despite missing three games, Montana was the best QB on the best team in the NFL, winning the MVP vote in a landslide (62 of 70 votes). The 49ers QB overcame the lack of counting stats by leading the NFL in all the efficiency categories: 70.2 percent completion rate, a 6.7 TD% rate, 53.7% success rate, 9.1 yards per attempt average, 270.8 yards per game, and set the then-record with a 112.4 passer rating — when 100 passer ratings were uncommon.
That’s Williams’ path to the MVP: Be the most efficient passer on the best team.
The Bears QB currently sits second in completion percentage (70.9), fourth in INT rate (0.6), eight in success rate (49.7), fifth in yards per attempt (8.0), 11th in yards per game (253.4), fifth in passer rating (104.6), while ranking second in QBR (78.9), third in EPA per dropback (0.22) and fifth in win probability added (117.0%).
Overcoming missed games in terms of the MVP race is extremely difficult. Missing three is historically daunting. Williams isn’t there yet, but if he manhandles other defenses like he did a studly Seahawks one on the road, he’ll have a shot at joining Montana as an outlier in the record books.
Now, on to the rankings!